Smart investors often prefer selling put options over buying them because selling aligns better with probability, time decay, income generation, and disciplined capital allocation. Higher probability of profitMost options expire worthless or lose value. Statistically, the majority of puts finish out-of-the-money.  Put seller: Collects the premium and wins if the stock stays flat, rises, or falls only modestly (above the strike). Win rate is often 60–80%+ depending on strike and tenor.  Time decay works in the seller’s favorOptions lose value as expiration approaches (theta decay), all else equal.  Sellers harvest this decay every day.  Buyers pay for it continuously. Implied volatility (what options price in) tends to exceed subsequent realized volatility on averag

You buy an index like the S&P 500 to spread out your risk. Here’s what you are actually holding. The five largest companies now account for a record share of expected S&P 500 earnings over the next twelve months (around the mid-to-high 20s percent range in recent analyses, with market-cap weights for the top names even higher). Top holdings by weight typically include NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG), with Broadcom (AVGO), Meta (META), Micron (MU), and AMD frequently close behind. The top 10 often represent roughly 37–40% of the index’s market capitalization—levels not seen in decades. It goes further. Information Technology (especially semiconductors) continues to dominate earnings growth. In 2026, the IT sector has been forec

Higher crude prices trigger a rapid reallocation of cash flows and valuations across equity markets. Oil functions simultaneously as a direct revenue driver for producers and a major cost input for the rest of the economy. When prices move higher and remain elevated, the impact is rarely uniform: upstream energy captures the bulk of the upside while fuel-intensive and inflation-sensitive sectors absorb the pressure. The magnitude depends on the speed of the move, absolute price levels relative to corporate cost structures, and whether the rise stems from supply constraints or genuine demand strength. Sectors and Companies Positioned to Benefit Upstream exploration and production companies experience the most direct earnings leverage. Higher realized prices expand operating margins and free

Michael Burry’s current ledger is a sea of red, but he’s still drawing a crowd. The man who earned immortality by shorting the American housing market is currently taking a beating on two fronts: a agonizing, falling-knife long bet on Lululemon and an aggressive crusade against the AI complex. The burning question across Wall Street isn't just whether Burry is wrong—it’s whether he’s finally realized that running a paid newsletter is vastly superior to wrestling a market that refuses to bend to reality. Late last year, Burry pulled the plug on Scion Asset Management, returning outside capital and citing a fundamental disconnect with market pricing, alongside the stifling straightjacket of SEC disclosures. In its place, he launched Cassandra Unchained on Substack. Charging hundreds of dolla

A. MBS already holds the clear majority of Singapore gaming revenue and EBITDA, far outpacing Genting’s Resorts World Sentosa. LVS offers more direct exposure to this premium, expanding asset plus Macau upside.Genting Singapore (or parent Genting) also expands but trails in market share and profitability. Both benefit from Singapore’s tourism growth, yet LVS is the stronger pure-play compounder on the superior property.

table 11. Visa one of my biggest holdings have been quietly compounding while everyone focus are on hyperscalers. Examples from recent data: ~31–34% in 2025/2026 periods; multi-year averages often in the high 20s to low 30s. It comfortably exceeds Visa’s cost of capital (WACC typically estimated around 8%), creating a wide positive spread and substantial economic value. This reflects Visa’s asset-light network business model: enormous operating leverage, high margins (operating margins often ~60%+), strong free cash flow conversion, and limited need for heavy capital reinvestment relative to profits. The global payments network benefits from scale, network effects, brand strength, and high switching costs—classic durable competitive advantages that support ROIC persistence

The simplest idea in the market right now remains this: almost everything comes down to two players. Mr. Dollar and Mr. Yen.Not the latest earnings report. Not the Tesla Cybercab. Not NVIDIA’s newest announcement. Two currencies are setting the price of risk, and neither is playing fair.The dollar is the world’s primary funding and reserve currency. The yen has long been the cheap source of leverage for the global carry trade. When Japanese rates stay low relative to U.S. rates and the yen weakens, borrowed yen floods into higher-yielding assets everywhere. Liquidity expands. Risk appetite rises. When that relationship threatens to reverse, the same leverage unwinds quickly.This is why the current rally keeps getting sold as an AI story. It sounds clean and fundamental. Yet one question ke

The U.S. dollar is being steadily debased, and most people feel it before they understand it. Prices for housing, food, energy, and healthcare keep rising faster than wages for many households. This is not primarily the work of greedy corporations or supply-chain accidents. It is the predictable result of persistent fiscal deficits financed by monetary expansion. When governments spend far beyond tax receipts and central banks accommodate the difference, the currency’s purchasing power erodes. History is unambiguous on this point: every fiat currency eventually suffers this fate to varying degrees. The post-1971 dollar is no exception. For a Singapore-based investor, hedging against dollar debasement carries a unique double constraint: The Currency Drag (S$NEER): Because the Monetary Autho

Gold Following a major early-2026 correction back to fair value (~$3,900/oz), gold is positioned for a gradual, upward trajectory through late 2026. Central bank demand, monetary debasement concerns, and ongoing geopolitical risks provide strong structural tailwinds. Tactical volatility remains likely as markets weigh Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Semis Semis face moderate upside with elevated short-term chop. Hyperscale AI capital expenditures and robust data-center demand supply a solid fundamental floor. However, high valuations, supply-chain normalizations, and potential macro deceleration will keep near-term gains selective, heavily favoring top-tier chipmakers over broader cyclical plays. Stocks Stocks are expected to deliver low-to-moderate single-digit returns fo

 HOOD and IBKR offer contrasting investment cases within the brokerage/fintech space. HOOD is a high-growth, retail-focused disruptor evolving into a financial “super app,” while IBKR is a scaled, automated global platform emphasizing professional trading, low costs, and operating leverage. Both benefit from rising retail and institutional participation, but they differ sharply in valuation, risk profile, growth drivers, and durability. Robinhood (HOOD) Investment Thesis Bull Case   HOOD’s core thesis centers on capturing the next generation of wealth as Millennials and Gen Z enter peak earning years and inherit trillions. Key pillars include: User base and engagement**: 28.4 million funded customers (still growing), with high attach rates for Gold subscriptions (record 4.8

STI recently hit an all-time high near 5,768 (closing) / 5,774 (intraday) in mid-August 2026, now hovering ~5,720–5,736. Banks (DBS, OCBC, UOB; ~57% weight) drove much of the ~24% YTD total return amid strong earnings and wealth inflows. Other majors (e.g., ST Engineering, SGX) also contributed positively. Further upside is possible if earnings growth (~10–12% expected) continues, rates ease, and Singapore’s economy remains resilient (AI, infrastructure, services). Consensus targets and historical patterns after ATHs support moderate gains, though valuations have tightened and profit-taking occurs. Market breadth remains narrow—many non-bank STI stocks lag. Mid-caps (e.g., iEdge Next 50) have underperformed STI YTD (~5–8% vs. 24%), despite rising liquidity, institutional inflows, and SG

Yes, Visa (V) can scale higher. It closed at a new all-time high of ~$382 on Aug 24, 2026. Analysts give a consensus “Strong Buy/Buy” rating with average 12-month targets around $413–$417 (roughly 8–9% upside), and some as high as $450. Drivers include steady double-digit revenue/EPS growth, high margins, share buybacks, and the structural shift to digital payments. Long-term models point to further gains if growth continues. No guarantees—markets fluctuate—but fundamentals support room to run.

Walmart shares took a beating this week after the retail giant posted its slowest U.S. comparable sales growth in six years. Investors weren’t thrilled with the 2.6% comps (ex-fuel) that missed expectations, even though the company beat on revenue and earnings and nudged full-year guidance higher. Management pointed to a couple of culprits: high gas prices tied to the ongoing Iran conflict squeezing lower-income shoppers into trade-offs, and the lingering impact of GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy on how much food people actually buy. The Iran-war-and-fuel story is pretty straightforward. When gas sits above $4 a gallon for months, people notice. Walmart’s CFO basically said you can almost watch the shift in real time once prices cross that psychological line, baskets get tighter. That’

TSMC is still winning the bulk of foundry orders because “having the technology” is only half the battle—execution, trust, yields, scale, and business model matter just as much (or more). TSMC holds roughly 70-73% of global pure-play foundry revenue while Samsung sits at ~6.5-7%. That gap has actually widened in recent quarters despite Samsung’s push on 2nm GAA and some high-profile wins (Tesla AI chips, some Nvidia/Broadcom work, HBM-related logic, etc.). Here’s why the big customers (Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, Broadcom, etc.) keep pouring most of their leading-edge volume into TSMC: 1. Yields and process maturity Samsung has competitive process tech and was earlier with GAA at 3nm, but yields on advanced nodes have lagged. Reports put Samsung’s 2nm around the mid-50s to low-60s perce

I have been watching the Treasury market closely these past few weeks, and the latest move feels like a quiet admission that things are getting uncomfortable at the long end of the curve. Treasury just doubled the size of its liquidity-support buybacks in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year sectors to at least $4 billion per operation. This comes right after the 30-year yield pushed toward levels we haven’t seen in nearly two decades and the 10-year settled in the mid-4.6% range. On paper, these buybacks are still framed as liquidity tools helping dealers offload older, less-traded bonds. In practice, the timing and the sudden upsizing tell a different story. When yields keep rising even on the day of a scheduled buyback, and Treasury responds by expanding the program off-calendar, it look

Hedge funds pile into the next frontier of AI compute and orbital infrastructure The latest batch of 13F filings, covering the second quarter of 2026, reveals an unusual degree of consensus among the industry’s most closely watched managers. Across multi-strategy giants, long-short equity specialists and concentrated growth funds, a clear thematic tilt has emerged: a decisive pivot towards the physical infrastructure required to sustain the artificial intelligence boom, alongside a fresh embrace of newly public space and advanced semiconductor plays. Citadel Advisors, whose equity book swelled to $875bn, disclosed fresh stakes in SpaceX (now trading as SPCX following its mid-year IPO), Cerebras Systems (CBRS) and Quantinuum. Coatue Management, Altimeter Capital, Point72 and Appaloosa all s

Most retail investors think Warren Buffett got rich purely by picking good stocks. They miss the actual engine under the hood: a stacked leverage model. Its a simple setup, but it compounds viciously when done right. Stack 1: Businesses That Are Short Fiat Currency Buffett’s favorite core holdings—like Coca-Cola or Apple—don't just make profits; they act as a natural hedge against money printing. These companies possess: Pricing power: When inflation hits, they raise prices overnight without losing sales. Low capital intensity: They don't need to sink millions into new factories or heavy machinery just to maintain their size. High returns on capital: They generate massive free cash flow that can be re-invested or handed back to shareholders. Because these assets outpace inflation and requi

Michael Burry has doubled down on his shorts against Micron, Oracle, and Nebius, placing a high-profile bet that the artificial intelligence boom is barreling toward a cliff. His thesis rests on a familiar macro-accounting stick: if tech companies depreciate GPUs over five to six years when the hardware actually becomes obsolete in two or three, the entire neocloud sector is sitting on paper-thin profits. In Burry’s eyes, this is the dot-com bubble all over again, stretched out by creative accounting.   The problem with applying a classic short seller’s lens to this cycle is that it misses the physical realities of the current infrastructure squeeze. Earnings updates from Nebius and CoreWeave highlight pricing dynamics, contract terms, and credit underwriting that directly contra

Most stocks look fantastic when the narrative is hot, but very few actually hold up over a decade. Before committing capital to any company, running it through a strict set of quantitative and qualitative filters helps separate true long-term compounders from expensive hype. 1. Identify a Clear, Structural Moat A company must possess a genuine competitive advantage—whether that comes from high switching costs, network effects, patents, scale, or a structural cost edge. Without a clear moat, long-term returns eventually decay toward the cost of capital. 2. Look for the Moat in Gross Margins If a moat is real, it will show up directly in pricing power and gross margin stability. High and durable gross margins prove that a business can pass inflationary pressures onto customers rather than ab

$NVDA 20260807 260.0 CALL$ buy