$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ Is Up 2300%… And That’s Exactly Why I’m Not Buying Here
Everyone loves PLTR
It’s up over 2,300% since my Monthly BX system flipped it into a bull cycle back in February 2023.
Every dip has felt like “the last chance.” Most people on the timeline want to buy more here.
I don’t.
Not because I hate PLTR. Not because I think the company is done.
But because I care more about cycles and risk/reward than narratives.
Let me walk you through how I’m thinking about it.
1. PLTR’s Bull Cycle Is Old, Not New
In my system, Monthly BX is the macro filter:
Dark red → no interest
Increasing / green → macro bull cycle, allowed to be long
PLTR triggered a bull cycle signal in Feb 2023. Since then it’s run over 2,300%.
That matters.
Across a wide range of stocks I track, the average bull cycle lasts 12–24 months.
PLTR is now way out toward the late end of that distribution.
You don’t need to be a quant to understand this: The stuff that’s already up 20x after a 2‑year run is not where the best risk/reward usually lives.
2. Past Dips Were Great. This One Is Different.
Every meaningful pullback earlier in the cycle:
Happened while Monthly BX was still strengthening
Often came back into some form of weekly discount zone (1W FVB / SMZ)
Offered you an asymmetric bet: small downside, huge upside left in the cycle
That’s why “buy the dip on PLTR” worked so well from 2023 into 2024.
Now?
You’re no longer buying:
“Early in a new bull cycle, plenty of juice left.”
You’re buying:
“Name that has already done 20x, in the 9th inning of its average cycle length.”
Very different bet.
3. Risk vs Reward Is Skewed The Wrong Way Up Here
At this stage:
Upside: sure, PLTR can still go higher. Late‑cycle blowoffs are real. You might squeeze another 50–100% if the stars align.
Downside: you’re sitting on top of a massive, extended move. A routine 30–50% correction would not be surprising at all.
That’s not the profile I want for new money.
If you’ve ridden a huge part of this move from early in the cycle, holding or trimming is a different conversation.
But starting fresh entries up here?
For me, the risk/reward is no longer ideal.
4. My Actual Stance On PLTR Right Now
So where does that leave me?
I’m not opening new positions in PLTR up here.
If I were long from much lower, I’d be in manage / trim / trail mode, not “back up the truck” mode.
I still think PLTR can be a long‑term winner, but this specific bull run is statistically late.
I want to be deploying fresh capital into:
Names where Monthly BX has just flipped
Price is in clear discount zones
The bull cycle is in early or mid innings, not the 9th
That’s where you get PLTR‑type moves before they happen, not after.
5. The Takeaway You Should Steal
The lesson here has nothing to do with PLTR specifically.
It’s this:
Respect where you are in the cycle
Respect risk vs reward, not just stories and FOMO
Accept that you don’t have to own every last leg of every move
PLTR was an incredible opportunity when BX first flipped and price was cheap.
Right now, it’s a great case study in why late‑cycle chasing is very different from early‑cycle conviction.
I don’t need to be the guy who bought PLTR at the top.
I’d rather be the guy quietly buying the next PLTR early in its Monthly BX bull cycle while everyone’s still arguing over the last one.
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