100K Weekly Puts Bet on NVDA Sub-170

Still holding the view from earlier this week: SPY has more downside. Next week's risk remains elevated.

Buy Puts:

NVDA weekly 170 put closed, rolled to $NVDA 20260313 167.5 PUT$  — delta 0.14, 126k opened.
$SMH 20260313 362.5 PUT$  — delta -0.124, 52k opened.
$MU 20260313 340.0 PUT$  — delta 0.112, 19k opened.

Sell Puts:

$AMD 20260313 170.0 PUT$  — delta -0.065, 57k opened.

Direction Unknown:

$TSM 20260313 327.5 PUT$  — delta -0.166, 20k opened.

Summary: institutions shorting vols are picking deltas > 0.1 for puts they buy, and < 0.1 for puts they sell. Compared to the old "delta < 0.25" rule, this market is bearish.

Buy Calls:

$INTC 20260417 50.0 CALL$  — 20k opened, long calls.
Intel printing OTM calls for April? Bullish, but weird timing.

$SQQQ$

Rare deep OTM call flow on the triple-short QQQ ETF — total notional ~$3M+:

$SQQQ 20260320 90.0 CALL$  — 10k opened
$SQQQ 20260327 95.0 CALL$  — 10k opened
$SQQQ 20260327 105.0 CALL$  — 10k opened

The 95 call prints as sells, but it's likely buys — bid-ask spread >0.07 suggests buys overwhelming the offer. Execution tagged sell but intent was long.

Keep cash ready. Dip is coming.

$SPY$

Weekly 662 put for March 11 expiry $SPY 20260311 662.0 PUT$  — 21k opened.

Also a strangle for next week: $SPY 20260313 700.0 CALL$  / $SPY 20260313 680.0 PUT$ . Neutral-ish. No one-sided crash bet.

$NVDA$

Bearish: 126k of the 167.5 put $NVDA 20260313 167.5 PUT$ .

Bullish: March 20th 195 calls $NVDA 20260320 195.0 CALL$  also saw buys.

$CRWV$

Two sell-call rolls: Jan 130 and 135 calls $CRWV 20260320 130.0 CALL$  $CRWV 20260320 135.0 CALL$  rolled to April 110 and 115 calls $CRWV 20260417 110.0 CALL$  $CRWV 20260417 115.0 CALL$ .

$MOS$

Long-term call opened on fertilizer name: $MOS 20270115 30.0 CALL$ .

Rare print. Looks scary.

$KWEB$

Some dip-buying interest: $KWEB 20270115 33.0 CALL$ .

Problem is: if US equities sell off again, China names won't be spared.