This is a quiet transition story the market is still doubting.
Dassault is shifting from license-led PLM to a subscription-first 3DEXPERIENCE model. Headline growth looks soft, but revenue quality and margins are improving underneath.
📊 Inflection status: STABILIZING → EARLY POSITIVE
Qualitative improvement ahead of reported growth.
Atomic evidence:
• Subscription revenue +16% Q3’25 (vs +9% last year)
• Recurring revenue mix 86% (+300 bps YoY)
• Non-IFRS op margin 30.1% (+100 bps)
• Industrial Innovation +9% Q3’25, accelerating
• 3DEXPERIENCE Cloud +36% Q3’25
⚠️ Bottleneck:
Medidata -3% growth and auto OEM volume contraction delaying top-line inflection.
💰 Price-conditioned valuation:
At **€23.35 (20 Jan 2026)**, DSY trades near ~17–18x FY25 EPS, pricing in permanent low-single-digit growth and ignoring the subscription J-curve.
🧠 Verdict: Buy. Margins and recurring mix are telling the truth before revenue does.
🤖 AI-assisted analysis
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