I found myself staring at my laptop the other day, watching the S&P 500 inch down, and realized I didn’t even know if my portfolio was up or down for November. And I didn’t care to check. Investing is supposed to be a hobby for me, not a stress test. Sure, I can see share prices moving—TLT, TLH, OXY, RC, WEN, SOXS—but I haven’t added up the total. The numbers could be dancing in my favor or mocking me, and either way, I’d rather just watch.
Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bear 3x Shares (SOXS)
Wendy's (WEN)
Occidental (OXY)
Ready Capital Corp (RC)
iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
That said, I can’t completely ignore my holdings. My portfolio is an odd mix: TLT and TLH for long-duration Treasuries, OXY and Ready Capital Corp for energy and financial exposure, WEN for consumer plays, and SOXS for a little semiconductor hedging mischief. Watching their individual movements is enough to satisfy curiosity without turning it into a scoreboard for my self-esteem.
November used to feel like a month of inevitability, when the market shrugged off autumn gloom and hinted at the year-end cheer of a Santa Rally. This year, though, November had other plans. It’s strange how quickly expectations can vanish; one moment, you’re imagining December’s gains, and the next, you’re wondering if folklore matters at all.
Market folklore, after all, has a way of sticking around. There’s a long-held notion that when the market does well for most of the year but slips in November, December often bounces back. It’s a pattern that almost feels magical, though I try not to take it too literally. The past offers hints, not guarantees, and these year-end recoveries seem more like curious tendencies than certainties.
Still, I’m skeptical. I don’t put much stock in month-to-month correlations. November’s behavior could be nothing more than coincidence, a quirk that looks like a pattern only because humans are pattern-seeking creatures. History is full of reminders that markets often ignore the calendar: the January effect, Sell in May, the dot-com bubble, and the 2008 crash all laughed at conventional wisdom. Markets move on policy, earnings, sentiment, and chaos more than on folklore.
Even so, there’s something quietly tantalizing about December. Without checking my totals, I catch myself imagining how a few good weeks could shape my portfolio. A Santa Rally isn’t guaranteed, but it’s a story I can follow with mild curiosity while keeping my hands off the calculator.
So how’s my November? I don’t really know, and I’m fine with that. There’s a certain comfort in observing without obsessing, in seeing the market tell its story without letting it dictate my stress levels. And December? A Santa Rally may come—or it may not. Either way, the story is worth watching.
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