Nvidia Hits Historic Lows vs. the SOX, Entering a Sweet Spot Ahead of Upcoming Catalysts

After a strong run into July, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  's shares have traded in a relatively tight range. Even with a roughly 30% year-to-date gain, NVDA has meaningfully lagged the broader semiconductor sector on a relative basis, while its valuation multiple has continued to compress (around 24x foward P/E) over the past period.

Moreover, a recent Bernstein report noted that NVDA sits around the 11th percentile of its own 10-year forward P/E range and in the first percentile versus the SOX, implying an unusually large relative valuation reset.

The note also cites a striking historical statistic: over the last decade, buying NVDA below ~25x was associated with average 1-year returns above 150%, with no negative drawdown in the holding period in that sample.

It's not a law of nature, but it's a practical reminder that “valuation compression” often coincides with sentiment that is already washed out.

Fundamentals: demand still looks strong, but the market is policing Capex durability

Public filings reinforce that the business momentum remains intense. NVIDIA reported data center revenue of $51.2 billion in fiscal FY2026 Q3 (up 66% YoY) and guided fiscal 2026 Q4 revenue to $65.0 billion ±2%. That matters because it puts “AI spending anxiety” next to “shipping reality” in the same frame.

The sell-side note acknowledges investor angst around capex sustainability and the GPU-versus-TPU/ASIC narrative, but argues capex intentions “look fine” for now and the GPU storyline may be regaining traction.

For investors, the key isn't whether AI continues, but whether (1) CUDA-centric deployment remains the default for both training and inference, (2) Blackwell ramps smoothly on supply, yields, and platform integration, and (3) inference growth translates into system-level pricing power and resilient margin structure.

Catalysts: near-term timing is visible, and so is the direction

The Bernstein note points to a busy catalyst calendar tied to roadmap milestones, flagging Rubin, CES, and GTC as potential sentiment inflection points, and arguing consensus numbers may be low relative to the company's Blackwell/Rubin guidance (>$500 billion).

GTC 2026 is already scheduled for March 16–19, 2026, with Jensen Huang's keynote on March 16—historically one of the highest-information events on NVIDIA's calendar. CES tends to be a smaller-moving catalyst for the stock; CES 2026 runs January 5–9, 2026, and Jensen Huang may deliver a keynote on January 5.

OpenAI's latest fundraising and valuation signals also serve as an additional catalyst for NVDA: more capital and a higher valuation for OpenAI typically translate into a steeper compute buildout curve, with NVIDIA the most direct beneficiary on the hardware supply side.

Risks: the threat is rarely "tech," it's expectations and policy

Downside risks cited include near-term lumpiness, slower growth in key markets, competitive pressure, customer migration to in-house silicon, and export regulation.

Bottom line: NVDA's appeal here is not absolute cheapness, but a setup where robust fundamentals coexist with an unusually reset relative valuation—and a dense near-term catalyst window that can reprice expectations quickly.

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