Retail All-In as Risk Cracks: SPX, QQQ, IWM Flash Warning, BTC Downside Risk

DavidMarlin
02-06

Retail risk-taking is near extremes, with Citadel’s gauge in the 95th percentile. Momentum just saw its worst day since March 2020, a rare 6-sigma move.

If Bitcoin follows past bear-cycle patterns, downside toward $40K or lower remains in play—pressuring $MSTR$, $COIN$, and ETH.

Retail is all in.

Citadel’s Retail Investor “Risk On/Off” Gauge is in the 95th percentile versus history.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$

Today was the worst day for Momentum (-11.5%) since the March 2020 Covid Crash.

6 sigma move.

Bitcoin is an asset that typically declines upwards of -70%+ during its Bear cycles.

If this pattern holds, BTC could see $40k or lower this year.

$Strategy(MSTR)$ $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ ETH

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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