(Part 3 of 5) Market Outlook of S&P500 (19Jan2026)

Market Outlook of S&P500 (19Jan2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has completed a top crossover, which implies a bearish outlook.

Moving Averages

The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in both the short-term and long-term outlooks. Furthermore, both the 50 MA and the 200 MA are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)

The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bullish outlook as they continue to fan upwards.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers at 0.11 and is also trending upward. This reading indicates that there is more buying pressure than selling, which is typically interpreted as a positive signal for future price movement.

More Technical Analysis

Based on the daily interval, 17 indicators display a “Buy” rating, while 4 display a “Sell” rating. This leads to a “Strong Buy” rating based on the daily interval.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

The market has entered the “Greed” region with an index score of 62.

The market continues to trend towards the “Greed” region from the chart above.

Based on the data above, most technical indicators lean towards a “Bullish” outlook in the coming day. However, the top cross (daily interval) from MACD suggests a more “Bearish” tone. In consideration, I lean towards a “Bearish” outlook.

@TigerStars

$Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$

S&P, Dow Break Records: Would January Effect Last?

S&P 500 and Dow Jones both closed at record highs. As January goes, so goes the year. When January closes positive, the S&P 500 is higher 89% of the time, with an average gain of 17% and an average maximum drawdown of 10.5%. When January is negative, average returns fall to -1.8%, with only a 50% hit rate and deeper market drawdowns. How do you see 2026 unfolding? Will U.S. equities continue to deliver double-digit gains, or lag behind other global markets? Will AI leadership rotate toward memory stocks or SaaS companies?

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