$ThaiBev(Y92.SI)$ Breakdown of why this "defensive" giant is showing cracks.
The Big Picture:
Management keeps using the word "resilient," but the actual bank account says otherwise. The company is currently shrinking, not growing. Profits are down double-digits (-11.7%), and they are selling less alcohol than before. The "Beer" business is doing okay, but it’s not enough to carry the rest of the company.
The 3 Red Flags You Need to Know🚩:
1. The "Cash Cow" is Getting Thinner 🐄
ThaiBev relies heavily on its Spirits business (Ruang Khao, Hong Thong, etc.) to make money. In 2025, they sold 3.2% less than the year before. When your most reliable money-maker starts shrinking, it’s the biggest warning sign there is.
2. The Food Business is Losing Money 🍜
The plan to grow their food empire (Oishi, KFC, etc.) has hit a wall. Profits in the food segment collapsed completely (-142%), swinging from a profit to a loss.
3. Rising Debt, Falling Profit 📉
Ideally, you want debt to go down when times are tough. ThaiBev's debt went up (Debt-to-Equity ratio rose to 1.05x) at the same time their earnings dropped. That is the opposite of what you want to see.
The "Restatement" Headache:
Because of complicated deals (like the F&N share swap), the company keeps changing how they present past numbers ("restating" them). This makes it very hard for normal investors to see clearly if the business is actually growing or just moving money around.
The Bottom Line:
ThaiBev is currently a "Good Business, Bad Investment." The core brands are famous, but the business is bleeding in its high-profit areas (Spirits) and losing money in its growth areas (Food).
⚠️ Watch This Number Next Quarter: Spirits Volume.
If sales of Spirits drop again (by more than 2%), it means the company’s main engine is broken. Until that stabilizes, the stock is likely to stay stuck or drop further.
Verdict: The "defensive" shield is cracking. Caution advised.
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