$Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ Is the ~40% drop in Novo Nordisk ($NVO) justified? š
The data confirms a massive "Structural Deceleration."
The timeline from GLP-1 euphoria to a "Kitchen Sink" reality check is brutal:
š Phase 1 (2023): "Priced for Perfection" with +36% sales growth.
š© Phase 2 (2024): The "Bull Trap." Sales slow to 26% while impairments (ocedurenone) signal R&D risks.
ā ļø Phase 3 (Early 2025): The "Compounding Cliff." Consecutive guidance cuts start.
šļø Phase 4 (Late 2025): The "Reset." 9,000 layoffs and DKK 60B CAPEX collide with single-digit growth.
The high-growth monopoly thesis is broken.
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šØ 6 Jan UPDATE: The $NVO Bear Case just broke.
The Jan 5th launch of Oral Wegovy at $149/mo forces an immediate pivot. The "Compounding Cliff" is dead. š
The new reality:
1.Compounding Killer: At $149, NVO undercuts the grey market. Safety + Price = No brainer.
2. Volume Play: They are trading high margins for massive volume (100M+ TAM). Available NOW at 70k+ pharmacies.
Risk shifts from lost share to margin dilution, but the "Avoid" rating is rescinded. If volume explodes in Q1, the bottom is in. Scorecard attached š