In prior close elections, the $.SPX(.SPX)$ typically sold off in the weeks/days leading up to Election Day, and then rallied into year end on a clear resolution.ImageImage

The last 2 years of market gains may seem massive, but they're actually right in line with the average $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ gains in the first 2 years of a New Bull Market. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Image

Here's a quick analysis of $Microsoft(MSFT)$ 1. Return on capital is high, but below what is was in the past.Image2. FCF per share growth has been high (typically between 10%-15% per annum) and exponential).Image3. Microsoft has impressively seen its COGS, OPEX and SG&A margins all come down over the years, although its CAPEX margin has been creeping up. CAPEX is currently just under 20% of revenue.Image4. Microsoft has been consistently buying back its shares.Image5. Long-term debt is a small part of its balance sheet, and the interest paid on this debt is a small part of its expenses.Image6. Dividend growth (10% per annum) follows FCF growth (also 10%). Dividend growth has been fairly exponential.Image7. FCF yield has consistently fallen sin

The US election is traditionally a risk clearing event for the market, regardless of the winning party. Historically, we see market volatility rise into the event and subside after. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Imagehttps://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1841907948500451785

On the back of aggressive stimulus measures announced yesterday, we saw the largest 1-day buying in China stocks in almost 3 years.It was the 2nd largest daily inflow to China stocks on record. $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$ $iShares China Large-Cap ETF(FXI)$ $iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF(EEM)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ Imagehttps://x.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1838989310164353340

After last week’s Fed meeting, U.S. equities experienced the strongest net buying surge in almost two years. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ Imagehttps://x.com/TheShortBear/status/1838683862727004230

Confidence in the Fed to navigate a Soft Landing is growing. 52% of Fund Managers surveyed by BofA believe there will be no recession for the U.S. economy in the next 18 months. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Imagehttps://x.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1836033072191443245

Historically, Mid Caps post the best returns in the 3-12 months after the 1st Fed rate cut. $American Century Mid Cap Growth Impact(MID)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $RUT(RUT)$ Imagehttps://x.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1835079662357098497

Forward EPS estimates for AI stocks have continued to rise while price has pulled back. Relative to earnings trends, this is the cheapest AI stocks have been in awhile. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Imagehttps://x.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1834304245333721380

Relative to its own history, the market is not particularly cheap at these valuation levels. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ Imagehttps://x.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1833145371519787411

The 2/10 Yield Curve has finally un-inverted after 565 sessions inverted.Following 15 historical Yield Curve un-inversions (since ‘62), the median $S&P 500(.SPX)$ return is: +1M: +2%+6M: -2%+12M: +9%In reality, it’s all about Soft vs Hard Landing from here.Imagehttps://x.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1831747600103674065