zhingle
11-28
$POP MART(09992)$  

🎨 Pop Mart on the Rise: Can This Rally Hit HK$240?

📈 The Bull Case, The Bear Case & What Smart Money Is Watching.

⭐ Why Pop Mart Is Heating Up Again

Morgan Stanley slashed its target price from HK$382 → HK$325, but unlike a typical downgrade, the tone was constructive rather than bearish. They highlighted:

🔹 1. Valuation Compression May Be Nearing an End

Pop Mart’s P/E has fallen back to levels seen in Q4 2022 & Q4 2023, both periods where strong rebounds followed.

🔹 2. ROE Remains High & The IP Flywheel Still Works

Pop Mart’s real advantage is not toys — it’s IP monetization, character franchises, blind-box mechanics and repeat-purchase psychology.

The company is still a category leader in the global “premium collectible toys” segment.

🔹 3. 2026E P/E of 16x Is Attractive

Against consumer-sector peers and given the growth trajectory, this is a value-growth hybrid opportunity.

🔥 Can Pop Mart Hit HK$240 This Round?

Key Catalyst #1 – Sentiment Rotation

Global consumer-sector rotations remain unfavorable, but Hong Kong small/mid-cap growth is showing tactical inflows.

If this macro wind turns, Pop Mart tends to be one of the first to react.

Key Catalyst #2 – New IP & Collaborations

Pop Mart’s share price often surges around major IP releases or cross-brand collabs (anime, gaming, art designers).

Watch Q1 2026 pipeline announcements.

Key Catalyst #3 – Overseas Acceleration (ESPECIALLY US/SEA)

The US is still early-stage but high-margin. Singapore, Korea, Japan also remain expanding markets.

✨ Overseas surprise = valuation re-rating.

🧠 My Take (as an investor)

Pop Mart is entering a “value + rebound” confluence zone.

• Valuation back to crisis-like levels ✔️

• ROE remains strong ✔️

• IP monetization is durable ✔️

• Macro headwinds are moderating ✔️

If it breaks HK$240, the next leg to HK$280–300 becomes possible with momentum/ETF inflows.

But without sector rotation, it may stay range-bound until earnings or IP catalysts hit.

Pop Mart on the Rise! Can It Hit $240 This Round?
Morgan Stanley has lowered Pop Mart’s target price by nearly 15%, from HK$382 to HK$325, to reflect unfavorable rotations in the global consumer sector. However, the bank notes that despite the near-term difficulty in resolving the market’s bullish-bearish divide, the current 2026 forecast P/E of 16x still offers an attractive entry point for a company with high returns on equity and deep roots in the “adult playfulness” consumption trend. Analysts said the valuation-compression phase for Pop Mart may be nearing a pause, as its P/E has returned to the low levels seen in Q4 2022 and Q4 2023.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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