$MU$
Despite Micron's strong earnings and disciplined capital expenditure, the core issue remains: capital still believes AI monetization can't keep up with the burn rate and is beginning to exit revenue-less projects, curbing overheated market sentiment.
The impact of $OWL$ withdrawing support for $ORCL$ project financing is significant. For a $10B project to be abandoned just like that, the investors must have seen something.
Coupled with the fact that $FRMI$ lost a major client last week, causing its stock to halve, even the least sensitive observer should sense that something is amiss.
So, while Micron claims its future performance will continue to be AI-driven, whether that driving force will accelerate expansion or stagnate and contract is anyone's guess.
However, Micron's 2026 capacity is already fully booked, securing future revenue. As a pure revenue-collecting party with scarcity value and a not-excessive valuation, it's one of the companies in the AI sector with the thickest cushion against a downturn. With the entire AI supply chain facing a pullback, $200 is a price level worth watching.
On the block trade front, a relatively rare event occurred: large blocks bought in-the-money calls and profited. The Dec 26th and Jan 16th 200 calls $MU 20251226 200.0 CALL$ $MU 20260116 200.0 CALL$ saw openings of 10,000 and 7,383 contracts respectively on the buy side. The block traders anticipated a post-earnings price around $230–240.
$NVDA$
Institutions rolled their bullish call spread to next week, closing this week's 184-191 call combo and opening a sell 177.5 call $NVDA 20251226 177.5 CALL$ + buy 182.5 call $NVDA 20251226 182.5 CALL$ spread.
This suggests the current price is suitable for selling calls: $NVDA 20251226 185.0 CALL$ .
Huang yesterday issued a statement clarifying that NVIDIA has not made any investment in OpenAI. This kind of forceful denial at this juncture is itself a signal.
The price outlook isn't optimistic. Put openings indicate the stock will visit $160 in the coming weeks. There's activity both betting on and buying the dip at $160. Therefore, if it drops to $160 next week or the week after, consider selling puts to short volatility or buying the dip.
$TSLA$
Bad news: the large bullish call block was closed $TSLA 20260220 600.0 CALL$ . Good news: it seems the block trader was an "informed" retail player, as they opened new positions today: $TSLA 20260220 645.0 CALL$ $TSLA 20260220 650.0 CALL$ $TSLA 20260220 655.0 CALL$ .
Currently, Tesla should stay above $450 near-term, albeit with significant volatility. Use selling puts to follow the uptrend: $TSLA 20251226 450.0 PUT$ .
$SPY$
It appears this rebound will at least retake the area below 690, likely just after Christmas. The Santa Claus rally seems to be on schedule.
$GOOGL$
With Google breaking down, bears added large put blocks targeting $260 and even $210:
$GOOGL 20260123 260.0 PUT$
$GOOGL 20260130 260.0 PUT$
$GOOGL 20260515 210.0 PUT$
If OpenAI were to actually go bankrupt due to funding issues, dragging Google down with it, that could present an excellent buying opportunity, potentially cementing Google as the definitive AI leader.
$BABA$
A bear put spread emerged on Alibaba, betting on a decline below $140 but above $125:
Buy put $BABA 20260320 140.0 PUT$
Sell put $BABA 20260320 125.0 PUT$
$CRWV$
Large long call positions entered with staggering volume: 50,000 contracts of the 100 call $CRWV 20260320 100.0 CALL$ and 10,000 contracts of the 85 call $CRWV 20260130 85.0 CALL$ were bought, totaling ~$22.5 million in premium.
However, given severe debt concerns, recommend cautious observation.
$AMZN$
A large call spread bought, betting on the stock rising to the $260–310 range by next year:
Buy $AMZN 20260821 260.0 CALL$
Sell $AMZN 20260821 310.0 CALL$
$FXI$
Anticipating a pullback in Chinese large-caps, a large block used a "free" short strategy (sell call + buy put):
Sell call 42 $FXI 20260417 42.0 CALL$
Buy put 34 $FXI 20260417 34.0 PUT$
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