If you want to learn social arbitrage, read this + bookmark.
Back in Nov '25, my wife wanted some Abercrombie leggings.
"What is it, 2010??" I asked her.
She said everyone on TikTok had this hoodie, and the brand was cool again.
Brings me to my point.
Maybe this guy is joking, maybe not...but this is real.
Observational & social data can be more powerful than technical & fundamental analysis.
The edge for retail over wall st.
The suits, living in high-rise nyc apartments, spending 20 hours/day in an office...they miss the real world.
Back to the $Abercrombie & Fitch(ANF)$ example real quick...after she told me about Abercrombie, here's what I did uncover the social arbitrage opp.
Went to Google Trends, which shows relative search demand, not absolute volume.
A read of "0" means demand was too low to register relative to peak interest...basically no one cared.
In March '25, interest for "abercrombie" spiked back to highs...and a few months later, my wife was asking for an $ANF hoodie.
Peaked my interest.
But that's not enough. I needed to observe more social sentiment.
Tiktok first.
The tool I lean on is the search autocomplete.
It reflects demand + popular related searches.
Also, in tiktok creative center you can see trending keywords.
Helps you see what's trending by category, total posts, and hashtags.
Saw this in the past with stanley cups, crocs comeback, skims, poppi, and abercrombie.
Gives you a good idea of what's hot.
Next. I read comments...a lot of them. ChrisCamillo style.
Tiktok comments. Adjacent reddit community (r/fashion, r/buyitforlife, etc) comments. Instagram comments.
I'm looking for patterns or unusually thoughtful/long comments...the effort to comment signals emotion.
Most importantly, research the company's ideal customers (young, affluent, athletic women in their 20s/30s)...
...and then go to the gym, mall, bar, and TALK to them.
Don't be creep. But ask questions, bring it up in convo, talk about pop culture. Gossip. Find out what they're obsesses with.
"Cool, kinda random but a bunch of my female friends are obsessed w abercrombie again?! Feels like 2015 again...have you seen the new stuff lately?"
Girl: "omg, funny you say that!"...then proceeds to talk for 20 min about how abercrombie hoodies are the softest in the world.
Do this a few times, and boom it's the cherry on top for your thesis.
After the google searches popped, my wife starting talking about it, and I studied comment on TikTok, I entered ANF late last year.
Turned into a huge win after they murdered earnings in November.
Part of my social & observational style of investing includes:
> tiktok trend emerges
> unusual or long comments across socials
> reddit sentiment shift or more active subs
> real world convos directly from company's ideal customer
By the time wall st analysts "upgrade" the stock, the trade is already crowded.
Culture tends to move first...then markets follow.
$Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$ (+ one other idea) social research coming soon.
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