NVDA's earnings event was priced like a macro print — and it traded like one too. FOMC-style: sell the headline, maybe bounce the next day. NVDA? We'll see.
Early flow doesn’t look great.
A bearish position opened: 10k April 2nd 160 puts $NVDA 20260402 160.0 PUT$ . Notional: ~$2M.
April 2nd rings a bell. Last year’s tariff shock. This trade might not just be about earnings — macro’s in the driver’s seat. Iran, tariffs, China. Any of these could move markets.
Even with macro hanging overhead, I still think NVDA is a sell-the-dip name. Could be a chop year. Range still looks 170–195. Unless Trump does something stupid — then all bets are off.
This year is setup for a brutal bull-bear fight. Core question: where does the money come from to fund AI? The market’s gonna toggle between growth excitement and funding anxiety for the rest of the year.
$AMD$
Large call buyer stepped in: $AMD 20261120 260.0 CALL$ . Over $10M notional.
Could AMD outperform NVDA this year? Possible. Market cap is only $300B. Still, long calls in this environment? I’d watch, not chase.
$GOOGL$
Roll trade: closed the 370 call $GOOGL 20260515 370.0 CALL$ , reopened April 345 call $GOOGL 20260417 345.0 CALL$ .
Lower strike makes sense. Rolling to nearer-term? Less so.
$MSFT$
Another roll: closed 510 call $MSFT 20260417 510.0 CALL$ , reopened May 445 call $MSFT 20260515 445.0 CALL$ .
MSFT’s put skew looks cleaner than other megacaps. Price is back to April 2024 levels. Feels cheap. Better sell put candidate.
$AAPL$
Large sell put order: 270 strike $AAPL 20260417 270.0 PUT$ . ~9k contracts, $7M+ notional.
No drama. Solid cash flow. Memory cost pressure? Manageable. Outlook? Choppy year — same as everyone else.
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