$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is sitting at a make-or-break level for this current bull cycle.
Inside my system, NVDA is still tagged as a dip-buy opportunity. But that tag only holds if we see a meaningful rally into the end of January. If we don’t, the bull cycle on this name is at real risk of rolling over.
The first place I always look is the Monthly BX.
Back in June 2025, the Monthly BX for NVDA flipped and increased. That’s the moment my system considers a new bull cycle “on.” I don’t try to catch the exact bottom. I wait for that confirmation. Since that signal, NVDA has climbed a little over 32 percent, even though the last four months have felt dead.
If you zoom in on those last four months, price has basically gone nowhere. We’ve been stuck between roughly $180 as support and $200 as resistance. That’s classic compression: a sideways range where price churns, people get bored, and everybody starts trying to front-run a breakdown or a breakout based on patterns.
Most traders get lost in those patterns. I don’t. I just ask one question first: what is the Monthly BX saying?
The reason I care so much about that indicator is simple. It’s a read on macro buying and selling pressure. Green bars or light red that’s increasing tell me buyers are taking control. Dark red and lower lows tell me sellers are in charge. As a trader, your job is to line up with the bigger pressure, the people who can actually move the stock. Fighting them might work once in a while. Over a decade, it’s suicide.
We can actually test this. If all you did for the last 26 years was enter NVDA when the Monthly BX increased and exit when it closed dark red or printed a lower low below zero, the result is wild. That simple rule would have produced about a 133,207 percent total return, with roughly a 67 percent win rate and around a 9.3 to 1 risk‑reward profile. You don’t need a PhD to see that’s a serious edge.
But here’s the part most people ignore: along the way, that same strategy would have taken a max drawdown of around 54 percent. ❌ That’s not a mistake. That’s the cost of doing business. In my broader playbook, I expect failed trades to lose 15 to 20 percent and full account drawdowns per cycle in the 30 to 40 percent range. Any system that can meaningfully compound capital will feel awful at times. If it never hurts, it never pays.
NVDA has been compressing since roughly September 2025. Price is moving sideways in that 180–200 range. At the same time, Monthly BX is still green. In my framework, that’s bullish compression: a resting phase inside a bull regime. Most of the time, that kind of compression resolves in the direction of the existing trend. In plain English: if the buyers still control the macro tape, sideways usually leads to another leg up, not a full‑blown collapse.
This is why, even if you can draw a potential head‑and‑shoulders pattern on the chart, I’m not eager to call a top here. My system doesn’t care about one pattern if the Monthly BX is still telling me buyers are in charge.
From a risk‑reward standpoint, this is actually where things start to get interesting. I don’t like
NVDA here because I “know” it will bounce. I like it because the downside is defined and the upside is open.
Here’s how I think about it inside my ETF-style approach. NVDA is just one name in a larger basket of equal‑weight positions. It’s not special. If January closes with the Monthly BX turning dark red or printing a lower low below zero, the bull thesis is done for now. I’m out. I don’t argue with it. I’d rather step aside and let it bleed, potentially down toward prior discount areas around the 140 zone, and wait for the next proper cycle.
If, on the other hand, price holds this compression range and the Monthly BX closes January green again, that tells me buyers defended the area and the bull cycle is likely still intact. Then the sideways chop we’re living through now probably becomes the base for the next expansion leg up.
Either way, I’m not guessing. I know exactly what will make me bullish, and I know exactly what will make me step away. That’s the real value of running a simple, rules‑based system: you stop waking up every day trying to interpret your feelings about a chart, and you just follow the same process across a whole basket of names.
NVDA is one example. I run this exact same logic across dozens of stocks every week inside my own “personal ETF.” The few big winners carry the load. Everything else follows the rules.
For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.
🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greater Flexibility Now
Find out more here.
Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SGD1000* to get SGD 688 stock vouchers*! The trade can be executed using any payment type available under the Cash Boost Account: Cash, CPF, SRS, or CDP.
Other helpful links:
💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉
How to open a CBA. How to link your CDP account. Other FAQs on CBA. Cash Boost Account Website.
Comments