Historical Performance: More Gift Than GrinchSince 1950, the S&P 500 has posted positive returns during this seven-day window about 79% of the time, with an average gain of 1.3%. That's significantly better than the typical seven-day return of 0.3% (positive 58% of the time). However, it's not foolproof—2024 bucked the trend with a -2.4% drop in December overall, marking a rare "reverse Santa" where the index fell every trading day from Christmas to New Year's.For broader context:Full December: Historically the strongest month for stocks, averaging +1.5% since 1950.
Post-Rally Indicator: A failed Santa rally often signals a weak January (and sometimes the full year), as per Hirsch's adage: "If Santa should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall." Conversely, a strong one has preceded positive years ~90% of the time when combined with a positive January "trifecta."
Market Turns Higher: Will the December Rally Last?
On the second trading day of December, the market shook off yesterday’s heavy mood, with all three major U.S. indices opening higher.
How do you view the current market sentiment?
Will December once again start low and finish strong?
How are you planning your trades for December—have you already hit your annual targets and are ready to enjoy a holiday, or is there a specific goal you’re focusing on?
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