News and my thoughts from the past week (23Feb2026)
The Cass Freight Index fell -7.1% YoY in January, to 0.89 points, now down to its lowest level since April 2009. This index tracks freight volumes across North America and is viewed as a gauge of US economic momentum. This also marks the 36th consecutive monthly decline, the longest streak on record. Over this period, shipments have fallen -20.9%, a similar decline seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis. According to Cass Information Systems, normal seasonal trends suggest February could see an -11.0% YoY decline. The US freight recession is accelerating. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
Following Iran’s brief closure of part of the waterway, tanker freight rates surged, with transaction levels climbing to their highest point in seven months. In case of a strike on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz could be closed, leading to massive oil supply disruption and a sharp rise in global oil prices. - X user Defense Intelligence
Battleships ruled the waters during World War 1. Aircraft carriers ruled the waters during World War 2. Will there be a new naval king in the coming conflict? Will aircraft carriers reign supreme? Or will there be other contenders like drones, energy weapons, and hypersonic missiles?
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Corporate insiders continue selling at RECORD pace. Insider sell/buy ratio: 4.8. This is the 2nd highest reading since 2020. Only matched in Feb 2021 (right before the crash). - X user Leshka.eth
Institutional Investors dumped $8.3 Billion worth of stocks last week, their 2nd largest weekly sale ever recorded - BarChart
47% of Americans surveryed said they had withdrawn money from retirement accounts due to inflation, per Allianz. - X user Unusual Whales
The Supreme Court ruled Friday that President Trump’s global tariffs are illegal, rejecting his use of emergency powers to impose trade duties. - X user Walter Bloomberg
Nvidia and OpenAI abandon unfinished $100bn deal in favour of $30bn deal — FT
The US economy is now reliant on older Americans like never before. Americans aged 55+ now represent 45.3% of all US consumer spending, the highest in at least 28 years. This is nearly DOUBLE the ~28.0% seen in the early 2000s. By comparison, those aged 54 and younger are down to just 54.7%, from ~72.0% in 2000. The gap between the two groups has narrowed by ~35 percentage points over the last 25 years and is on track to converge for the first time in history. This comes as 73.7% of all US wealth is held by those over 55, up from 56.2% in 2000, according to Fed data. The US wealth divide is accelerating. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
Today, Blue Owl Capital announced that it permanently halted redemptions for Blue Owl Capital Corp II (OBDC II), its $1.7 billion private credit fund aimed at retail investors. And this is not a small thing. Blue Owl Capital is a major alternative asset manager with $307.5 billion in AUM. - X user Crypto Rover
Fed Reserve just pumped $18.5 Billion into the U.S. Banking System this week through overnight repos. This is the 4th largest liquidity injection since Covid and surpasses even the peak of the Dot Com Bubble. Probably Fine, carry on - BarChart
EX-GOOGLE CEO WARNS OF POWER SHORTAGE. Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt says AI is driving a massive electricity crunch: “We’re running out of electricity… we need 92 gigawatts more power. The average nuclear plant is 1.5 gigawatts, you see the problem.” - X user Coin Bureau
Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt says we need 92 gigawatts more power because AI is consuming 'way too much' electricity.
US MARGIN DEBT IS AT AN ALL-TIME HIGH: US MARGIN DEBT AS A SHARE OF REAL DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME HAS EXCEEDED 6.0% FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, ACCORDING TO REAL INVESTMENT ADVICE ANALYSIS. - First Squawk
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