Right place, wrong time.
Being wrong on timing can be just as bad as being wrong on direction.
Bc if you're wrong on timing....it's a 1v1 cagematch between you and opportunity cost.
How to time an entry:
First, define your timeframe (and be honest w yourself)
> intraday patterns
> multi-day swings
> month holds
> multi-quarter themes
Next, follow these five(ish) steps...
1) relative strength
- only stalk names in themes already showing relative strength vs peers/overall $spy (or weakness if you're short)
Ok, so now you have a defined timeframe and a name with relative strength.
2) trend context
- are you trading within the trend (breakout/pullback) or against it (mean reversion)?
I prefer being friendly with the trendly...so the higher lows are my green light zone (aka short term weakness in a strong uptrend).
3) risk/reward areas
- draw your “zones". I use demand/supply level + previous high volume @ price levels.
Only take entries when price is at (or very close to) those levels. This defines your risk, and allows you to exit quickly if wrong.
4) catalyst
- you'd be surprised how often news drops right when a stock is approaching a key level. Know this.
Could be earnings, data, breaking news, leadership stuff, anything really.
Regardless, the stock should have a meaningful catalyst soon. This make me 10x more interested in entering.
No catalyst? You’re just kinda sitting there twiddling your thumbs, hoping something magically moves the stock.
5) trigger
- this is the actual click the button moment...I look for something I call the "cluster of confirmations".
> price action is at a key level
> liquidity/flow (volume spike or options getting lit up)
> future catalyst
> overall market is constructive
the more the merrier.
Funny enough...my entire entry strategy revolves around positioning for the safest, quickest exit (if needed).
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