Last Thursday saw several unusually large bearish orders opened, with the direction for most being somewhat ambiguous:
$NVDA 20260130 165.0 PUT$ opened 126.6k contracts
$AMD 20260130 220.0 PUT$ opened 59.5k contracts
$SMH 20260130 370.0 PUT$ opened 57.9k contracts
$AVGO 20260130 297.5 PUT$ opened 48k contracts
$ORCL 20260130 152.5 PUT$ opened 44.4k contracts
$TSM 20260130 295.0 PUT$ opened 31k contracts
$MU 20260130 342.5 PUT$ opened 19.5k contracts (this one appears to be a clear sell put strategy)
Typically, if Tuesday passes without a major crash under normal market conditions, these puts would likely expire worthless. However, given the ongoing earnings season, the possibility of a negative event on Wednesday or Thursday cannot be ruled out. We'll need to reassess using Monday's order flow data for better clarity.
$FXI$
Following last week's large bearish order for the 33 put $FXI 20260320 33.0 PUT$ , a large buy order emerged for the 32 put: $FXI 20260320 32.0 PUT$ , with 267.5k contracts opened.
Simultaneously, there was a large sell order (shorting) for the May expiry 39 put: $FXI 20260515 39.0 PUT$ , with 35k contracts opened.
The bullish/bearish stance on Chinese stocks is currently murky. I perceive two narratives competing: one is shorting based on a broad AI growth slowdown, and the other is investing long-term in China. The former could lead to a valuation reset across the US AI sector and drag down Chinese tech stocks, while the latter reflects a macro investment view favoring China's long-term development. The short-term impact from AI sentiment might be more significant.
$MSFT$
$MSFT 20260417 510.0 CALL$ opened 34k contracts, direction buy.
On the same day, $MSFT 20260206 480.0 CALL$ opened 14k contracts, direction sell.
Analyzing these two large orders together suggests MSFT's short-term price has likely bottomed. Combined with earnings this week, it's a suitable candidate for selling puts, e.g., the 440 strike: $MSFT 20260130 440.0 PUT$ .
$NVDA$
Institutions are managing a sell call position: $NVDA 20260130 190.0 CALL$ , hedged with a buy call: $NVDA 20260130 195.0 CALL$ .
The expected trading range for this week is between 185 and 195. However, bearish order flow indicates some are still betting on a flash crash. Considering the pattern of post-earnings declines in the first two weeks of the season, a pullback to 180 cannot be entirely ruled out.
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