Subramanyan
02-14

Hmm, interesting take. Let me put a different pessimistic hat than the one I usually do: The recent action on Feb 12, with a sharp tech selloff and a flight to defensive sectors, might currently be a heavy tactical rotation rather than a confirmed long-term regime shift. Nasdaq fell 2.03% and Goldman's AI Risk Basket experienced a significant 5.1% plunge, broader market sentiment is being held in check by stabilizing economic data. But despite the tech slump, market breadth has remained relatively healthy, with industrials, energy, and REITs seeing selective inflows. 

The inflation tailwinds, valuation reset & economic growth being robust indicate a Tactical Pause rather than a Regime Shift.

80% Rate Cut By June: Will S&P 500 Extend Gains?
US January CPI surprised to the downside, with headline inflation rising just 0.2% MoM (vs. 0.3% expected) and 2.4% YoY, the lowest since last May. Core inflation also came in softer than forecast, pushing market pricing for a Fed rate cut before June to 80%. Treasury yields slipped as traders pulled forward easing bets, while equities initially cheered the cooling inflation print. Does softer CPI reflect higher possibility of rate cuts? Will the S&P 500 extend gains on rate-cut optimism?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment