Subramanyan
11-27

The information that a specific emergency Fed intervention last Friday  turned the market positive is rather inaccurate, though general market sentiment has been influenced by Federal Reserve actions and speculation. Quite unlikely there will be a "mindless" rally, and market sentiment remains mixed, influenced by conflicting economic signals and ongoing uncertainty about the Fed's future path. 

It is too early to declare the year's decline definitively over. The market is currently navigating a transitional phase where the "ample reserves" level is being tested, and a clear, sustained direction is not yet established. The actual end of quantitative tightening (QT) has been a significant, positive signal, but global economic uncertainty and differing policy views still pose risks. 

The silver lining is that Fed will end QT on December 1, 2025, which could provide some momentum.

Market Rebound: Will Thanksgiving Week Break the Four-Year Pattern?
The S&P 500 index fell about 2% in November, marking its worst monthly performance since March, while market volatility surged. Citi’s Head of Wealth Management said there is still “some room” for the bull market, and this Wall Street giant has seen record inflows from wealthy clients this year. Last Friday, expectations for a rate cut shifted again, prompting an emergency Fed intervention that ultimately turned the market positive. Will this week see a “mindless” rally? With the Fed set to end QT in December, is this year’s decline over? Are you bullish or bearish?
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