Bitcoin RSI Nears 3-year Lows vs. Gold -> Bullish Comeback or End Of Bull Cycle?

As Bitcoin has stayed above 85K over the weekend before Christmas, we also saw Bitcoin RSI nears 3-year lows versus Gold, are these signalling that Bitcoin is going to break the support level against Gold, the last time Bitcoin lost this support level againsts Gold, we saw Bitcoin went into a bear market.

In this article, we would like to use grounded, data-informed assessment to look at Bitcoin’s technical condition vs. gold, support levels, and the broader bull or bear cycle outlook.

Current Technical Signal: RSI vs Gold Approaching Multi-Year Lows

Recent market data show that the BTC/Gold RSI (Relative Strength Index) on weekly charts is near three-year lows, indicating oversold conditions relative to gold. Historically, extended oversold RSI readings can sometimes precede reversals or at least pauses in downtrends — but they are not guarantees by themselves.

Analysts also note:

The BTC/Gold price ratio has dropped sharply in 2025, driven both by gold strength and Bitcoin underperformance, roughly halving from previous cycle levels.

Some traders interpret current lows as a potential mean-reversion setup — i.e., if gold is comparatively overbought or Bitcoin oversold — which could support a rebound in relative performance.

Others caution that the weekly RSI could remain depressed if the market structure continues to weaken.

Conclusion: The RSI signal suggests conditionally favorable oversold territory, which may set up a bullish bounce — but it does not conclusively indicate a resumed uptrend absent broader confirmation.

Is the Bitcoin Bull Cycle Ending or Merely Pulling Back?

This depends on perspective and your definition of a “bull cycle.” Two plausible frameworks exist:

A. Bull Market With Corrective Phase (Neutral–Broader View)

• Bitcoin remains well above major psychological and technical supports (e.g., $80K+ levels).

• Institutional adoption via ETFs and structural participation remains intact, supporting long-term narrative.

• A deep correction within a bull cycle is not historically unusual — i.e., meaningful pullbacks can occur without cycle termination.

Implication: The broader bull market may still be intact if key supports hold and macro conditions stabilize.

B. Bearish Scenario If Structural Support Breaks

• Technical analysts highlight increasing downside pressure with sellers controlling short-term direction and weak structure below major resistance levels.

• Some macro or cross-asset narratives argue that Bitcoin’s relative weakness vs. gold reflects capital rotation toward traditional safe havens amid volatility.

Implication: A decisive breakdown below critical support could transition market structure toward a deeper bearish phase.

Takeaway: At current RSI extremes and price action, both scenarios remain alive. Oversold conditions support a bounce, but trend confirmation is needed.

Could Bitcoin Break Support in the Next Few Weeks?

We think that this is plausible. Key considerations:

Near-term horizontal support around ~$84,000–$85,000 is critical. A clean break below this zone could prompt additional selling pressure and a test of lower support ranges such as ~$80,000 and potentially $74,000+ on a more severe break.

Macroeconomic triggers (e.g., real yields, tightening liquidity) may continue to weigh on risk assets like BTC.

Liquidations and momentum indicators currently point to dominant downside bias until stronger bids emerge.

Probability: A short-term break below support — especially around $85K — is a meaningful risk and would likely increase volatility.

If Bitcoin Loses Support vs Gold — Could We See a Full Bear Market?

If Bitcoin breaks below key support levels in its ratio to gold and stays below:

That would signify relative underperformance and potentially a shift in investor preference toward traditional safe havens (highly evident recently).

A sustained breakdown below RSI and price supports relative to gold could align with a broader bearish phase, similar to past cycles where extended underperformance accompanied lower highs and deeper drawdowns.

However:

• RSI lows alone do not confirm bear markets — they can also form at cycle lows before reversals.

• A bear market would require extended breakdowns in price structure and macro sentiment deterioration.

In summary: Yes, losing key support against gold and in USD terms would raise the probability of a bear market continuation or deep corrective phase — but it would likely manifest through multiple confirmations (price, volume, macro flows), not just a single metric.

Scenario Probabilities (Conditional, Not Predictive)

 This framing emphasizes that confirmation is key — not a single indicator.

Summary Perspective

RSI extremes vs gold and oversold conditions can support a bullish bounce or relief rally, but macro and technical context currently favors continued caution.

A break below key support levels (particularly around $85K in USD terms and support in the BTC/Gold ratio) would meaningfully raise the risk of extended correction or transition into a deeper bear market phase.

A resumed bull cycle would require structural reversal signals, such as reclaiming major trendlines and improving cross-asset flows.

In the next section we would like to share a concise, decision-oriented checklist and chart interpretation framework that we can use over the next several weeks to determine whether Bitcoin is setting up for a bullish resumption, prolonged consolidation, or a transition into a deeper bear phase. This is structured to be practical rather than predictive.

Bitcoin (USD) – Key Price Levels to Monitor

Primary Support (Near-Term Risk Zone)

$84,000–85,000

• Current structural support and psychological pivot.

• Weekly close below this zone materially increases downside risk.

• A clean breakdown with volume would likely trigger a test of lower ranges.

Secondary Support (Bear-Case Confirmation Zone)

$78,000–80,000

• Prior consolidation and volume node.

• Loss of this zone would imply:

• Lower-low formation on daily/weekly charts.

• Transition from bull-cycle correction to bearish trend continuation.

Downside Tail Risk (If Macro Tightens)

$72,000–75,000

• Last major structural support from prior expansion leg.

• Historically, this area would attract long-term buyers, but only after capitulation signals.

Bitcoin (USD) – Bullish Reclaim Levels

To argue for near-term bullish continuation, BTC must reclaim:

$90,000–92,000

• Break above declining short-term trend resistance.

• Must hold for multiple daily closes (not an intraday spike).

$95,000–97,000

• Reclaim of range high and confirmation of higher-high structure.

• Without this level, rallies remain corrective.

Interpretation rule: If BTC rallies but fails below $92K and rolls over → bear-market rally / distribution behavior.

Momentum & Trend Confirmation (USD Chart)

Bullish Confirmation Checklist

• Daily RSI holds above 40 and turns upward.

• Weekly RSI stabilizes and begins to curl higher (even from oversold).

• Price holds above the 50-day moving average after a reclaim.

• Volume expands on up-days, contracts on pullbacks.

Bearish Confirmation Checklist

• Daily RSI breaks below 35 and fails to recover.

• Weekly RSI remains suppressed and trends lower.

• Price rejected at the 50-day MA and rolls over.

• High volume on down-days near support.

Bitcoin vs Gold (BTC/Gold Ratio) – Critical Signal

This is your cycle-health indicator. Currently, the Bitcoin/Gold Ratio as of 18 Dec 2025 stands at 0.0555.

Key Levels to Watch

Current Support Zone (BTC/Gold):

• If the ratio holds and forms a higher low, this supports a relative BTC rebound.

Breakdown Signal:

Weekly close below prior BTC/Gold support + RSI staying <30

Historically associated with:

• Extended Bitcoin underperformance

• Capital rotation into hard assets (gold-led regimes)

Bullish Relative Signal

• BTC/Gold RSI reclaims 35–40

• Ratio breaks above its short-term downtrend

• Suggests Bitcoin regaining risk-asset leadership

Bear-Market Analog Risk

• Sustained breakdown + RSI pinned at lows

• Similar to early stages of prior multi-month Bitcoin bear phases

Macro & Cross-Asset Confirmation Triggers

These often confirm what charts are already signaling:

Supports Bitcoin

• Falling real yields

• Dollar (DXY) rolling over

• Risk assets stabilizing or outperforming defensives

Pressures Bitcoin

• Gold breaking to new highs while BTC stalls

• Rising real yields

• Broad risk-off equity behavior

Near-Term Scenario Matrix (Next 2–6 Weeks)

Bottom Line

$85K is the line that matters most right now.

A bounce without reclaiming $92K–$95K is not a trend reversal.

BTC vs Gold is our early warning system for cycle health.

A full bear market is not confirmed, but the risk increases sharply if both USD price and BTC/Gold supports fail together.

Summary

Based on market analysis from late December 2025, here is a summary of the situation regarding Bitcoin's performance versus Gold:

Bullish Comeback or End of Cycle? Most technical indicators suggest a potential bullish comeback rather than an immediate cycle end. The Bitcoin Relative Strength Index (RSI) against Gold dropping to near 3-year lows (below 30 on the weekly chart) is historically a strong "bottoming" signal. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe notes that similar lows in the past marked the turnaround point where Bitcoin became undervalued relative to an overvalued Gold, often preceding a significant rally.

Could Bitcoin Break Support? Yes, a break is possible. Bitcoin is currently testing the critical 20-ounce gold support level (meaning 1 BTC is worth 20 ounces of gold). While the "bullish divergence" on daily charts suggests a bounce, some analysts warn that consolidation here is fragile. If macroeconomic pressure continues, a breakdown below this 20-ounce level could occur within the coming weeks.

Risk of a Bear Market Repeat? If Bitcoin definitively loses this 20-ounce support level against Gold, analysts warn it could indeed trigger a repeat of the Bitcoin bear market. Historically, the loss of this specific ratio support has marked the official start of previous crypto winters. However, as long as the price holds above ~$85k (and the ratio holds 20oz), the setup favors a recovery.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Bitcoin have a possibility to make a bullish comeback.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.

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