Even with the recent pullback, I’m still targeting a $550–$600 zone on $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ by around March 2026.
That view is not based on a gut feeling. It comes from the same two pillars I use on every name in my system:
Monthly BX for the macro cycle
Price structure for bull vs bear regimes
Right now, both are still pointing up.
The first thing I look at is the Monthly BX.
If you want to follow along with this analysis on your own charts, you can get the BX Trender indicator and the free course that explains this system step by step at the link below.
We got a major flip there in September. BX turned and held green, confirming strong buying pressure on the monthly timeframe. In my playbook, that’s the definition of a bull cycle: Monthly BX green or increasing, not dark red and bleeding lower.
BX is built to track macro buying and selling pressure. It’s not trying to nail the exact bottom. It waits for institutions to actually show up in the tape and then tells us, “buyers are in control now.” As traders and investors, our job is to trade with that pressure, not against it.
But BX by itself is not enough. I also need bull structure.
Bull structure is simple: price makes higher highs, and when it pulls back, it makes higher lows. Until June 2024, TSLA did not have that on the monthly chart.
Before that, every bounce was just another lower high in a broader downtrend. Price would sell off, bounce, fail at a lower level, and then take out the prior low. That is classic bear structure: lower highs and lower lows. It’s also exactly where retail tends to pile in and get trapped, only for institutions to use the liquidity to drive price lower again.
That’s why I wasn’t focused on trading TSLA aggressively during that entire period. The structure didn’t support it. The bounces looked good on Twitter, but structurally they were just counter-trend rallies in a bear regime.
From June 2024 through September 2024, that changed.
TSLA carved out a large symmetrical triangle. Price started to compress. At the “head of the squeeze,” Monthly BX flipped and began to increase. That combination matters to me:
A potential reversal structure (compression after a long downtrend)
Plus Monthly BX showing real buying pressure for the first time in a while
That’s when TSLA really moved onto my radar.
If you go back and look at my public trades, you’ll see almost nothing in TSLA before that point. The bulk of my P&L in this name came after that structural flip and BX confirmation. That’s not an accident. It’s the system doing its job: ignore the noise until both the macro signal and the structure say “game on.”
Today, TSLA is still showing green Monthly BX. That means, by my rules, the bull cycle is still confirmed. At the same time, price has been compressing ever since the breakout in September. We’ve basically had about four months of sideways action.
In my framework, markets move in three modes: expansion, compression, and capitulation. Expansion is when we’re breaking out with strong BX. Compression is when price moves sideways and chops around. Capitulation is the waterfall selling phase most people try to “buy the dip” in and end up catching a falling knife.
Right now TSLA is in compression inside a bull cycle. Historically, that combination most often resolves with a new expansion leg in the direction of the existing trend. In plain English: bullish compression usually leads to a bullish breakout, not an immediate full trend collapse.
There’s another important piece here: volume profile support.
On my charts, there is a major high-volume area around $420–$440. This is an old price zone where TSLA traded with a lot of volume in the past. In our Volume Pro framework, that type of zone often acts as strong support in an uptrend. It’s where institutions have done a lot of business before, and they tend to defend those levels if the bull thesis is still alive.
If this breakout is going to happen, TSLA needs to hold that 420–440 block. We don’t want to see price slice through that area and stay below it with Monthly BX rolling over. Holding this zone while Monthly BX stays green would be a strong signal that buyers are still in control and that we’re just building a base before another move higher.
As of now, I remain bullish on TSLA and I still expect a breakout toward the $550 level, potentially into that $550–$600 range by around March 2026. That’s my working target based on the current bull cycle, the way TSLA has behaved after prior compressions, and the structure plus volume context on the chart.
If price gives up the $420–4$40 support zone and the Monthly BX confirms a dark red close on the monthly — meaning the macro buying pressure has flipped to selling — then the thesis is gone. At that point I step aside and let the stock do whatever it’s going to do without me. No arguing, no hoping. Just following the rule.
Until that happens, my job is to stick to the system: respect the bull cycle while BX is green, respect the structure while it’s still making higher lows, and let the trade idea play out instead of reacting emotionally to every pullback.
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