Retail traders took over this week.Off-Exchange Volume hit 52% of all US equities traded yesterdayThis is the highest level on record, exceeding the prior retail peak of Jan ‘21 (~50%). $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $GameStop(GME)$ $AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ ImageHedge funds got roasted in Meme Stock squeeze. We just witnessed a 4-Sigma day in HF VIP Longs vs Most Shorted Stocks (-5.9%).This is the 2nd worst day since the original Meme Stock Mania. Imagehttps://x.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1791511378093609419

Hedge Funds were big buyers during last week’s rally. According to GS Prime, last week’s buying in Tech was the largest in 16 months (since Dec ‘22) and ranks in the 99th percentile vs. the past 5 years. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ ImageHere's what I posted a few days ago to compare:Over the past month, we have seen a sharp decrease in positioning across Hedge Funds, Retail, Asset Managers, CTAs, and ETF Flows. The 4wk decrease in positioning reached the most

Consensus estimates are projecting +3% YoY EPS Growth for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ in Q1.Last quarter, Wall Street was also modeling +3% EPS Growth and the realized number came in at +8%. $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ ImageApril is historically a strong month for the SPX. A mid-month dip during tax day/week has also been the norm since 1985.Image https://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1778551277963616400

We are currently in the corporate buyback blackout period for most of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ . Since 2000, US corporations have bought back $5.5T of stock. This has amounted to more demand than any other market participant, and it’s not even close. 👇👇ImageAnd why and how long buyback blackout period?The blackout period is typically 4-6 weeks prior to the company’s earnings report and ends a few days after the release.Imagehttps://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1777340193781014656

The 10 largest TMT（Technology, Media and Telecoms） stocks currently trade at a 28x Fwd P/E multiple.Still well below heights reached during previous bubbles - 52x at the Dot Com peak and 43x at the Covid Bubble peak. $Apple(AAPL)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Image https://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1770948349878808908

With Tech continuing to lead the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , there is a narrative that the sector has become too big/dominant.But history reminds us that it is not unprecedented to see 1 sector dominate this much. Just like Tech today, Energy ruled in the 1950s. Specifically, Tech’s size today equals the Energy sector’s peak in the 1950s. $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$

Tech valuations are still not nearly as frothy as they were at the height of the Dot Com Bubble.At the peak of the Dot Com Bubble, Tech traded at 2x the P/E multiple of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Currently, the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ trades at 1.25x to the SPX.Imagehttps://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1762565064656040242

Last week, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said that this rate cutting cycle could look more like 1995 when the Fed eased on moderating inflation rather than growth concerns.Despite the slow nature of that cutting cycle, the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ finished +42% in 1995.ImageGoldman’s Sentiment Indicator, which measures positioning across retail, institutional, and foreign investors versus the past 12M, is now into stretched territory.Imagehttps://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1762256469120917587

On a Price-to-Earnings-to-Growth Ratio, Magnificent 7( $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ ) valuations are still significantly lower than the rest of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ImageI’ve owned NVDA since 2017. Recent h

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ could see upside to $1100+ if it continues mirroring the trajectory of $Cisco(CSCO)$ during the Dot Com Bubble.ImageIs NVDA the new CSCO of its time?If this continues to track, Nvidia would need to reach all the way to 1100. Then, it would take a 23-year nap before seeing that high again.Imagehttps://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1754922707307614606/photo/1

This helps explain some of the Mega Cap( $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ ) outperformance. 👇👇👇The Mag 7 (only $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ left to report) is pacing for $523B in Q4 sales on +14% YoY growth. Comparatively, revenue growth for the other 493 stocks in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$

February is the 2nd worst month for US stocks since 1985 (behind only September).Historically, much of that weakness is backloaded. The last 2 weeks of Feb are the worst 2 weeks of the year for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ dating back to 1928.ImageThe S&P 500 is at ATHs while the Russell 2000 is still in a Bear Market. This has never happened before. The 3 closest instances? 👇👇👇All 3 cases were followed by a rally higher over the next yr with the outperforming and joining the SPX at ATHs.Imagehttps://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1752752317365887364

So far thru Q4 earnings, companies are largely outperforming the low bar set by the Street. 54% of companies have beat estimates by >1 Std Dev (vs. historical avg of 48%). Only 10% of companies have missed estimates by >1 Std Dev (vs. historical avg of 13%). $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ImageExcluding the Magnificent 7, Hedge Fund Long/Short exposure to Tech is currently at 4 year lows (in the 8th percentile since 2020).Imagehttps://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1752053905490432067

Q4 EPS revisions for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ have declined -11%.Outside of the Magnificent 7 $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ , Q4 EPS revisions for the S&P 493 have declined -15%.ImageExcluding the Magnificen

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is at ATHs while the Russell 2000 $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ is still in a Bear Market. This has never happened before. The 3 closest instances? 👇👇👇All 3 cases were followed by a rally higher over the next yr with the $RUT outperforming and joining the SPX at ATHs.ImageHistorically, slow and methodical rate cutting cycles have been bullish for stocks. This is what the market is pricing in ahead with a Soft Landing the consensus view. Imagehttps://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1749815385422197051