Subramanyan
Subramanyan
Cautious optimism and a balanced head, never disappointed anyone.
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avatarSubramanyan
01-17 20:50
I think storage pricing momentum is expected to carry the stock through the first half of 2026, but significant concerns regarding demand destruction may emerged for the latter half of the year.  Further the present surge is driven by a "strategic reallocation" of manufacturing capacity toward high-margin AI components like High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), which is starving the supply of conventional DRAM and NAND for PCs and smartphones. This could boomerang too. But general consensus is that $Micron Technology(MU)$  could touch $500 in 2026.  So, keeping fingers crossed & a prayer on the lips.
avatarSubramanyan
01-17 20:46
My personal opinion: given the significant rally in anticipation of the Jan' 22 earnings report  and tge overall mixed signals, INTC's stock movement is highly uncertain biz. It could either jump on further earnings surprise or experience a sell the news pullback. Overall I think it is overvalued, increasing volatility risk. Point also to note is that Intel's post-earnings performance is historically volatile: sometimes seeing sharp gains & at other times seeing significant drops, depending heavily on whether results and forward guidance meet expectations. 
avatarSubramanyan
01-17 20:41
Lion-OCBC Hang Seng Tech ETF (HST) is where I am presently working investing my money as of now. I intend to further add  SPDR Straits Times Index ETF (ES3) in 2026 as well.
avatarSubramanyan
01-17 08:06
Think the decline in some investment banking fees reflects a specific challenge, but broader capital markets are showing signs of a resurgence in 2025 and 2026, not a slowdown. So, don't think there is a broader slowdown as such. I also think banks can defend margins in a "higher-for-longer" rate environment through strategic management & stricter risk management. Of course, sustained high rates present challenges though.
(1) After a sharp Golden Dragon surge, is this the start of a sustained China tech uptrend?: The case for a durable re-rating phase in Chinese tech stocks is underpinned by a new expansion phase in Chinese economy, policy shifts favoring productivity and innovation & a structural reallocation of domestic household savings from property and deposits into equities. Foreign capital inflows amid a potentially weaker US dollar in 2026 also support this scenario. So, there is indeed a case for optimism or at least optimistic aggression.  (2) How much upside is left for names like Alibaba?: Growth in $Alibaba(BABA)$  cloud computing and AI segments is expected to be main drivers of its performance in 2026. Goldman Sachs has raised its
$Apple(AAPL)$  Whether Apple has reached a durable bottom after 6 weeks of losses is debatable: Per the bullish views of  Wedbush or Evercore, the current drawdown is a "waiting game" because the market has not yet priced in an "AI premium" for 2026. In my opinion, this is a rather simplistically optimistic take. Now the bearish or neutral view of Forbes, a potential stagnation is warned due to overvaluation that suggests the stock may consolidate rather than rally in the near term at least. Now to conclude, I prefer to take a middle path and feel we can see it at aroubd $300 i.e.  ~ 15% rise. 
Goldman Sachs' potential scenario for gold at $6,000  is driven by both strong fundamental factors and geopolitical uncertainty and,  in theory at least, not solely baswd on fear positioning. Most analysts base their 2026 forecasts around $5,000. So, the $6,000 target is perhaps considered a possibility, particularly in an extreme geopolitical escalation scenario that trump is subjecting the world to. With the USD no more looking like the solid base required for a reserve currency and a safe haven, central banks moving more to gold would also be a great catalyst in pushing up gold. Interesting times.
I believe the market is not underpricing Alphabet's$Alphabet(GOOG)$   AI monetization potential; the current valuation is reasonable given its growth prospects, and a stock price of $400 is most probably achievable in 2026 - contingent on based on strong free cash flow and AI leadership. The potential partnership with $Apple(AAPL)$   is quite a positive for both companies. Its Gemini models, in-house TPUs, and wide consumer reach should help in improving ad conversion and user engagement & contribute to strong financials. 
Yes, I feel, the current high geopolitical risk premium is a significant factor justifying further upside for gold & other precious metals in 2026. In the precious metals space, I think silver has more potential for stronger percentage gains, while gold can also be expected to perform well. Oil, however, faces a more bearish outlook due to a supply surplus if US manages to flood the market with Venezuelan & other sources. This along with expectations of central bank rate cuts and continued institutional buying, suggests potential for further price appreciation in gold, with some banks forecasting prices could reach $5,000 per ounce or higher in various scenarios. However, a sudden de-escalation of global tensions, which ideally would be welcome, could reduce this pre
1. It seems like the semiconductor industry is entering a transitional supercycle where AI demand remains the primary growth engine for both foundries and memory manufacturers. And there seems to be upside in TSM. 2. I'd think there is at least another 25% worth of upside in this stock. 3. Foundries are currently favored for long-term stability due to their technological moats and pricing power in advanced nodes. Memory chips offer higher potential for short-term explosive gains due to the supply crunch but carry greater cyclical risk as capacity eventually balances.
As such the rally in US bank stocks seems to be  driven by combination of resilient economic growth, a resurgence in capital markets activity, favorable regulatory and fiscal policies like Trump's OBBBA. The catch is trump's policies, or lack of it, could easily destabilise matters too.
Only one pick? Then it has to be $Micron Technology(MU)$ . On the contrary if I could pick $Barrick Mining Corporation(B)$  as well.

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