1. How I View Silver's Plunge

The 14% single-day plunge is dramatic but not entirely surprising within the context of the recent parabolic rally. My view is that this is a necessary and healthy correction driven by a confluence of factors:

Technical Overextension: Silver had risen nearly 50% in a matter of weeks, breaking decades-old records. The market became overheated, with extreme bullish sentiment and overbought technical indicators. A sharp correction was the most likely outcome.

Catalyst Alignment: The fundamental triggers you mentioned—easing geopolitical fears (reduced safe-haven rush) and resilient U.S. data (lowering odds of imminent, deep Fed rate cuts)—provided the perfect fundamental excuse for profit-taking.

Liquidity & Leverage: Such violent moves often involve the flushing out of highly leveraged long positions (margin calls), which can accelerate the decline.

In essence, this is the market "resetting" after a speculative frenzy. It does not necessarily invalidate the longer-term bullish thesis (industrial deficit, green energy demand, monetary devaluation), but it re-prices silver based on nearer-term realities.

2. Would It Decline Further to $60 or $50?

This is the key question. Let's assess the levels:

Path to $60: Very plausible. A drop to a 30% from the recent peak (~$85), which is a deep but reasonable pullback within a ongoing bull market. It would also find support near the late-May breakout zone (when silver first exploded above the previous $30 ceiling). This is my primary target for a potential buying zone.

Path to $50: Possible, but less likely unless macro shifts dramatically. A fall to $50 would be a ~45% correction, effectively retracing the entire historic breakout. This would require a significant shift in the macro landscape: much stronger USD and yields, a marked deterioration in industrial demand outlook, or a risk-on rally pulling capital from all commodities. While not my base case, it's a risk to be aware of.

Conclusion: $60 is a strong technical and psychological support level and is a clear target for this correction. $50 is a deeper, more severe scenario that would likely require new negative catalysts.

3. Have You Taken Profits?

Yes, a disciplined profit-taking strategy was crucial here.

For trades initiated during the initial breakout (in the $28-$35 range), partial profits were taken as silver surged above $30, then again above $50 and $70. This locks in gains and reduces portfolio risk.

The goal is never to sell the absolute top, but to systematically manage risk and free up capital for future opportunities—like the potential setup we see now.

4. What Price Would Be an Adding Chance?

My strategy for adding to positions is scaled and based on key support levels, not a single price point. Here’s the framework:

Initial Test: ~$68-$70 (Current Zone): A small, tactical add if there are signs of stabilization and bullish divergence on intraday charts. This is a high-risk, opportunistic entry for traders, with a tight stop-loss.

Primary Adding Zone: $58-$62: This is the most significant area to consider building a core long position. It aligns with:

The previous historic resistance (now support).

The 38.2%-50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire up-move from ~$20 to ~$85.

Major moving averages (e.g., the 50-day MA) will likely converge here.

Aggressive Adding Zone: $50-$53: If global macro conditions worsen significantly, this becomes a high-conviction, long-term investment zone. It represents a full test of the historic breakout and would offer an exceptional risk/reward ratio for the multi-year thesis.

Final Advice:

Patience is key. Corrections of this magnitude rarely end in one day. Let the market find its footing. Watch for a decrease in volatility and a basing pattern (like a double bottom) around the key support levels mentioned.

Monitor the drivers: Keep an eye on U.S. CPI data and Fed commentary (for rate cut expectations), the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and physical market premiums (especially in China and India) for signs of strong underlying demand.

Manage risk: Any new positions should be sized appropriately and use stop-losses until a clear bottom is confirmed.

In summary: The plunge is a healthy correction. $60 is a likely target and a prime area to consider adding. Have a scaled plan, be patient, and let the market structure confirm the bottom before committing full capital.