$NVDA$
The market has returned to recent highs, making the direction for the next three weeks uncertain again. In assessing market risk ahead of the FOMC, one notable signal is that 14k contracts of the long-dated 170 call $NVDA 20260220 170.0 CALL$ were reduced.
It's uncommon for institutions to reduce long calls, but it doesn't necessarily imply a deep decline. It could also indicate an expectation for extended consolidation, which would erode the option's time value.
Institutions selling calls this week chose the 187.5 strike $NVDA 20251212 187.5 CALL$ , hedging with the 195 call $NVDA 20251212 195.0 CALL$ —similar to last week's strike selection, suggesting limited upside potential. Selling calls on strength remains viable.
The likely trading range this week is still $170–185. However, avoid heavy sizing when selling puts on dips.
$SPY$
A key focus for SPY during the Q4 triple witching is to work off the massive pile of outstanding puts. Therefore, expect SPY to churn between 660 and 680 until next week's monthly expiration.
A sharp pullback on Tuesday is possible, but no need for excessive concern.
$AMD$
Another week of lackluster action expected. Institutions are selling the 227.5 call $AMD 20251212 227.5 CALL$ and buying the 242.5 call $AMD 20251212 242.5 CALL$ for a spread. The short call strike is slightly higher than last week's 222.5.
Expected range: $190–227.5. Put activity is also hedging tail risks.
$INTC$
Maintaining the view of a $38–45 consolidation range.
However, someone opened 10k contracts of the Dec 19th 50 call $INTC 20251219 50.0 CALL$ . Intent is unclear; total premium was relatively low at ~$320k. For other stocks, this might look like retail flow, but with Intel, it's hard to say.
$TSLA$
This week's institutional spread is selling the 470 call $TSLA 20251212 470.0 CALL$ and buying the 490 call $TSLA 20251212 490.0 CALL$ , theoretically capping the week below 490.
Oddly, a floor trade bought the weekly 490 call—meaning uncertain. The lower end of the range this week looks like $400–420.
$META$
Meta's call selling is concentrated above 700, e.g., selling the 720 call $META 20251212 720.0 CALL$ . Surprisingly, the weekly 690 call shows mixed long/short flow.
Puts are mainly clustered at 650–660. Considering the gap down, selling the 640 put $META 20251212 640.0 PUT$ appears safer.
$AAPL$
Apple's expected range this week: $270–292.5. While there's scattered opening of various 300 calls across expiries, reaching 300 this week is highly unlikely.
$ORCL$
Oracle's weekly range: $200–240. There are bullish butterfly structures betting on a spike, e.g., buy 250 call, sell 2x 260 calls, buy 270 call. The advantage is very low cost, but it's a wasted bet if the stock doesn't land in the 250–270 range.
With the stock near lows and limited downside, consider selling the 180 put $ORCL 20251212 180.0 PUT$ .
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