Tiger Research team maintains a BUY rating on $JD.com(JD)$ but lowers the price target to US$35 (from US$40), as macro data point to near-term pressure on consumption—particularly in the home appliance category.
Recent NBS data indicate a clear slowdown in retail momentum. Total retail sales growth decelerated to 2.9% YoY in October and 1.3% in November, down meaningfully from 3.0% and 3.4% in September and August. The pressure was most pronounced in household appliances, a key revenue and profit contributor for JD, with sales declining 14.6% YoY in October and 19.4% in November, versus +3.3% YoY in September. The weakness largely reflects a high base effect following the rollout of China’s national subsidy program in 4Q24.
Against this backdrop, Tiger Research team now expects electronics and home appliance revenue to decline 19% YoY in 4Q, a sharp revision from the prior forecast of a 3% decline. This translates into 11% lower net product sales revenue and 9% lower total revenue relative to previous estimates. As a result, overall 4Q revenue is now modeled to be flat YoY, compared with the earlier expectation of 7% growth.
Despite the soft outlook for 4Q, the team expects these headwinds to be temporary. High base effects should continue to fade into 2026, as appliance demand already showed signs of normalization during 1H25. Within new businesses, food delivery losses are expected to narrow sequentially in 4Q, though this improvement is likely to be partially offset by higher losses from Jingxi and international expansion. General merchandise remains the brightest spot, with Tiger Research team forecasting 16% YoY growth in the segment, supported by sustained consumer demand and platform strength.
Overall, while 4Q results are likely to remain under pressure, Tiger Research team remains constructive on JD’s medium- to long-term trajectory. JD’s scale advantages, improving profitability in its core retail business, and longer-term optionality from new initiatives continue to underpin confidence beyond the current consumption slowdown.
Estimate revisions: Tiger Research team lowers the 4Q revenue estimate by 9%, but raises non-GAAP net income by RMB 562 million, reflecting a 16bps improvement in margin.
For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.
🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greater Flexibility Now
Find out more here.
Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SGD1000* to get SGD 688 stock vouchers*! The trade can be executed using any payment type available under the Cash Boost Account: Cash, CPF, SRS, or CDP.
Other helpful links:
💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉
How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.
Comments