AVGO Looks Dead, but My System Still Targets 450

With the pullback this week, a lot of people asked me about $Broadcom(AVGO)$

So here’s exactly how I’m looking at it:

Why I’m still bullish
Why this area is a real buying zone
Why my target is still around $450 by late summer
And what would have to happen for me to drop the bullish thesis completely

First off. I don’t trade headlines. I don’t trade “vibes.” I trade:

One clear reason to enter
One clear reason to exit
Strict position sizing and risk

For AVGO, that starts on the monthly chart.

Step 1: Are we in a bull or a bear?

At the bottom of my chart is the Monthly BX histogram.

That one indicator answers one question: “Are buyers or sellers in control of this stock on a big time frame?”

Green or light red and increasing = buying pressure, bull cycle.
Dark red and making lower lows below zero = selling pressure, bear cycle.

I only want to be involved when that Monthly BX is green or increasing. That’s when institutions are actually pushing price higher. Fighting that flow can work for a trade or two, but over years it’s how most traders blow up.

On AVGO, Monthly BX flipped and confirmed an entry in June 2025. Price was around $243 at that point.

From that signal to the December high, AVGO ran more than 70%. That entire run happened inside a confirmed Monthly BX bull cycle.

So, big picture right now: AVGO is still in a macro bull cycle by my rules. The pullback is happening inside that regime, not after it has already died.

Step 2: What does the model expect?

On my chart there’s a purple line called the Price Behavior Explorer.

Simple way to think about it: It compresses years of backtest data from this BX system and draws the “most likely” path if the current cycle behaves like prior cycles. It’s not a guarantee. It’s a map.

For AVGO, that model:

Had a target for January 2026 around $312.
Is pointing to 365–368 around April 2026.
And around $460 by September 2026.

Even after this selloff, price is basically riding along that model line.

From current levels, if the bull cycle stays intact, there is still room for roughly 30–40% upside into late summer.

Step 3: Where’s the actual support?

Now we zoom into the weekly chart, but we keep Monthly BX on the bottom so we don’t lose the macro picture.

This is where Volume Profile comes in.

On the right side of my chart, I’m using a 150‑week volume profile. It shows where the most shares have traded over the last ~3 years.

On AVGO, two big blocks stand out:

Around 350: roughly 285 million shares traded
Around 332–334: roughly 274 million shares traded

That 332–350 zone is where the bulk of business has been done. In our Volume Pro framework, that kind of thick block usually acts like strong support in an uptrend. It’s where institutions have already accumulated size in the past.

So if AVGO is going to bounce, this is exactly where it should bounce:

Monthly BX: still green, bull cycle intact
Price: sitting right on top of a major high‑volume support shelf

If this is just a pullback inside a bull market, this is the area where smart money tends to defend.

Step 4: What if this level fails?

To stay objective, we have to talk about the other side.

Below roughly 332, the volume profile gets thin. There’s a big “air pocket” down toward the mid‑240s. That’s a price vacuum.

If AVGO breaks 332–350 and starts living below it, we should not be surprised by:

A fast, emotional selloff
A deeper correction on the order of ~25–26% to the downside

That’s not a call. That’s just what usually happens when price falls out of a heavy volume shelf into empty space.

So my line in the sand is simple:

Hold 332–350 with Monthly BX still green → pullback in a bull cycle.
Lose that shelf and then later see Monthly BX close dark red → bull thesis is done for now.

At that point, I don’t want to “buy the dip.” I’d rather let it bleed, then wait for the next proper cycle.

Step 5: What am I doing right now?

Two separate questions:

Is this a good area for a bounce by my system? Yes. Macro bull cycle still on. Major volume support underneath. If it’s going to hold, this is a logical place.
Am I personally starting a new position here? No. The clean entry, by my rules, was back in June when Monthly BX first flipped. From there, the move is already up ~36%. I don’t pretend buying now is the same trade.

If I had entered back at the original signal, this is a hold for me. I would be letting the system work and watching this support zone closely.

If I were flat and thinking about new money, I’d be aware I’m paying a premium compared to the system’s entry. The upside is still there if the model plays out, but the easy part of the move is already behind us.

Where this leaves us

As of today:

AVGO is in a confirmed Monthly BX bull cycle
Price is sitting on top of a huge volume support shelf at 332–350
The model path still points toward roughly 450–460 into late summer if the cycle holds

So yes, this drop looks ugly on a daily chart. But inside my system, it still fits inside a normal bull cycle pullback.

If that changes – if we lose this support and later get a dark red Monthly BX close – I will drop the bullish thesis and say so. No hesitation. No ego. Just following the rules.

Until then, my job is to respect the system, not my feelings.

For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs.

🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greater Flexibility Now

Find out more here.

Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SGD1000* to get SGD 688 stock vouchers*! The trade can be executed using any payment type available under the Cash Boost Account: Cash, CPF, SRS, or CDP.
Click to access the activity

Other helpful links:

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.