Trump Strikes Again! Have You Gotten On the Resource Stocks Board?

Tiger_comments
01-27
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$USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$ surged yesterday. The U.S. government is set to acquire a 10% stake in USA Rare Earth, backed by a total funding package of around $1.6 billion (federal funding + loans) to accelerate the buildout of domestic rare earth mining and magnet production capacity.

This would mark the largest single U.S. government investment in critical minerals under the Trump administration so far.

1. Four Trump Deals in One Year! And the Market Went Wild

In the past year, Trump-backed deals have repeatedly sent U.S. stocks flying:

In 1Y performance, the stocks have rallied near or more than 100%.

2. What Exactly Is This Resource-Stock Rally Trading?

1. Policy Funding = Certainty. Example: $MP Materials Corp.(MP)$+ U.S. Department of Defense

DoD will purchase $400M of convertible preferred shares, plus warrants. Reuters reported the effective stake could reach around 15%

2. A “Repricing” of Financing Costs and Refinancing Risk. Example: $Lithium Americas Corp.(LAC)$

The government receives 5% equity via warrants, and also gains an additional 5% interest in the Thacker Pass JV project. This structure was disclosed in both DOE statements and company filings

3. Government Endorsement = Liquidity + Attention

Once a policy signal lands, the market typically reacts in this sequence: volume + attention surge first → valuation framework gets rerated → fundamentals slowly catch up later

3. What Should You Buy? Key Watchlist Summary

  1. $USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$ : A $1.6B funding package to build out rare earth mining in Texas and magnet production capacity in Oklahoma. The U.S. government participates through equity ownership + additional purchase rights.

  2. $MP Materials Corp.(MP)$ : $400M DoD convertible preferred + warrants. The policy goal is clear: U.S. independence in rare earth magnets. Reuters estimates ~15% effective stake.

  3. $Lithium Americas Corp.(LAC)$ : DOE takes 5% equity via warrants, plus an additional 5% interest in the Thacker Pass JV — a textbook “loan structure + equity protection” combo.

  4. $Trilogy Metals(TMQ)$ : Reuters reported a U.S. government investment of around $35.6M for roughly a 10% stake, plus potential warrant upside of about 7.5%.

  5. $CRITICAL METALS CORPORATION(CRML)$ : Partnered with U.S. critical minerals company GreenMet to develop Greenland’s southern Tanbreez project, focused on heavy rare earth extraction.

  6. $Energy Fuels(UUUU)$: A leading U.S.-based critical minerals company that has successfully expanded from traditional uranium mining into rare earth elements (REE) and heavy mineral sands (HMS).

High-Beta “Sentiment Plays” in the Same Theme

Rare Earth / Critical Minerals: AREC NB TMRC TMC UAMY

Lithium: SQM RIO SGML SLI ATLX

Uranium / Nuclear Fuel Chain: LEU CCJ UEC DNN NXE

Community Poll

Which theme do you think becomes the next major market storyline?

Rare earths + magnets (USAR / MP)

Domestic lithium supply chain (LAC / Thacker Pass)

Uranium + nuclear fuel (LEU / CCJ / UEC)

High-beta critical minerals small caps (UUUU / AREC / NB, etc.)

Would you join the resource stock trade?

Will Trump trade last for another 4 year term?

Leave your comments to win tiger coins~

Rare Earths Sink: Would You Buy the Dip & Bet on Trump?
Trump administration plans to take a 10% stake in USA Rare Earth as part of a $1.6B debt-and-equity package, marking its largest investment yet in critical minerals. The move aims to secure domestic rare earth mining and magnet production. However, rare earth stocks sink after recent rally. Would you buy the dip? Do you favor early-stage developers or established producers like MP?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Comments

  • koolgal
    01-28
    koolgal
    🌟🌟Some investors talk about a Trump trade lasting for another 4 years, especially around energy, deregulation & domestic production.  However the Trump trade is a market narrative, not a prediction.  That narrative is currently centered on the resource  megatrend.

    The truth is that they are a signal that resources are finite.  The next 4 years focus will be on Lithium,  Uranium, Critical Minerals and Nuclear Fuel.

    Among the 4 mega resource trends, I believe that Nuclear Fuel is the most important .  It provides the power to fuel the AI revolution and Uranium is the heart of Nuclear Fuel.

    Centrus Energy $Centrus(LEU)$ is the quiet gatekeeper of the nuclear fuel cycle .  It is only US company  capable of producing High Assay Low Enriched Uranium, the advanced fuel required for the next generation reactors.  This makes Centrus Energy the bridge between  Uranium & nuclear fuel.

    Exciting times are ahead for Centrus Energy.🌈🌈🌈💰💰💰

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG

  • 北极篂
    01-30
    北极篂
    最后一个关键问题:特朗普交易会持续 4 年吗?我认为人可能变,但方向不会变。关键矿产、能源安全,已经是跨党派共识。只是市场接下来会更挑剔——不是“有没有政策”,而是“你能不能把政策变成产能”。这,才是下一阶段真正的分水岭。
  • 北极篂
    01-30
    北极篂
    至于高贝塔小盘资源股,短期弹性最大,但也最容易在政策情绪退潮时被腰斩,只适合交易,不适合信仰。
  • 北极篂
    01-30
    北极篂
    所以你该买什么?我个人更偏向两类:
    第一类,是像 MP、UUUU 这种已经有产量或多元业务支撑的公司,政策是增量,不是救命稻草;
    第二类,是 LAC 这种融资结构被政府深度“兜底”的项目,至少最危险的阶段已经过去。
  • 北极篂
    01-30
    北极篂
    但这类反弹交易,并不等于基本面立刻变好。以 USAR 为例,1.6B 的融资方案确实解决了“钱从哪来”的问题,却并没有解决“多久赚钱”的问题。建矿、建磁体产能,本身就是一个跨周期工程,现金流兑现往往在政策热度之后。现在买入,更像是在买政策确定性 + 流动性溢价,而不是当期业绩。
  • 北极篂
    01-30
    北极篂
    這些所謂的“特朗普交易”,本質上都是同一套邏輯:政策資金進場,把原本高融資風險、長週期的資源項目,重新定價爲“國家級工程”。一旦政府成爲股東或準股東,破產風險、再融資風險立刻下降,市場願意給更高估值溢價,這也是爲什麼 MP、LAC、TMQ 這類股票能在短期內走出翻倍行情。
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