🎰Evolution AB (EVO.ST / EVVTY) — Inflection Analysis

$Evolution AB(EVVTY)$ This looks cheap. But it’s cheap for a reason — and the inflection is still going the wrong way.

Evolution was once the dominant B2B live-casino growth machine. Today, growth is being dragged down by **cyber attacks, higher global taxes, and self-inflicted compliance leakage**.

📉 Inflection status: NEGATIVE

Revenue, margins, and cash flow are all deteriorating.

Atomic evidence:

Net revenue **-2.4% YoY (Q3’25)** vs +14.7% a year ago
EBITDA margin **~70% → 66%**
Asia growth stalled due to **video stream hijacking**
Pillar II tax lifted effective tax rate to **~15%**
European ring-fencing caused immediate revenue leakage

This is not a balance-sheet problem.

Evolution is **debt-free**, generating cash, and returning capital.

💰 Valuation anchors:

€500m buyback (after €400m in 2023)
€2.80 dividend proposed
Earn-out reversal suggests past over-provisioning

What to watch (6–12m):

Cyber containment in Asia
Brazil studio ramp (newly regulated market)
Margins holding **above ~66%**

🧠 **Verdict:** Monitor, not buy. Value exists — but the operational inflection hasn’t turned yet.

🤖 AI-assisted analysis

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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But it’s cheap for a reason — and the inflection is still going the wrong way.</p>\n<p>Evolution was once the dominant B2B live-casino growth machine. Today, growth is being dragged down by **cyber attacks, higher global taxes, and self-inflicted compliance leakage**.</p>\n<p><strong>📉 Inflection status: NEGATIVE</strong></p>\n<p>Revenue, margins, and cash flow are all deteriorating.</p>\n<p><strong>Atomic evidence:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n <li>\n  <p>Net revenue **-2.4% YoY (Q3’25)** vs +14.7% a year ago</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>EBITDA margin **~70% → 66%**</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Asia growth stalled due to **video stream hijacking**</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Pillar II tax lifted effective tax rate to **~15%**</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>European ring-fencing caused immediate revenue leakage</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is not a balance-sheet problem.</p>\n<p>Evolution is **debt-free**, generating cash, and returning capital.</p>\n<p><strong>💰 Valuation anchors:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n <li>\n  <p>€500m buyback (after €400m in 2023)</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>€2.80 dividend proposed</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Earn-out reversal suggests past over-provisioning</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>What to watch (6–12m):</strong></p>\n<ul>\n <li>\n  <p>Cyber containment in Asia</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Brazil studio ramp (newly regulated market)</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Margins holding **above ~66%**</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>🧠 **<strong>Verdict</strong>:** Monitor, not buy. Value exists — but the operational inflection hasn’t turned yet.</p>\n<p>🤖 AI-assisted analysis</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/50a181f5b82dfa7b247997bcd6d60df1\" tg-width=\"2752\" tg-height=\"1536\"></p>\n<p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/EVVTY\">$Evolution AB(EVVTY)$</a> This looks cheap. But it’s cheap for a reason — and the inflection is still going the wrong way.</p>\n<p>Evolution was once the dominant B2B live-casino growth machine. Today, growth is being dragged down by **cyber attacks, higher global taxes, and self-inflicted compliance leakage**.</p>\n<p><strong>📉 Inflection status: NEGATIVE</strong></p>\n<p>Revenue, margins, and cash flow are all deteriorating.</p>\n<p><strong>Atomic evidence:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n <li>\n  <p>Net revenue **-2.4% YoY (Q3’25)** vs +14.7% a year ago</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>EBITDA margin **~70% → 66%**</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Asia growth stalled due to **video stream hijacking**</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Pillar II tax lifted effective tax rate to **~15%**</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>European ring-fencing caused immediate revenue leakage</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is not a balance-sheet problem.</p>\n<p>Evolution is **debt-free**, generating cash, and returning capital.</p>\n<p><strong>💰 Valuation anchors:</strong></p>\n<ul>\n <li>\n  <p>€500m buyback (after €400m in 2023)</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>€2.80 dividend proposed</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Earn-out reversal suggests past over-provisioning</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p><strong>What to watch (6–12m):</strong></p>\n<ul>\n <li>\n  <p>Cyber containment in Asia</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Brazil studio ramp (newly regulated market)</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Margins holding **above ~66%**</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>🧠 **<strong>Verdict</strong>:** Monitor, not buy. Value exists — but the operational inflection hasn’t turned yet.</p>\n<p>🤖 AI-assisted analysis</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/50a181f5b82dfa7b247997bcd6d60df1\" tg-width=\"2752\" tg-height=\"1536\"></p>\n<p></p></body></html>","text":"$Evolution AB(EVVTY)$ This looks cheap. But it’s cheap for a reason — and the inflection is still going the wrong way. Evolution was once the dominant B2B live-casino growth machine. Today, growth is being dragged down by **cyber attacks, higher global taxes, and self-inflicted compliance leakage**. 📉 Inflection status: NEGATIVE Revenue, margins, and cash flow are all deteriorating. Atomic evidence: Net revenue **-2.4% YoY (Q3’25)** vs +14.7% a year ago EBITDA margin **~70% → 66%** Asia growth stalled due to **video stream hijacking** Pillar II tax lifted effective tax rate to **~15%** European ring-fencing caused immediate revenue leakage This is not a balance-sheet problem. Evolution is **debt-free**, generating cash, and returning capital. 💰 Valuation anchors: €500m buyback (after €400m in 2023) €2.80 dividend proposed Earn-out reversal suggests past over-provisioning What to watch (6–12m): Cyber containment in Asia Brazil studio ramp (newly regulated market) Margins holding **above ~66%** 🧠 **Verdict:** Monitor, not buy. 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