📺 Fox Corporation (FOX / FOXA) — Inflection Analysis

$Fox Corporation Class A(FOXA)$ $Fox Corporation Class B(FOX)$

This is not a dying cable story.

Fox is quietly executing a rare combo: ad-cycle dominance + disciplined capital returns.

The market worries about cord-cutting. Fox is monetizing attention instead.

📈 Inflection status: CONFIRMED POSITIVE

Growth, margins, and cash flow are all inflecting higher — driven by sports, politics, and digital scale.

Atomic evidence:

TV ad revenue +77% YoY (Q3’25, Super Bowl + election cycle)
Tubi view time +40% FY2024, now ~2% of total US TV share
Distribution revenue +3% despite ~7% linear subscriber decline
Television segment EBITDA +87% FY2025
Operating cash flow reached ~$3.3B FY2025

This is a capital-return machine.

Fox has leaned aggressively into buybacks while the market debates linear decay.

💰 Valuation mismatch:

$12B total repurchase authorization
21M shares bought in FY2025 at ~$47
Additional $1.5B ASR launched Oct’25
Net income +51% YoY for shareholders

What to watch (6–12m):

FOX One DTC scale vs MVPD losses
Ad pricing resilience post-election
Smartmatic legal outcome (tail risk)

🧠 Verdict: Buy. Cash flow + ad power + disciplined buybacks are outweighing cord-cutting fears.

🤖 AI-assisted analysis

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

YTGIRL
01-12
YTGIRL
Impressive ad revenue surge! Fox's buybacks are spot on lah. Bullish! [看涨]

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Fox is monetizing attention instead.</p>\n<p>📈 Inflection status: CONFIRMED POSITIVE</p>\n<p>Growth, margins, and cash flow are all inflecting higher — driven by sports, politics, and digital scale.</p>\n<p>Atomic evidence:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>\n  <p>TV ad revenue +77% YoY (Q3’25, Super Bowl + election cycle)</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Tubi view time +40% FY2024, now ~2% of total US TV share</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Distribution revenue +3% despite ~7% linear subscriber decline</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Television segment EBITDA +87% FY2025</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Operating cash flow reached ~$3.3B FY2025</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is a capital-return machine.</p>\n<p>Fox has leaned aggressively into buybacks while the market debates linear decay.</p>\n<p>💰 Valuation mismatch:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>\n  <p>$12B total repurchase authorization</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>21M shares bought in FY2025 at ~$47</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Additional $1.5B ASR launched Oct’25</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Net income +51% YoY for shareholders</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>What to watch (6–12m):</p>\n<ul>\n <li>\n  <p>FOX One DTC scale vs MVPD losses</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Ad pricing resilience post-election</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Smartmatic legal outcome (tail risk)</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>🧠 Verdict: Buy. Cash flow + ad power + disciplined buybacks are outweighing cord-cutting fears.</p>\n<p>🤖 AI-assisted analysis</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e40003a31daaa8f3dd30d260784146fb\" tg-width=\"2816\" tg-height=\"1536\"></p>\n<p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FOXA\">$Fox Corporation Class A(FOXA)$</a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/FOX\">$Fox Corporation Class B(FOX)$</a></p>\n<p>This is not a dying cable story.</p>\n<p>Fox is quietly executing a rare combo: ad-cycle dominance + disciplined capital returns.</p>\n<p>The market worries about cord-cutting. Fox is monetizing attention instead.</p>\n<p>📈 Inflection status: CONFIRMED POSITIVE</p>\n<p>Growth, margins, and cash flow are all inflecting higher — driven by sports, politics, and digital scale.</p>\n<p>Atomic evidence:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>\n  <p>TV ad revenue +77% YoY (Q3’25, Super Bowl + election cycle)</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Tubi view time +40% FY2024, now ~2% of total US TV share</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Distribution revenue +3% despite ~7% linear subscriber decline</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Television segment EBITDA +87% FY2025</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Operating cash flow reached ~$3.3B FY2025</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>This is a capital-return machine.</p>\n<p>Fox has leaned aggressively into buybacks while the market debates linear decay.</p>\n<p>💰 Valuation mismatch:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>\n  <p>$12B total repurchase authorization</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>21M shares bought in FY2025 at ~$47</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Additional $1.5B ASR launched Oct’25</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Net income +51% YoY for shareholders</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>What to watch (6–12m):</p>\n<ul>\n <li>\n  <p>FOX One DTC scale vs MVPD losses</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Ad pricing resilience post-election</p></li>\n <li>\n  <p>Smartmatic legal outcome (tail risk)</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>🧠 Verdict: Buy. Cash flow + ad power + disciplined buybacks are outweighing cord-cutting fears.</p>\n<p>🤖 AI-assisted analysis</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e40003a31daaa8f3dd30d260784146fb\" tg-width=\"2816\" tg-height=\"1536\"></p>\n<p></p></body></html>","text":"$Fox Corporation Class A(FOXA)$ $Fox Corporation Class B(FOX)$ This is not a dying cable story. Fox is quietly executing a rare combo: ad-cycle dominance + disciplined capital returns. The market worries about cord-cutting. Fox is monetizing attention instead. 📈 Inflection status: CONFIRMED POSITIVE Growth, margins, and cash flow are all inflecting higher — driven by sports, politics, and digital scale. Atomic evidence: TV ad revenue +77% YoY (Q3’25, Super Bowl + election cycle) Tubi view time +40% FY2024, now ~2% of total US TV share Distribution revenue +3% despite ~7% linear subscriber decline Television segment EBITDA +87% FY2025 Operating cash flow reached ~$3.3B FY2025 This is a capital-return machine. Fox has leaned aggressively into buybacks while the market debates linear decay. 💰 Valuation mismatch: $12B total repurchase authorization 21M shares bought in FY2025 at ~$47 Additional $1.5B ASR launched Oct’25 Net income +51% YoY for shareholders What to watch (6–12m): FOX One DTC scale vs MVPD losses Ad pricing resilience post-election Smartmatic legal outcome (tail risk) 🧠 Verdict: Buy. 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