🛑 The "Perfect Trade" is a Myth: Why Being Right Once Isn't Enough

Remember early 2020?

It was a masterclass in market psychology. In February and March, the world seemed to be ending. Stocks plummeted. Panic was everywhere. Yet, by June 8, 2020, the Total US Stock Market (VTI) hadn't just recovered—it was positive by 0.77%.

If you blinked, you missed the recovery. And that exposes the most dangerous trap in investing.

📺 The Media’s Survivor Bias

During that volatility, headlines loved to celebrate two types of "geniuses":

 * The Prophets: Those who sold everything in Jan 2020.

 * The Snipers: Those who bought the absolute bottom in March.

It makes for a great story. It makes us feel like that is what investing is supposed to be: dodging bullets and timing tops and bottoms.

But here is the silent killer they don't talk about:

⚖️ The "Two-Decision" Trap

Market timing is not about being right once. You have to be right TWICE.

If you sold in January 2020 to avoid the crash, congratulations. But did you have the guts to buy back in March when the news was still terrible?

 * If you hesitated, waiting for "clarity," you missed the massive V-shape rally.

 * By June, you were likely still sitting on cash, watching the train leave the station.

The math is brutal: In a 40-year investing journey, you will face roughly 160 quarters.

A single "lucky quarter" (where you dodged a crash) represents just 0.6% of your investing life.

Do you honestly believe you can successfully time your entry and exit points for the other 159 quarters? The probability approaches zero.

🛡️ The Real "Holy Grail": Asset Allocation

Stop trying to predict the storm. Build a house that can withstand it.

An investor with a solid Asset Allocation strategy didn't need to be a fortune teller in 2020.

 * They didn't sell at the bottom because their portfolio was designed for risk.

 * They captured the full recovery because they never left the market.

The Insight:

Chasing short-term "perfect timing" usually leads to long-term underperformance. You might feel smart avoiding a 20% drop, but if you miss the subsequent 30% rally, you’ve actually lost money.

Don't let the pursuit of a "perfect" quarter destroy a lifetime of compounding.

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