TSMC and Cipher Mining Ignite Massive Bullish Bets, Including a Stunning $18M LEAPS Call

A notable surge in directional positioning emerged in today's options market. AI semiconductor leader $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$   saw heavy institutional buying in mid-term call options, while crypto miner $Cipher Mining Inc.(CIFR)$   attracted a massive long-dated call trade into yesterday's close, sending its V/OI ratio to an extraordinary 769×. Together, these trades indicate that institutional investors are actively adding exposure during short-term volatility and positioning for continued upside in medium- to long-term trend cycles.

TSMC Sees Aggressive Call Buying as the AI Semiconductor Cycle Accelerates

On December 5, TSMC traded around the $299 level, yet its options flow revealed meaningful directional activity. The January 9, 2026, 305-strike call (305C) was swept for 1,000 contracts at a total premium of roughly $1.01 million, effectively building a near-zero-to-full position given the contract's original OI of just 17. The trade executed on the ask side, signaling urgency and clear directional intent.

Fundamentally, this mid-term call positioning aligns closely with where TSMC sits in the current AI hardware cycle. Global foundry demand is entering a new expansion phase led by AI, high-performance computing, and advanced packaging. Industry growth over the next two years remains robust, with TSMC expected to outpace sector averages as advanced-node utilization stays elevated and CoWoS capacity remains tight. Meanwhile, progress at the Arizona fab strengthens the company's role in the reshaped North American supply chain. TSMC continues to maintain a strong technological and yield advantage at advanced nodes, giving it substantial pricing power with AI chip customers.

Overall, visibility on TSMC's medium-term growth remains high. Institutional investors adding directional call exposure near price highs reflects rising confidence in the continuation of the AI-driven uptrend rather than speculation on short-term moves.

Cipher Mining Draws Massive $18M LEAPS Call Bet as Institutions Target the 2025 Crypto Cycle

Cipher Mining delivered an even more striking options signal. Into the December 4 close, the November 20, 2026, 32-strike call (32C) traded in a single block of 30,000 contracts, totaling $18.24 million in premium. With existing OI at only 39 contracts, the trade pushed the V/OI ratio to an extraordinary 769×—a level typically associated with high-conviction, cycle-driven institutional positioning rather than short-term speculation.

Although crypto assets broadly retreated on December 5, with BTC pulling back below USD 90K, JPMorgan's latest research highlights that their volatility-adjusted model still points to a theoretical BTC value near USD 170,000 over the next 6–12 months. At the same time, the exit of higher-cost miners under energy pressure has lowered the estimated industry-wide production cost from USD 94,000 to around USD 90,000. A decline in hashrate and mining difficulty suggests the network is entering a phase similar to the 2018–2020 reset—miner wash-out, cost compression, and the early stages of a renewed upward cycle. JPM also notes that system-wide deleveraging since October is largely complete, reducing downside risk while increasing upward elasticity.

Against this backdrop, Cipher Mining's massive LEAPS call purchase aligns tightly with emerging cycle fundamentals. Institutions are not viewing recent volatility as a threat but as an opportunity to position early for a potential trend-driven upturn in Bitcoin pricing, miner profitability, and the broader hashrate cycle in 2025. In other words, this is not a bet on a short-term bounce—it is a wager on trend-level upside.

Summary

The options positioning in both TSMC and Cipher Mining makes one point clear: institutional investors are not retreating amid short-term volatility—rather, they are scaling into two of the market’s highest-conviction technology themes. For TSMC, call buying reflects strong visibility around AI infrastructure demand and expanding advanced-node and packaging capacity. For Cipher Mining, the massive LEAPS order and extreme V/OI signal a deliberate attempt to capture the next major upswing in the Bitcoin cost cycle and crypto mining profitability.

For investors, the message is equally clear: when institutions increase medium- and long-term exposure during volatility, the focus should shift from short-term noise to structural opportunities. AI semiconductors maintain powerful demand drivers, while crypto mining—despite higher volatility—offers significantly greater payoff potential in the next cycle.

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