For Q4 2024, 75% of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ companies beat EPS estimates and 63% exceeded revenue expectations.97% of the S&P 500 companies have reported results, with earnings exceeding expectations by 7.5%, although this is below the 5-year average of 8.5%.The blended earnings growth rate for Q4 2024 is 18.2%, marking the highest year-over-year earnings growth rate since Q4 2021.Overall, the blended revenue growth rate for Q4 is 5.3%, with sectors like Financials and Health Care contributing positively to this growth. Industrials had the largest revenue decline at -2.7%.Positive surprises were particularly noticeable in Financials (+12.6%), Information Technology (+7.5%), and Consumer Discretionary (+13.2%).The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the
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PDD:Near-Term Uncertainty; Downgrading to HOLD
( $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ , HOLD) - Slowing Growth and Rising Investments Create Near-Term Uncertainty; Downgrading to HOLD We are downgrading PDD to HOLD but maintaining our price target of $130 (unchanged) following below-consensus 4Q revenue and profit performance. 4Q revenue grew 24% y/y, decelerating from 44% in 3Q, and was 2%/3% below Tiger/Street.Revenue missed. By segment, online marketing services revenue increased 17% y/y, compared to 24% in 3Q, marking a slowdown relative to domestic peers. This segment came in 1% above Tiger/Street. Transaction services revenue grew 33% year-over-year, a sharp deceleration from 72% in the previous quarter, and was 5% below Tiger and 7% below the Street, likely due to tougher comp for Temu and slowi
Tencent Holdings：Maintain BUY and Increase PT to HK$590
$TENCENT(00700)$ -HK, BUY) - Solid 4Q Results Driven by Robust Games and Ads; Momentum Set to Continue in 2025; Maintain BUY and Increase PT to HK$590We maintain our BUY rating and increase our price target to HK$590 (previously HK$450) after Tencent reported largely in-line 4Q24 results, with revenue and profitability slightly ahead consensus. Total revenue grew 11% y/y to RMB172.4B, exceeding consensus by 3%, primarily driven by stronger-than-expected VAS and ad segments.Domestic game revenue accelerated to +23% y/y in 4Q24 (vs. +14% y/y in 3Q24), driven by robust performance from key evergreen titles including Honour of Kings, Peacekeeper Elite, and VALORANT, along with solid contributions from new launches like DnF Mobile and Delta Force. Int
Tencent Holdings：Maintain BUY and Increase PT to HK$590
FOMC Meets Expectations, Risk Event Priced In, Driving Market Rally
Wednesday's FOMC meeting largely aligned with our expectations from yesterday. Wednesday Focus: FOMC Would be Neutral But Equity Remain ExpensiveThe dot plot essentially built upon the December projections while incorporating recent macroeconomic trends, and Powell’s key message was to "continue monitoring policy developments." With this risk event now settled, the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ retreated to 20, helping to lift the market.Let’s see the Wallstreet’s views on Fed’s Dovish Message first:$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ : Rate unchanged, future moves depend on next three months.$Goldman Sachs(GS)$
FOMC Meets Expectations, Risk Event Priced In, Driving Market Rally
Wednesday Focus: FOMC Would be Neutral But Equity Remain Expensive
1. Market Commentary on Wednesday’s FOMCAfter two consecutive days of rebound, the market resumed its decline today. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained a total of 2.78% over Friday and Monday, slightly above the historical average rebound of +2.45% following a 10% correction, making it a relatively normal occurrence (see last Thursday Commentary).The most important macro event this week is Wendesday’s FOMC meeting. Based on interest rate futures pricing, the probability of a rate cut tomorrow is only 1%. We believe this pricing is reasonable—economic weakness is not yet evident enough, and uncertainty surrounding the inflationary impact of tariff policies gives the Fed no reason to cut rates at this moment. Therefore, the market's focus will be on the
Wednesday Focus: FOMC Would be Neutral But Equity Remain Expensive
US Tiger Research: LI: Maintain BUY and $30 PT
$Li Auto(LI)$ (LI, BUY) - Mixed 4Q; Cautious 1Q/2025 Outlook Amid Pricing Pressure; Maintain BUY and $30 PTWe maintain our BUY rating and $30 price target following Li Auto's mixed 4Q24 results, which beat Tiger and consensus on profitability, but cautious 1Q25 outlook reflects ongoing ASP pressure and shifting product mix.4Q revenue 2%/1% below Tiger/Street. Li Auto delivered 158,696 vehicles (+20% y/y, +4% q/q), 3% below Tiger, 2% below consensus, but still within guidance range (160,000-170,000 units). ASP of RMB 269K was 1% above Tiger and consensus, showing resilience despite competitive pressure. Total revenue of RMB 44.3B, 2% below Tiger and 1% below consensus, driven by slight delivery shortfall. Vehicle sales of RMB 42.6B, 2% below Tiger, 1
US Tiger Research: LI: Maintain BUY and $30 PT
US Stocks: Short-Term Buying Opportunity, but Medium-Term Outlook Remains Concerning
By Bo Pei，US Tiger ResearchI didn’t write my Market Commentary for the first three days of this week—partly because I felt the timing wasn’t right yet (the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ hadn’t dropped 10%) and partly because I was taking time to think and analyze how this market downturn might play out.To get straight to the point: in the short term, I believe this could be a good opportunity to buy the dip in U.S. equities, as the market is likely to see a rebound. However, the medium-term outlook (over the next few months) remains concerning.Short-Term OutlookHere’s why I think a short-term rebound is likely. First, let’s look at historical probabilities.The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has now declined 10% from its recen
US Stocks: Short-Term Buying Opportunity, but Medium-Term Outlook Remains Concerning
US Tiger Research: JD, Maintain BUY and Raise PT to $50
$JD.com(JD)$ (JD, BUY) - Beat-and-Raise Quarter Fueled by Trade-Ins and Demand Recovery; Strong Momentum Expected to Continue in 1H; Maintain BUY and Raise PT to $50 We are maintaining our BUY rating and increasing PT to $50 (was $45) after JD reported beat-across-the-board 4Q results, and as we believe the strong momentum will likely sustain in the 1H. JD total revenue grew 13% y/y in 4Q (accelerating 8pts from 3Q), with JDR revenue up 15% y/y (vs. +6% y/y in 3Q). Moreover, 4Q gross profit grew 22% y/y, accelerating 6pts from 3Q, and was 9pts faster than revenue growth, with gross margin up 110bps y/y (vs. +165bps in 3Q), again, due to supply chain efficiency improvement and revenue mix shift to higher margin business lines. 3P growth continu
US Tiger Research: JD, Maintain BUY and Raise PT to $50
FactSet Insights: How Do Most S&P Companies Perform in This Earnings Season?
FactSet Insights: How Do Most S&P Companies Perform in This Earnings Season?
Tiger US Research：DeepSeek/Semi, NVDA, Chinese Equities, Crypto Reserve
I was on vacation last week, so here’s a brief analysis of key events and their impact on capital markets.Last week, the market continued its downward trend, with a sharp rebound late on Friday likely driven by month-end fund rebalancing and a gamma squeeze triggered by the expiration of a large volume of options and the rebalancing. This does not indicate a shift in market sentiment. Therefore, today's decline should not be too surprising. However, note that the S&P 500 is only down about 4% from its peak. The reason why investor sentiment feels particularly bearish is that previously popular stocks, such as $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , and some speculative small caps, have experienced sig
Tiger US Research：DeepSeek/Semi, NVDA, Chinese Equities, Crypto Reserve
US Tiger Research: BILI: Maintain BUY and $25 PT
$Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$ (BILI, BUY) - Solid 4Q Driven by Gaming and Advertising; Strong Momentum Likely to Continue in 2025; Maintain BUY and $25 PT We are maintaining our BUY rating and $25 PT after BILI reported above-consensus 4Q revenue and profits. 4Q DAU grew 3% y/y to 103M (vs. +4% in 3Q). MAU grew 1% y/y to 340M (vs. +2% in 1Q), with the DAU/MAU ratio largely stable at 30%. Engagement metrics remained healthy: average daily time was 99 minutes in 4Q, +4% y/y; average total daily video views grew 12% to 4.8B (vs. +23% in 3Q); average monthly interactions increased 3% y/y to 15.5B.Driven by the continued success of San Guo, Mobile Game revenue grew 79% y/y in 4Q (vs. +84% in 3Q). BILI believes San Guo will have a long lifecycle of over f
US Tiger Research: BILI: Maintain BUY and $25 PT
US Tiger Research: BABA, Maintain BUY and Increase PT to $145
$Alibaba(BABA)$ . (BABA, BUY) - 3Q Beat Driven by E-commerce and Cloud; Rising Capex to Seize Growth Opportunities; Maintain BUY and Increase PT to $145 We are maintaining our BUY rating and increasing PT to $145 (was $115) after BABA reported strong F3Q results with both revenue and profits above expectations. The company has completed major offline asset divestments to focus on e-commerce and AI + Cloud.Total revenue grew 8% y/y (accelerated 3pts from last quarter) and adjusted EBITA grew 4% for the first time since F3Q24. TTG CMR grew 9% (accelerated 7pt), with both take rate and GMV up y/y with larger contribution from take rate expansion. Take rate expansion was mainly driven by the 0.6% software service fee and increased penetration of
US Tiger Research: BABA, Maintain BUY and Increase PT to $145
US Tiger Research: IQ, Maintain HOLD and $2.5 PT
iQIYI, Inc. (IQ, HOLD) - 4Q In Line; 2025 Growth Outlook Uncertain; Full report download: Click here to view or download the PDF fileWe are maintaining our HOLD rating and $2.5 PT after IQ reported largely in-line but declined revenue and profits. By segment, membership revenue declined 15% y/y (vs. -13% in 3Q), likely due to lower subscribers (IQ does not disclose sub count anymore) due to a lighter content slate. 4Q advertising revenue declined 13% y/y (vs. -20% in 3Q). Due to declined revenue, 4Q's non-GAAP operating margin also declined to 6%, from 12% a year ago. 4Q's operating
US Tiger Research: IQ, Maintain HOLD and $2.5 PT
US Tiger Research: BIDU, Maintain BUY but Decrease PT to $118
$Baidu(BIDU)$ - 4Q Mixed; Growth and Margins to Gradually Improve in 2025; —Tigertrade ResearchFull report: Click here to view or download the PDF fileWeekly chart We are maintaining our BUY rating but decreasing PT to $118 (was $120) after $Baidu(BIDU)$ reported mixed 4Q results with revenue above but profits below consensus.Baidu Core ad revenue declined 7% y/y, vs. -5% in 3Q, as macro remained weak and more search results are now AI generated, which is not monetized. Specifically, 22% of search result pages now contain generated content, up from last reported 20%. Mgmt. believes AI transformati
US Tiger Research: BIDU, Maintain BUY but Decrease PT to $118
Factset Insights: S&P 500 Q4 Earnings Beat Led by Tech and Financials
In this earnings season, most $.SPX(.SPX)$ companies exceeded EPS expectations, although the overall magnitude of the surprises was lower than historical levels.Nevertheless, the strong performance of leading sectors drove both earnings and revenues higher, and the market remains cautiously optimistic about growth in the coming quarters.How do S&P companies perform in this earnings season?77% of companies delivered positive EPS surprises, with an average EPS surprise of +5.0%—well below the 5-year average of +8.5%.On the revenue side, 63% of companies beat expectations, but the average revenue surprise was only +0.9%. The blended earnings growth rate reached 13.2%, the highest level since Q4 2021, while the revenue growth rate stood at 5.0%.Ho
Factset Insights: S&P 500 Q4 Earnings Beat Led by Tech and Financials
Trump’s 2025 tariff plans rewrite global trade: benefits and impacts
Trump’s 2025 tariff plans could rewrite the rules of global trade And your wallet might feel it first. A 60% tariff on China, 25% on Mexico and Canada, and a 20% global import tax are all on the table. Here are the potential benefits and impacts:ImageTariffs are taxes on imported goods, making them more expensive. Trump’s proposed tariffs for 2025 could spark trade wars, disrupt supply chains, and impact consumer prices. These measures are intended to enhance U.S. manufacturing; however, they may involve significant trade-offs. Potential Wins for the U.S. Boosting Domestic Industry: Higher import costs could push consumers toward U.S.-made goods, benefiting local businesses and workers. Negotiating Leverage: Tariffs can pressure trade partners into better deals on currency policies, energy
Trump’s 2025 tariff plans rewrite global trade: benefits and impacts
1. How did the U.S. stock market perform during Trump's first term (2017-2021)?2. How does the stock market generally fluctuate on the first trading day after a Republican president's inauguration?3. How will the policy directions mentioned in the January 20th inauguration speech affect US stock market sectors and companies?4. How might Trump's presidency impact global asset classes? Read the article to get all the answer.
@MillionaireTiger:💰Trump Takes Office: 100-Day Plan & 4 Key Concerns for US Stock Traders
California Wildfires: 😢Affected or Benefiting Industries & Stocks
On January 7, 2025, a wildfire broke out in the Los Angeles area of California, US, and it is still ongoing. As of January 15, the fire has burned an area of over 164.3 square kilometers.More than 90,000 people in Los Angeles have been evacuated. Some institutions have raised their loss estimates for the Los Angeles fire to between $135 billion and $150 billion.Abiel Reinhart, an economist at JPMorgan Chase, believes that the economic losses from this wildfire are estimated to be around $250 billion, surpassing the losses caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005.Tens of thousands of residents have been displaced and are in need of food, shelter, emergency medical supplies, mental health counseling, and even the purchase of new homes. Many businesses have also suffered severe damage to their ope
California Wildfires: 😢Affected or Benefiting Industries & Stocks
Bank of America (BofA) analysts last week raised their price target on $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ to $490 from $400, Morgan Stanley Eyes Tesla $800 on Bull Case, Citing Autonomous Driving and Embodied AI, What’s your target price? Did you add $TESLA?
@钛媒体APP:Morgan Stanley Eyes Tesla $800 on Bull Case, Citing Autonomous Driving and Embodied AI
Thank you for your contribution. And could you list more about ETFs that fit the industries you mentioned? Then the article can be seen under more stocks. Thank you very much!
@Mickey082024:Why 5% Matters for the 10-Year Treasury! Which Industry Will Impact The Most!
JPMorgan's CPI Analysis and PredictionsJPMorgan forecasts that the December core CPI will likely show a month-over-month increase of 0.17%-0.23%, which would support a 0.3%-1% rise in the $.SPX(.SPX)$ index. They note the following scenarios: Core CPI > 0.3% MoM: S&P 500 may drop up to 2% (5% likelihood). Core CPI < 0.1% MoM: S&P 500 could surge by 1.8%-2.5%.
@OptionsAura:December CPI Comes: Options to Trade a Volatility Short Strategy?
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