Huat99
Huat99
www.youtube.com/@13weeks19
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avatarHuat99
01-13 20:49
$ResMed(RMD)$ 😴 ResMed (RMD) — Inflection Hunter Snapshot The market still fears GLP-1 drugs will kill sleep apnea demand. The numbers say otherwise. ResMed is showing a **confirmed positive inflection**, driven by margin expansion and earnings leverage — not hype. 📈 Inflection status: CONFIRMED POSITIVE Margins and earnings are accelerating faster than revenue. Atomic evidence: • Revenue +9% YoY to $1.34B (Q1 FY26) • Net income +12% YoY to $348.5M → clear operating leverage • Gross margin expanded to 59.4% (+80bps YoY) • Core Sleep & Breathing revenue +10% YoY ($1.17B) • Dividend raised 13% YoY to $0.60 This directly contradicts the “terminal decline from GLP-1” narrative. 💰 Balance sheet strength: • Cash $1.38B vs debt $668M →
avatarHuat99
01-13 15:40
$Astera Labs, Inc.(ALAB)$ 🧩 Astera Labs (ALAB) — Inflection Analysis This is the moment many IPOs fail to reach. Astera Labs has crossed from “AI promise” into **real, GAAP-profitable execution** — and the inflection is now confirmed. ALAB sits at the center of hyperscaler AI clusters, supplying the **connectivity backbone** (retimers, switches, modules) that makes large-scale AI compute actually work. 📈 Inflection status: CONFIRMED POSITIVE Profitability, cash flow, and scale efficiency have all flipped. Atomic evidence: • Q3’25 revenue $230.6M, +104% YoY • GAAP net income $91.1M vs loss last year • Diluted EPS $0.50 vs $(0.05) • YTD operating cash flow $224M • Gross margin ~76% while scaling hardware • R&D intensity fell to 34%
avatarHuat99
01-13 15:19
$DexCom(DXCM)$ 🩺 DexCom (DXCM) — Inflection Analysis DexCom is emerging from its 2024 slowdown — and the growth engine is re-accelerating. After a digestion year marked by channel resets and litigation overhang, DexCom is now benefiting from faster product cycles and an expanded addressable market beyond insulin users. 📈 Inflection status: CONFIRMED POSITIVE Direction: Improving (confidence: medium–high) Atomic evidence: • Revenue re-accelerated to +21% YoY (Q3’25) vs +11% FY’24 • Stelo (OTC, non-insulin) launched Aug’24 → major TAM expansion • G7 15-day clearance (Apr’25) restores product parity • Gross margin stabilized and expanded in Q3’25 on volume leverage • 500k–600k net users added in FY’24 (pre-Stelo) This is no longer just a
avatarHuat99
01-12 22:52
$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ 🧬 Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) — Inflection Analysis HIMS has already crossed the hardest line: profitability. But the next phase depends on how well it replaces GLP-1 tailwinds. After years as a growth-first DTC telehealth platform, HIMS delivered its first full year of net income in FY2024 — confirming a real business inflection. 📈 Inflection status: CONFIRMED POSITIVE (stabilizing) Revenue, margins, and cash flow have all turned sustainable. Atomic evidence: • FY2024 net income $126M vs -$23.5M in FY2023 • Q3’25 revenue $589M, +50% YoY • Monthly revenue per subscriber $80 vs $55 last year • Subscribers 2.47M, +21% YoY • Marketing spend down to ~40% of revenue (operating leverage) This is no l
avatarHuat99
01-11

📺 Fox Corporation (FOX / FOXA) — Inflection Analysis

$Fox Corporation Class A(FOXA)$ $Fox Corporation Class B(FOX)$ This is not a dying cable story. Fox is quietly executing a rare combo: ad-cycle dominance + disciplined capital returns. The market worries about cord-cutting. Fox is monetizing attention instead. 📈 Inflection status: CONFIRMED POSITIVE Growth, margins, and cash flow are all inflecting higher — driven by sports, politics, and digital scale. Atomic evidence: TV ad revenue +77% YoY (Q3’25, Super Bowl + election cycle) Tubi view time +40% FY2024, now ~2% of total US TV share Distribution revenue +3% despite ~7% linear subscriber decline Television segment EBITDA +87% FY2025 Operating cash flow reached ~$3.3B FY2025 This is a capital-return machin
📺 Fox Corporation (FOX / FOXA) — Inflection Analysis
avatarHuat99
01-10

🎰Evolution AB (EVO.ST / EVVTY) — Inflection Analysis

$Evolution AB(EVVTY)$ This looks cheap. But it’s cheap for a reason — and the inflection is still going the wrong way. Evolution was once the dominant B2B live-casino growth machine. Today, growth is being dragged down by **cyber attacks, higher global taxes, and self-inflicted compliance leakage**. 📉 Inflection status: NEGATIVE Revenue, margins, and cash flow are all deteriorating. Atomic evidence: Net revenue **-2.4% YoY (Q3’25)** vs +14.7% a year ago EBITDA margin **~70% → 66%** Asia growth stalled due to **video stream hijacking** Pillar II tax lifted effective tax rate to **~15%** European ring-fencing caused immediate revenue leakage This is not a balance-sheet problem. Evolution is **debt-free**, generating cash, and returning capital. 💰 V
🎰Evolution AB (EVO.ST / EVVTY) — Inflection Analysis
avatarHuat99
01-09
$ServiceNow(NOW)$ ServiceNow's Quiet Transformation: From Boring Back-Office to Autonomous AI Leader Most people still think of ServiceNow as just a platform for managing IT workflows. They are missing the massive pivot happening right now. The company is rapidly transforming into a leader in "Agentic AI"—building AI agents that don't just summarize text, but autonomously complete complex business tasks. The signs of this shift are everywhere: **Massive Demand:** Their backlog of future contracts jumped 36% year-over-year to nearly $20 billion. Big enterprises are hungry for this consolidation. **Cash Machine:** Cash profits surged 48% in the first nine months of 2024 alone. **Betting the Farm on AI:** They have committed a massive $4.8B to
avatarHuat99
01-08
$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ Is the AppLovin turnaround real? The data says yes. 🚀 They pulled off a massive pivot from a messy hybrid model to a streamlined AI powerhouse. The timeline of the transformation: 🎮 Phase 1: Struggling hybrid (losing money). 🧠 Phase 2: The AI engine kicks in (profits explode). ✂️ Phase 3: Sold the gaming apps "baggage" to focus. 💰 Phase 4: A pure-play AI advertising giant ($835M net income). The transition is complete.
avatarHuat99
01-08
$Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ Duolingo : The Owl is Printing Cash🦉💸 Is the recent profit explosion real, or just accounting magic? AI looked under the hood. Here is the simple truth: ✦ The "Fake" Spike: That massive profit jump? Most of it was a one-time tax credit. Don't be fooled by the headline number.⚠️ ✦ The Real Gold: The actual business is on fire. Users are more addicted than ever (daily usage is soaring).🔥 ✦ Efficiency: They are spending LESS on marketing while growing FASTER. That is the holy grail of software. ✦ The Verdict: Even without the tax bonus, this is one of the most disciplined companies in the market. Verdict: A Structural Compounder. The hype is backed by math.📈✅
avatarHuat99
01-08
$Salesforce.com(CRM)$ Salesforce : The "AI" Mask is Slipping? 🎭 They scream "Agentforce," but the numbers tell a different story. We dug into the financials—here is the reality vs. the hype. 🚨 The Truth in 4 Points: ➺The Cash Machine: Margins are massive (~22%), but it's from cutting costs, not selling more software. ➺The Growth Problem: Revenue growth has stalled in single digits. The "Hyper-Growth" era is over. ➺The AI Gap: "Agentforce" is everywhere in their speeches, but nowhere in the revenue line (yet). ➺The Pivot: They are buying back stock ($50B) because they can't find enough new customers. Verdict: $CRM is now a defensive utility stock wearing an AI costume. 📉➡️🛡️
avatarHuat99
01-07
$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ 🚨 Grab (GRAB) Analysis: The "Super-App" Finally Works 🚨 If you’ve been ignoring Grab because of its history of losing money, it’s time to look again. The latest numbers show a major turning point: the business is no longer just cutting costs to survive—it is now growing fast *and* making real profit at the same time. The Big Picture: For a long time, the question was, "Can Grab make money without slowing down?" The answer is finally "Yes." In late 2025, they grew their transaction volume by 24% while hitting a record profit milestone. The 3 Things You Need to Know: 1. The "Free Money" Era is Over (And That’s Good) 💵 In the past, Grab grew by giving out huge discounts (subsidies). Now, they are spending less on incenti
avatarHuat99
01-05

🚨 Thai Beverage (ThaiBev) Analysis: The "Resilience" Myth 🚨

$ThaiBev(Y92.SI)$ Breakdown of why this "defensive" giant is showing cracks. The Big Picture: Management keeps using the word "resilient," but the actual bank account says otherwise. The company is currently shrinking, not growing. Profits are down double-digits (-11.7%), and they are selling less alcohol than before. The "Beer" business is doing okay, but it’s not enough to carry the rest of the company. The 3 Red Flags You Need to Know🚩: 1. The "Cash Cow" is Getting Thinner 🐄 ThaiBev relies heavily on its Spirits business (Ruang Khao, Hong Thong, etc.) to make money. In 2025, they sold 3.2% less than the year before. When your most reliable money-maker starts shrinking, it’s the biggest warning sign there is. 2. The Food Business is Losing Mon
🚨 Thai Beverage (ThaiBev) Analysis: The "Resilience" Myth 🚨
avatarHuat99
01-05

🚨 Yangzijiang Financial (YF8) Analysis: The "Hollow" Turnaround 🚨

$YZJ Fin Hldg(YF8.SI)$ The Big Picture: On paper, YZJ looks like it's recovering. Profits are up, and they are pivoting away from risky China debt. But in reality, the "quality" of the business is getting weaker, and they are about to give away their best asset. The 3 Red Flags You Need to Know: 1. The "Paper Profit" Trick 📄 The recent profit surge wasn't because they sold more or lent more money. It was driven by "accounting reversals" (taking back money they previously set aside for bad debts) and government grants. If you strip those one-time gains out, the core lending business is actually shrinking. 2. The Cash Flow Problem 📉 While net profit looks positive, the actual cash generated from operations turned negative (-$10.6M) in the first ha
🚨 Yangzijiang Financial (YF8) Analysis: The "Hollow" Turnaround 🚨
avatarHuat99
01-05

🚨 The "Growth" Story is Over 🚨

$Constellation(STZ)$ The Big Picture: Constellation Brands is hitting a wall. For years, the story was about explosive growth (especially Modelo). Now, that engine is stalling, and the company is switching to "defense mode" to protect profits. They recently wrote off $2.7 billion in bad investments (mostly in their Wine & Spirits business), which basically means they admitted those past strategies failed completely. The 4 Red Flags You Need to Know: 1. The "Cash Cow" is Slowing Down 🐄 The Beer business (Modelo/Corona) is their main moneymaker. In early 2025, sales volume was growing at +6.4%. By late 2025, it flipped to shrinking by -2.7%. When your best product starts selling less, it's a major warning sign. 2. The "Kitchen Sink" Write-Off 📉 T
🚨 The "Growth" Story is Over 🚨
avatarHuat99
01-04
$APPLIED DIGITAL CORP(APLD)$ 🚀 APLD Analysis: The Big Bet – From Crypto Miner to AI Landlord **TL;DR:** Applied Digital is totally reinventing itself. They are ditching the "crypto hosting" game to become a serious "AI infrastructure" player. They have signed massive 15-year contracts (great news), but building these facilities is costing a fortune, and they are burning cash fast (scary news). 1. The Good News: The "Glow Up" ✨ APLD is effectively renovating its business model. * **Old APLD:** Relied on crypto miners with short, 3-year contracts. Unreliable and low profit. * **New APLD:** Signing **15-year leases** with massive AI companies (like CoreWeave). * **Proof it’s working:** They just started generating real money from setting up th
avatarHuat99
01-03
$UiPath(PATH)$ AI Hype vs Reality — Quick Take UiPath’s late-2025 rebound looks more like sentiment than substance. Yes, they reported GAAP profits — but dig deeper and almost all of it came from a one-off tax benefit, not stronger operations. Actual operating margins remain thin. The bigger issue: existing customers are no longer expanding. UiPath’s most important SaaS metric, Dollar-Based Net Retention (DBNRR), has fallen from 145% → 107% over a few years. That’s a clear sign the “land and expand” engine is stalling. New customers aren’t filling the gap either. Management is now heavily pushing an “Agentic AI” narrative — lots of buzzwords, but the numbers don’t reflect a re-acceleration yet. Growth has slowed to ~11% ARR, and cost-cutting
avatarHuat99
01-03
$Adobe(ADBE)$ Is Adobe hiding a growth ceiling? 📉 The data points to a "Good Business, Dangerous Narrative." The timeline from defensive M&A to "KPI Cloaking" is revealing: 🏰 Phase 1 (2023): Defensive moat building (Figma attempt). ⛓️ Phase 2 (2024): The "Regulatory Reset." Figma deal breaks; $1B fee paid. 🌉 Phase 3 (2025): Monetization bridge. Hype peaks as growth stabilizes at ~11%. 🎭 Phase 4 (2026): "KPI Cloaking." New segment reporting masks unit deceleration. Are we fooled by the "record" narrative?
avatarHuat99
01-02
$Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ Is the ~40% drop in Novo Nordisk ($NVO) justified? 📉 The data confirms a massive "Structural Deceleration." The timeline from GLP-1 euphoria to a "Kitchen Sink" reality check is brutal: 🚀 Phase 1 (2023): "Priced for Perfection" with +36% sales growth. 🚩 Phase 2 (2024): The "Bull Trap." Sales slow to 26% while impairments (ocedurenone) signal R&D risks. ⚠️ Phase 3 (Early 2025): The "Compounding Cliff." Consecutive guidance cuts start. 🏗️ Phase 4 (Late 2025): The "Reset." 9,000 layoffs and DKK 60B CAPEX collide with single-digit growth. The high-growth monopoly thesis is broken.
avatarHuat99
01-02
$Singtel(Z74.SI)$ Is the +50% run in Singtel ($Z74.SI) sustainable? The data points to a textbook structural turnaround. 🔄 We are witnessing a "Positive Cycle Handoff." The defensive phase of FY23-24—marked by "kitchen sink" impairments at Optus and shedding loss-makers like Trustwave—is largely complete. Now, Singtel is weaponizing its balance sheet. By aggressively recycling capital from legacy asset sales (Airtel stakes, Comcentre), they are funding a massive offensive pivot. The focus has shifted squarely to scaling AI-ready data centers via Nxera, capitalizing on structural ARPU growth at Airtel, and executing a S$2B share buyback program. The narrative has moved from "restructuring for survival" to "structural value realization."
avatarHuat99
01-02
$Seatrium Ltd(5E2.SI)$ Is the Seatrium turnaround real? The data confirms a successful "Kitchen Sink" reset. The transition from S$2B losses to margin acceleration is now structural: ✅ Net Current Assets: Restored to S$533M ✅ Gross Profit: Tripled YoY to S$395M (1H25) ✅ Margin Trajectory: 3.7% → 7.4% (1H25) The cleanup is done. Now comes the execution phase.

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