Based on Intel's Q4 results an-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

這是甚麼東西

Based on Intel's Q4 results and forward guidance, the current selloff appears driven primarily by near-term execution risks and supply constraints, though structural turnaround catalysts (18A/14A nodes) remain pivotal for long-term recovery. Key factors:

1. Q1 Guidance Weakness: Near-Term Execution Headwinds.

Revenue Guidance (11.7B–12.7B) missed consensus ($12.6B), citing supply constraints limiting Data Center/AI chip shipments.

Gross Margin Guidance (34.5%) fell sharply from Q4's 37.9%, reflecting yield issues and higher startup costs for 18A production.

EPS Guidance ($0.00) implies profitability pressure despite cost-cutting efforts.

2. Long-Term Catalysts: 18A Momentum vs. 14A Uncertainty

18A Progress:

Mass production underway (first U.S.-based leading-node fab), with Microsoft's "Griffin" AI accelerator order secured.

Potential design wins from NVIDIA, AMD, and others if yields improve.

14A Transition Risk:

Roadmap acceleration to 14A (beyond 18A) may divert R&D resources and delay customer adoption timelines.

External foundry customers remain cautious pending 18A yield validation.

3. Execution Risks: The Core Concern

Historical Inconsistency: Past node delays (e.g., 10nm, 7nm) undermine confidence in 18A/14A execution.

Margin Pressure: Q1 gross margin guidance suggests 18A yields are not yet optimal, impacting near-term profitability.

Leadership Transition: New CEO's restructuring may take years to show results, with AI opportunities still lagging peers.

4. Valuation Context

Current PE (TTM): 1367.54 (loss-making) vs. Forward PE: 16.66 – reflecting high expectations for future earnings.

Post-selloff, shares trade near 52.90(52−weekhigh:54.60), with technical support at 48–50.

Conclusion: High-Risk Inflection Point

Intel's selloff stems from near-term operational gaps (supply/margins), but the long-term thesis hinges entirely on 18A/14A execution:

Opportunity Case: If 18A yields improve by mid-2026 and customer pipeline expands (e.g., NVIDIA adopts 14A), current prices may be attractive.

Trap Case: Persistent execution issues or 14A delays could erode foundry credibility, extending financial pressure.

Intel Slumps on Weak Q1 Guidance: Opportunity or Trap?

Intel delivered a mixed Q4: revenue fell 4% YoY but beat estimates, EPS jumped 15% YoY, and Data Center & AI revenue rose 9% above expectations. Intel also completed a $5B equity sale to NVIDIA, and marked 18A as the first leading-edge node in mass production on U.S. soil. However, weak Q1 guidance on revenue, EPS, and gross margin sent shares down 11% after hours. Is Intel’s post-earnings selloff driven more by near-term execution issues or conservative guidance? If supply and yields improve after Q1, can 18A and future 14A customers re-anchor the turnaround story?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Intel also completed a $5B equity sale to NVIDIA, and marked 18A as the first leading-edge node in mass production on U.S. soil. However, weak Q1 guidance on revenue, EPS, and gross margin sent shares down 11% after hours. \nIs Intel’s post-earnings selloff driven more by near-term execution issues or conservative guidance?\nIf supply and yields improve after Q1, can 18A and future 14A customers re-anchor the turnaround story?","image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/facd6fe2822093d3f99644e4f567e6e6"}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>Based on Intel's Q4 results and forward guidance, the current selloff appears driven primarily by&nbsp;near-term execution risks and supply constraints, though structural turnaround catalysts (18A/14A nodes) remain pivotal for long-term recovery. Key factors:</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>1.&nbsp;Q1 Guidance Weakness: Near-Term Execution Headwinds.</p>\n<p>Revenue Guidance (11.7B–12.7B)&nbsp;missed consensus ($12.6B), citing&nbsp;supply constraints&nbsp;limiting Data Center/AI chip shipments.</p>\n<p>Gross Margin Guidance (34.5%)&nbsp;fell sharply from Q4's 37.9%, reflecting yield issues and higher startup costs for 18A production.</p>\n<p>EPS Guidance ($0.00)&nbsp;implies profitability pressure despite cost-cutting efforts.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>2.&nbsp;Long-Term Catalysts: 18A Momentum vs. 14A Uncertainty&nbsp;</p>\n<p>18A Progress:</p>\n<p>Mass production underway (first U.S.-based leading-node fab), with Microsoft's \"Griffin\" AI accelerator order secured.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Potential design wins from NVIDIA, AMD, and others if yields improve.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>14A Transition Risk:</p>\n<p>Roadmap acceleration to 14A (beyond 18A) may divert R&amp;D resources and delay customer adoption timelines.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>External foundry customers remain cautious pending 18A yield validation.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>3.&nbsp;Execution Risks: The Core Concern</p>\n<p>Historical Inconsistency: Past node delays (e.g., 10nm, 7nm) undermine confidence in 18A/14A execution.</p>\n<p>Margin Pressure: Q1 gross margin guidance suggests 18A yields are not yet optimal, impacting near-term profitability.</p>\n<p>Leadership Transition: New CEO's restructuring may take years to show results, with AI opportunities still lagging peers.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>4.&nbsp;Valuation Context</p>\n<p>Current PE (TTM):&nbsp;1367.54&nbsp;(loss-making) vs. Forward PE:&nbsp;16.66&nbsp;– reflecting high expectations for future earnings.</p>\n<p>Post-selloff, shares trade near 52.90(52−weekhigh:54.60), with technical support at&nbsp;48–50.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Conclusion: High-Risk Inflection Point</p>\n<p>Intel's selloff stems from&nbsp;near-term operational gaps&nbsp;(supply/margins), but the long-term thesis hinges entirely on&nbsp;18A/14A execution:</p>\n<p>Opportunity Case: If 18A yields improve by mid-2026 and customer pipeline expands (e.g., NVIDIA adopts 14A), current prices may be attractive.</p>\n<p>Trap Case: Persistent execution issues or 14A delays could erode foundry credibility, extending financial pressure.</p>\n<p><br></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Based on Intel's Q4 results and forward guidance, the current selloff appears driven primarily by&nbsp;near-term execution risks and supply constraints, though structural turnaround catalysts (18A/14A nodes) remain pivotal for long-term recovery. Key factors:</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>1.&nbsp;Q1 Guidance Weakness: Near-Term Execution Headwinds.</p>\n<p>Revenue Guidance (11.7B–12.7B)&nbsp;missed consensus ($12.6B), citing&nbsp;supply constraints&nbsp;limiting Data Center/AI chip shipments.</p>\n<p>Gross Margin Guidance (34.5%)&nbsp;fell sharply from Q4's 37.9%, reflecting yield issues and higher startup costs for 18A production.</p>\n<p>EPS Guidance ($0.00)&nbsp;implies profitability pressure despite cost-cutting efforts.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>2.&nbsp;Long-Term Catalysts: 18A Momentum vs. 14A Uncertainty&nbsp;</p>\n<p>18A Progress:</p>\n<p>Mass production underway (first U.S.-based leading-node fab), with Microsoft's \"Griffin\" AI accelerator order secured.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Potential design wins from NVIDIA, AMD, and others if yields improve.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>14A Transition Risk:</p>\n<p>Roadmap acceleration to 14A (beyond 18A) may divert R&amp;D resources and delay customer adoption timelines.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>External foundry customers remain cautious pending 18A yield validation.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>3.&nbsp;Execution Risks: The Core Concern</p>\n<p>Historical Inconsistency: Past node delays (e.g., 10nm, 7nm) undermine confidence in 18A/14A execution.</p>\n<p>Margin Pressure: Q1 gross margin guidance suggests 18A yields are not yet optimal, impacting near-term profitability.</p>\n<p>Leadership Transition: New CEO's restructuring may take years to show results, with AI opportunities still lagging peers.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>4.&nbsp;Valuation Context</p>\n<p>Current PE (TTM):&nbsp;1367.54&nbsp;(loss-making) vs. Forward PE:&nbsp;16.66&nbsp;– reflecting high expectations for future earnings.</p>\n<p>Post-selloff, shares trade near 52.90(52−weekhigh:54.60), with technical support at&nbsp;48–50.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>Conclusion: High-Risk Inflection Point</p>\n<p>Intel's selloff stems from&nbsp;near-term operational gaps&nbsp;(supply/margins), but the long-term thesis hinges entirely on&nbsp;18A/14A execution:</p>\n<p>Opportunity Case: If 18A yields improve by mid-2026 and customer pipeline expands (e.g., NVIDIA adopts 14A), current prices may be attractive.</p>\n<p>Trap Case: Persistent execution issues or 14A delays could erode foundry credibility, extending financial pressure.</p>\n<p><br></p></body></html>","text":"Based on Intel's Q4 results and forward guidance, the current selloff appears driven primarily by near-term execution risks and supply constraints, though structural turnaround catalysts (18A/14A nodes) remain pivotal for long-term recovery. Key factors: 1. Q1 Guidance Weakness: Near-Term Execution Headwinds. Revenue Guidance (11.7B–12.7B) missed consensus ($12.6B), citing supply constraints limiting Data Center/AI chip shipments. Gross Margin Guidance (34.5%) fell sharply from Q4's 37.9%, reflecting yield issues and higher startup costs for 18A production. EPS Guidance ($0.00) implies profitability pressure despite cost-cutting efforts. 2. Long-Term Catalysts: 18A Momentum vs. 14A Uncertainty 18A Progress: Mass production underway (first U.S.-based leading-node fab), with Microsoft's \"Griffin\" AI accelerator order secured. Potential design wins from NVIDIA, AMD, and others if yields improve. 14A Transition Risk: Roadmap acceleration to 14A (beyond 18A) may divert R&D resources and delay customer adoption timelines. External foundry customers remain cautious pending 18A yield validation. 3. Execution Risks: The Core Concern Historical Inconsistency: Past node delays (e.g., 10nm, 7nm) undermine confidence in 18A/14A execution. Margin Pressure: Q1 gross margin guidance suggests 18A yields are not yet optimal, impacting near-term profitability. Leadership Transition: New CEO's restructuring may take years to show results, with AI opportunities still lagging peers. 4. Valuation Context Current PE (TTM): 1367.54 (loss-making) vs. Forward PE: 16.66 – reflecting high expectations for future earnings. Post-selloff, shares trade near 52.90(52−weekhigh:54.60), with technical support at 48–50. Conclusion: High-Risk Inflection Point Intel's selloff stems from near-term operational gaps (supply/margins), but the long-term thesis hinges entirely on 18A/14A execution: Opportunity Case: If 18A yields improve by mid-2026 and customer pipeline expands (e.g., NVIDIA adopts 14A), current prices may be attractive. Trap Case: Persistent execution issues or 14A delays could erode foundry credibility, extending financial pressure.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/524784990647800","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1448,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["INTC","TTM","TTM.AU"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1862,"optionInvolvedFlag":true,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/524784990647800"}