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01-12

The current rally is no longer driven by classical supply–demand imbalances alone, but by a persistent geopolitical risk premium layered onto already fragile macro conditions.

Does the geopolitical premium justify further upside in gold?

To a degree, yes, but the nature of that upside matters. Gold above USD 4,600 reflects not a short-lived shock premium, but a structural repricing of risk. Several forces reinforce this: entrenched geopolitical fragmentation, sustained central bank accumulation, currency debasement concerns, and declining confidence in fiat stability during fiscal expansion. However, at these levels, upside is likely to be grind-like rather than explosive. Gold now behaves more as a strategic reserve asset than a momentum trade. Volatility spikes will increasingly invite profit-taking, especially if real yields stabilise.

2026 preference across gold, silver, and oil

Gold (Base case, defensive anchor)

Gold remains the most reliable hedge in a multipolar world. Its role in reserve diversification and crisis insurance justifies continued allocation, but returns may be more muted from current highs unless geopolitical stress escalates materially or monetary credibility weakens further.

Silver (Highest asymmetry)

Silver offers superior convexity into 2026. It benefits not only from monetary hedging but also from industrial demand tied to electrification, solar, and AI-related infrastructure. If gold holds elevated levels, silver’s historical tendency to “catch up” could produce outsized gains, albeit with higher volatility.

Oil (Tactical, not structural)

Oil’s upside is increasingly event-driven. Geopolitics can push prices higher in bursts, but longer-term demand uncertainty, energy transition pressures, and OPEC discipline limit structural appreciation. Options market activity reflects short-term positioning rather than conviction in a sustained bull cycle.

Bottom line for 2026

Gold for capital preservation, silver for upside participation, oil for tactical trades only. If forced to choose one on a risk-adjusted basis, silver offers the most compelling balance of macro leverage and valuation asymmetry, provided one can tolerate volatility.

Silver Freefall! A Healthy Reset or End of Squeeze?
Spot Silver loses 5% before the market open. Citigroup expects silver to likely avoid U.S. tariffs, which could encourage metal outflows from U.S. warehouses and relieve global tightness. After a months-long security review, the Trump administration paused broad tariffs on key minerals, including silver and platinum, opting for bilateral talks. Wall Street remains constructive mid-term, citing supply deficits, industrial demand, and gold spillover. With tariff risk easing, is silver’s pullback a healthy reset or the end of the squeeze?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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