My Investing Muse (05Jan2026)
Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news
My Final Thoughts
Venezuela and Greenland: Emerging Tensions
It takes more than Delta Force to get the Venezuelan oil - dilution, extracting, blending, transporting, storing, sour and more. Investments are needed for hardware, software, skilled labour, maintenance, infrastructure, supply chain, management and more. Remember Afghanistan & Iran?
As of 2026, Venezuela’s rare earth output is zero, with no significant processing capacity due to political instability and lack of infrastructure. Reserves in the Orinoco Arc are estimated at 300,000+ metric tons, worth $200B+. Improvements: Foreign investment (e.g., U.S. partnerships), infrastructure upgrades, eco-friendly mining tech, and political stability post-Maduro could boost production to thousands of tons/year. - Grok
The post by oil analyst Michael Spyker estimates a $1 trillion cost to scale Venezuelan production and infrastructure to fully replace Canada’s 3 million barrels per day of heavy crude exports to the US, including $355 billion for upstream facilities alone, amid dilapidated power and logistics networks.
The situation in Venezuela demands work and investment for the country to recover and emerge stronger. The legality of recent incidents involving Venezuela is under scrutiny, raising further questions about international norms and responses. Meanwhile, the United States is reportedly formulating plans regarding Greenland, adding another layer to the current geopolitical complexity. These developments prompt concerns about the potential for additional incidents in the near future. The world is watching closely, considering how major powers such as China, Russia, and Europe might respond. Determining the appropriate response to these evolving challenges remains a critical question for policymakers and global institutions.
Implications for American Leadership and World Order
These unfolding events cast doubts on American leadership, and the rationale behind the perceived Russian and Chinese threats to Greenland appears tenuous. European nations may be reluctant to retreat in the face of these manoeuvres, suggesting that the situation could escalate. As a result, there is growing anxiety about the future of the world order as it currently exists. The prospect of more unpredictable “black swan” events looms, raising uncertainties for both governments and markets worldwide.
Economic Indicators and Market Volatility
The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases will be crucial for assessing inflation trends. However, for meaningful comparisons, it is essential to use consistent baskets of goods and services. The most recent CPI report has been criticised for omitting certain items, which has led to an understatement of inflation figures. Furthermore, the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) has acknowledged the use of estimates rather than actual survey data, resulting in questions regarding the reliability of the CPI data. In light of the geopolitical tensions stemming from Venezuela and Greenland, the financial markets may experience increased volatility in the coming week.
Investor Focus During Earnings Season
With the commencement of the Q4 2025 earnings season, investor attention will shift beyond just revenue and earnings numbers. The outlook and guidance provided by various companies are expected to be a focal point, as stakeholders seek insights into future performance amid ongoing uncertainty.
Broader Economic and Social Challenges
Although gross domestic product (GDP) figures are anticipated to show continued growth, this trend does not fully reflect the difficulties faced by many companies and families in America. The prevailing economic conditions highlight the need for a deeper understanding of the underlying challenges, as positive headline numbers may obscure persistent struggles within the broader population.
Financial Strategy and Outlook
Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.
As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.
Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.
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