AlanBell
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avatarAlanBell
2023-08-29

Accumulate Taiwan Semiconductor, Especially If Mr. Market Brings It Down

SummaryTSMC's stock price has struggled to recover, but investors should accumulate it due to the semiconductor industry's recovery and TSMC's unique competitive position.The semiconductor industry is seeing the bottom in demand, and TSMC's revenue has been showing signs of improvement.TSMC is the only major fabrication company that does not compete with its own customers, giving it a strong advantage over potential newcomers like Intel.BING-JHEN HONGIntroductionVolatility is arguably inevitable when investing in tech companies. This is especially true for semiconductor players as the industry is heavily reliant on macroeconomic conditions. Perhaps, as a result of this inherent business cycle, TSMC's $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ stock
Accumulate Taiwan Semiconductor, Especially If Mr. Market Brings It Down
avatarAlanBell
2023-08-23

NIO: Downgrading To Sell, Margins To Shift Further Sideways

SummaryWe’re downgrading NIO to a sell as the price war in the EV market escalates.We think it will be difficult for NIO to improve its gross margin while ramping production output in 2H23.Additionally, we think China's weakening domestic macroeconomy will weigh on demand in 2H23 and possibly into 2024.The stock is up 15% since our buy rating in March, outperforming the S&P 500 by 7%.We think the risk-reward for the stock is no longer favorable; thus, we think retail investors should look for other better-positioned names to invest in for 2H23.Chun han/E+ via Getty ImagesWe're downgrading NIO Inc. $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ to a sell; we think it'll now be increasingly difficult for the company to improve gross margins while ramping production output for
NIO: Downgrading To Sell, Margins To Shift Further Sideways
avatarAlanBell
2023-08-22

Nikola: More Pressure Likely After Ugly Convertible Notes Deal - Sell

SummaryCompany issues $125 million in new convertible notes to a division of New York-based hedge fund 3i Management LLC.As debt terms incentivize noteholders to short the company's stock, shares are likely to remain under pressure.Even worse, with a floor price of just $0.38 and another $200 million in convertible notes waiting in the wings, Monday's selloff might have been just the beginning.Given the massive overhang from the new convertible debt and ongoing open market sales, investors should consider selling existing positions and moving on.TraminoNote:I have covered Nikola Corporation $Nikola Corporation(NKLA)$ previously, so investors should view this as an update to my earlier articles on the company.Three weeks ago, recent&
Nikola: More Pressure Likely After Ugly Convertible Notes Deal - Sell
avatarAlanBell
2023-08-21

COINBASE WEEKLY VIEW

H&S pattern detected on M AND W TF. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ On W TF we see a impulse with a corrective phase and a BOS .Waiting for smaller TF to turn bullish for a long!IF PRICE GETS UNDER THE MIN. OF THE RIGHT SHOULDER (45.9$) IT WILL INVALIDATE THE LONG POSITION.
COINBASE WEEKLY VIEW
avatarAlanBell
2023-08-18

Takeaways From Marathon Digital's Q2 Earnings Call

SummaryDespite missing consensus estimates, Marathon's financial performance demonstrated significant growth compared to the previous.Regulatory scrutiny and Bitcoin price volatility remain challenges for Marathon Digital's future profitability.The company's commitment to enhancing hash rate and mining capacity, along with proprietary firmware development, demonstrates a strategy for operational efficiency.luza studiosMarathon Digital Holdings $Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ released its Q2 earnings report on August 8. Despite Bitcoin's (BTC-USD) 78% price gain YTD, the mining company didn't show profitability in its Q2 earnings. Marathon reported a 228.5% YoY increase in revenue, and a Q2 net loss of $21.3 million, resulting in a per-s
Takeaways From Marathon Digital's Q2 Earnings Call
avatarAlanBell
2023-08-11
FTNT $Fortinet(FTNT)$ has grown revenues at a 24% CAGR over the past 5 years and has an average profit margin of 18%. Assuming shares are repurchased uniformly throughout the year, over the last 3 years 91%, 12% and 116% of those profits were used to reduce the diluted share count ~3% per year.If they can grow revenues at 20% over a decade, sustain their 18% profit margin and continue to distribute 70% of it through buybacks, applying a terminal multiple of 20 and discounting at 10% you get today's price of $57.Are all your investments bets on sustained 20% growth in competitive sectors? I am not willing to bet on 20% growth.What if they "only" grow at 15% and "only" 50% of profits can be deployed towards buybacks? Then, all else equal, we are alr
avatarAlanBell
2023-08-10

Upstart: Price Matters

SummaryUpstart Holdings, Inc. reported a turnaround quarter in Q2 '23, with sequential revenue growth and a non-GAAP profit of $5.4 million.The biggest problem facing the AI lending platform is a lack of committed capital to invest in loans during weak economic periods.Upstart stock offers a better opportunity to profit on the next AI rally when bought at a lower P/S multiple.Dzmitry Dzemidovich/iStock via Getty ImagesWhile Upstart Holdings, Inc. $Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$ offers a promising artificial intelligence, or AI, loan origination platform, the business model isn't without flaws. As with other fintech lenders, the biggest issue with the business models are the access to committed capital with peers shifting towards digital b
Upstart: Price Matters
avatarAlanBell
2023-08-09

Why I Am Optimistic about PYPL After The Quarterly Results

SummaryFollowing its earnings release, PayPal stock has fallen dramatically on speculations regarding the near-term future.The market is now pricing-in significant deterioration of the company's top or bottom line which, in my view, is a very low probability scenario.In the meantime, the management is making the right moves to secure long-term competitive advantages while also rewarding shareholders.chameleonseyeBuying a stock when it has fallen in price nearly 80% could be seen as either a risky move of trying to catch a falling knife or a prudent investment decision for anyone looking for attractive future returns at relatively low risk. Which case applies largely depends on the underlying reasons for the large drop in share price and also requires an objective assessment of the bus
Why I Am Optimistic about PYPL After The Quarterly Results
avatarAlanBell
2023-08-08

Unity Stock Forecast

The Unity $Unity Software Inc.(U)$ stock price fell by -0.548% on Monday, 7th Aug 2023 from $40.17 to $39.95. It has now fallen 5 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 3.76% from a day low at $38.79 to a day high of $40.25. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -8.27% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -1 million shares and in total, 9 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $358.69 million.Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 57.11% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $62.77 and $82.
Unity Stock Forecast
avatarAlanBell
2023-08-07

Taiwan Semiconductor Stock Forecast

The Taiwan Semiconductor $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ stock price gained 1.24% on Friday, 4th Aug 2023, rising from $94.98 to $96.16. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.58% from a day low at $95.13 to a day high of $97.58. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -1.12% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -1 million shares and in total, 7 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $656.58 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.The stock lies in the lower part of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a
Taiwan Semiconductor Stock Forecast
avatarAlanBell
2023-08-07

Google: Walking And Chewing Gum At The Same Time. I Explain.

SummaryAll eyes were on AI in Q2, but another initiative is just as critical.Operating margins, which exploded during the stimulated economy, declined throughout 2022.Executives pledged efficiency and investment in the future; let's take a look at what was revealed in Q2.malerapaso/E+ via Getty ImagesIs now a good time to buy stocks?The mood surrounding the stock market underwent a fundamental shift recently. Talk of recessions, inflation, and debt ceilings turned on a dime to artificial intelligence (AI) and dreams of new market highs. Some are now saying we will avoid a recession altogether (although I have my doubts).Companies like NVIDIA $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ are Palantir $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$<
Google: Walking And Chewing Gum At The Same Time. I Explain.
avatarAlanBell
2023-08-04

T2 Biosystems Stock Forecast

The T2 Biosystems $T2 Biosystems(TTOO)$ stock price gained 44.03% on Thursday, 3rd Aug 2023, rising from $0.243 to $0.350. It has now gained 4 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 41.46% from a day low at $0.318 to a day high of $0.450. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 249.65% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 181 million more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 468 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $163.78 million.Due to the high volatility and the trend d
T2 Biosystems Stock Forecast
avatarAlanBell
2023-08-03

Carvana: Debt Restructuring A Cause For Misplaced Turnaround Hopes

SummaryCarvana's reported 2Q23 total GPU and adjusted EBITDA are unsustainable.Despite the debt restructuring's positive headlines, the term details (esp Y2025 notes repurchase agreement) reveal creditors' desire to exit.Creditors are cautious, and equity holders are excited. Whenever they take different views, I am inclined to take my cue from creditors. This case is no different.Joe RaedleBackgroundAfter its 2Q23 earning release and debt restructuring announcement on July 19, Carvana $Carvana Co.(CVNA)$'s stock skyrocketed 50%+ and closed above $55/share. Its 8x YTD stock performance left its peers AutoNation $AutoNation(AN)$ and CarMa $CarMax(KMX)$ in the dust.Da
Carvana: Debt Restructuring A Cause For Misplaced Turnaround Hopes
avatarAlanBell
2023-07-27

Teladoc Health: Promising Signs

SummaryTeladoc Health, Inc. reported Q2 2023 results with a double beat.The telehealth provider hinted at an easier market opportunity with reduced competition and a desire for healthcare providers to consolidate the market leader.The stock is still cheap at ~13x forward adjusted EBITDA targets.Moyo StudioTeladoc Health, Inc. $Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$ has faced a difficult year, but the telemedicine provider is starting to show promising signs of a return to sustainable growth. The company faced intense competitive pressure due to Covid excitement for virtual care while demand plunged once doctor offices reopened. My investment thesis is ultra Bullish on the stock, even though the stock is already up sharply after the quarter
Teladoc Health: Promising Signs
avatarAlanBell
2023-07-26

PayPal And FedNow: Why The Fears Are Overblown

SummaryPayPal continues to trade as one of the most undervalued tech stocks today.FedNow would allow for instantaneous cash transfers for consumers, but should not impact PayPal's core payment processing business.PayPal's proposed sale of BNPL assets may help accelerate its already robust share repurchase program.I reiterate my strong buy rating for the stock.Derek WhitePayPal $PayPal(PYPL)$ is one of the few tech stocks still trading at deep value valuations. The tough macro environment has pressured top-line growth, though the company is making great progress on boosting profit margins. Some investors may be worried that the release of the Federal Reserve's FedNow payment system may pose an existential threat to PYPL due to it being left out fro
PayPal And FedNow: Why The Fears Are Overblown
avatarAlanBell
2023-07-25

$CVNA A Pure Short Squeeze Play

Arguably the best performing stock in 2023, Carvana Co. $Carvana Co.(CVNA)$ remains on a steady upward trajectory following its impressive Q2 performance. With the company smashing analyst expectations for Q2 revenue and EPS, the company shared more positive news regarding its debt. As is, the company reached an agreement with its noteholders to eliminate a substantial amount of its 2025 and 2027 unsecured note maturities and lower its interest expense over the next 2 years. In this way, the company’s profitability prospects improved significantly which could make CVNA stock poised to continue its impressive run since the beginning of the year thanks to its improved outlook.CVNA FundamentalsNew HopeAlthough CVNA surprised investors with much bette
$CVNA A Pure Short Squeeze Play
avatarAlanBell
2023-07-24

Plug Power: Ambitious Long-Term Goals Look More Attainable As Hydrogen Demand Accelerates

SummaryPlug Power made a slew of announcements about its agreement with Avina Clean Hydrogen, its 2030 ambitions and its new Europe pedestal customer, Blue EnerFreeze.The company reiterated its near-term, medium-term and long-term financial targets, with steps as to how they will be achieved.Management shared its KPIs for 2023, boosting transparency and accountability, and they remain on track to achieving them all by the end of 2023.Given its 2030 ambitions, Plug Power is looking to replicate its green hydrogen plant model across the US and Europe.Stationary power business momentum is growing for Plug Power, and at the same time, significant progress has been made on the manufacturing front.Vanit JanthraPlug Power $Plug Power(PLUG)$ had its Analy
Plug Power: Ambitious Long-Term Goals Look More Attainable As Hydrogen Demand Accelerates
avatarAlanBell
2023-07-21

It Is Too Early To Be Pessimistic On Intel

SummaryIntel's bold turnaround plan, which includes the release of Intel 4 fabrication through a Meteor Lake CPU in 2023H2, could bring the company back into the semiconductor game.The potential of Intel's plan is monumental, with the company not only mining for gold but also selling shovels needed for mining, indicating a huge opportunity in the fast-growing semiconductor foundry market.Despite risks associated with investing in Intel, geopolitical advancements and support from the US and EU for semiconductor fabrication on their borders could significantly benefit Intel, the only Western company capable of competing in advanced semiconductor fabrication.Leon NealIntel $Intel(INTC)$ is building a factory to produce a shovel. A shovel will inevita
It Is Too Early To Be Pessimistic On Intel
avatarAlanBell
2023-07-20
No changes to the price of Grab Holdings Limited $Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ stock on Wednesday, 19th Jul 2023. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 5.08% from a day low at $3.45 to a day high of $3.62. The price has risen in 4 of the last 10 days and is up by 2.33% over the past 2 weeks.The stock lies in the middle of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 22.71% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $3.94 and $4.60 at the end of this 3-month period.GRAB Signals & ForecastThe Grab Holdings Limited stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, ho
avatarAlanBell
2023-07-18

Alibaba: Emerging As A Strong Buy Now

SummaryAlibaba's share price has seen a significant uptick, indicating renewed investor confidence following a potential easing of governmental clampdown on the tech sector in China.Despite pressures, Alibaba has demonstrated resilience and is currently undergoing a process of bottom formation, presenting I think a significant buying opportunity.I expect the company's stock price to rise further if the monthly closing price surpasses $121, making a long-term investment entry at the current level an appealing prospect with low risk.maybefalseAlibaba Group Holding Limited $Alibaba(BABA)$, a titan in the global e-commerce and cloud platform arena, has seen a notable uptick in its share price, indicative of a revival in investor confidence. This resur
Alibaba: Emerging As A Strong Buy Now

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