Weekly Macro Themes: Constructive on Treasuries, EM, and Defensives

TopdownCharts
11-29

Here's the topics I covered:

1. Treasuries: Remain bullish treasuries given cheap valuations, consensus bearish sentiment, cycle-lows in investor allocations, but monitoring technicals/macro for catalysts (and inflation on the risk side).

2. EM Fixed Income: Remain bullish EM sovereign bonds given cheap valuations, improving sentiment, strong technicals, policy support, and a favorable financial conditions backdrop.

3. EM Equities: Remain bullish bigger picture on EM equities given strong longer-term picture, monetary tailwinds, valuations, allocations, but On-Watch given the recent deterioration in technicals.

4. LatAm Equities: With improving technicals, cheap valuations, monetary tailwinds, it otherwise looks good, but risk pricing looks too complacent given imminent geopolitical risks.

5. Defensives: Remain constructive on defensives given extreme cheap relative value, record low investor allocations, and another tentative tick-up in the technicals.

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