Weekly: Negative Catalysts, Oil Price & VIX Spike, US Dallor & Yields Reversals

Last Week's Recap

1. The US Market - Geopolitical Shockwaves Drive Flight to Safety

The geopolitical tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, along with the resulting spike in oil prices, have significantly influenced market dynamics. Safe-haven assets like gold and silver also saw increases as investors sought refuge from the uncertainty.

• Negative catalysts: The U.S. indexes fell for the second week in a row. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ finished down 2.9% on a total return basis, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ retreated 2.0%, and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ ended 1.2% lower.

• Emerging market sell-off: Risk-off sentiment hammered international equities; the $iShares MSCI EAFE Value ETF(EFV)$ Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Index both cratered nearly -7%.

• Oil price spike: escalating military conflict rippled throughout the Middle East, pushing oil prices to the highest levels since September 2023.

• VIX jumps: the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ closed at 29.5, up 48% from its closing level of the previous week.

• US Dallor and Yield reversal: On Friday, the yield of the 10-year Treasury $10-YR T-NOTE - main 2606(ZNmain)$ closed at 4.15%, up from 3.96% the previous week. While the $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ strengthened amid the flight to quality.

• Inside Q4 earnings: companies in the S&P 500 posted an average earnings gain of 14.0% over the same quarter a year earlier, according to FactSet data.

• Inflation watch Investors brace for critical data releases this week, with the Consumer Price Index (Wednesday) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Friday) set to guide Federal Reserve policy expectations.

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2. The US Sectors & Stocks - Tech and Energy Stocks Lead Market Movements

Sector: Last week, the overall market performed poorly, with the Energy sector being the only one to see gains, recording a positive return of +1.43%. The Basic Materials sector led the decline, dropping significantly by -9.58%. Furthermore, sectors such as Consumer Defensive and Industrials also experienced notable losses, falling by -5.19% and -4.69% respectively. In contrast, the Technology and Communication Services sectors had relatively narrower declines, dropping by -1.42% and -1.72% respectively.

• $Broadcom(AVGO)$ reported strong earnings, driven by AI demand, leading to a 3.4% increase in its stock price. The company projects over $100 billion in AI chip revenue by 2027.

• $Microsoft(MSFT)$ rose 4.13% as investors bought the dip following its sharp 30% drop from October highs, Goldman Sachs reinforced bullish sentiment by reiterating a Buy rating with a $600 price target, citing progress on Microsoft's custom Maia AI accelerator chips.

• $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$ saw a 15.3% rise in its stock price after reporting better-than-expected earnings and raising guidance, reflecting strong demand for AI-driven cybersecurity solutions.

• $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ surged 13.5% due to strong demand for high-bandwidth optical transceivers from AI data-center expansions.

• $Trade Desk Inc.(TTD)$ soared 22.9% following reports of potential ad sales collaboration with OpenAI, boosting investor confidence.

• $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$ experienced a 2.17% decline despite beating earnings expectations, as profit margins narrowed.

• $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ resumed stock buybacks, leading to a 1.2% decrease in its stock price.

• $Plug Power(PLUG)$ rose 19% after reporting better-than-expected earnings and announcing plans to achieve profitability by 2028.

• $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ jumped 12.2% amid a rally in crypto prices, driven by geopolitical tensions.

• $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ gained 13% after announcing a significant commercial agreement to expand space-based cellular broadband coverage.

• $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ fell 9.5% due to concerns over new AI chip export regulations.

• $Ciena(CIEN)$ dropped 15.6% following a mixed earnings report and cautious revenue guidance.

• $Costco(COST)$ reported strong quarterly results, leading to a 1.26% decrease in its stock price.

• $Sea Ltd(SE)$ saw a 15.2% decline after reporting mixed financial results and a slower annual GMV growth forecast.

• $Archer Aviation Inc.(ACHR)$ fell 12.1% due to higher-than-expected spending guidance.

• $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ decrease 1.85% amid positive market momentum in the EV sector.

• $Intel(INTC)$ declined 4.8% amid broader market weakness in the semiconductor sector.

• $BigBear.ai Holdings(BBAI)$ gained 7.3% after an analyst upgrade citing attractive valuation.

• $Adobe(ADBE)$ rose 8.1% following strong earnings and positive AI business outlook.

• $JD.com(JD)$ increased 1.9% after reporting strong financial results and positive guidance.

• $Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$ fell 11.6% due to a sharp decline in Chinese ETFs and ADRs.

• $Medra Corp.(MDRA)$ decrease 1.96% after settling a patent dispute, removing a significant legal overhang.

• $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ surged 9.6% after reporting strong earnings driven by AI demand.

3. Hong Kong Market - HSI rebounds 4.2% amid market volatility

$HSI(HSI)$ : The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rebounded 4.2% last week, closing at 25,757.29.

$HSTECH(HSTECH)$ : The Hang Seng Technology Index (HSTECH) experiecned a decline by 3.7%, closing at 4947.5, driven by gains in major Internet stocks like BILIBILI and BIDU, despite a mid-week dip.

• $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ saw a 4.49% decline last week. Despite the drop, the company is set to release its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on March 10, 2026, with expectations of a significant year-over-year revenue increase of 65.24%.

• $PING AN(02318)$ experienced a 4.93% decline. UBS released a report predicting a 9% year-over-year growth in the company's 2025 operating profit, with a 23% increase in the fourth quarter.

• $JD HEALTH(06618)$ fell 14.7% last week. The company reported a 26.3% year-over-year increase in revenue for 2025, reaching RMB 73.44 billion, and a 29.1% increase in net profit to RMB 5.37 billion.

• $LI AUTO-W(02015)$ saw a 1.9% decline. The company is expected to release its fourth-quarter earnings on March 12, 2026, with anticipated revenue and delivery adjustments.

• $JD-SW(09618)$ rose 2.1% last week. The company reported a 13% year-over-year increase in revenue for 2025, reaching RMB 1.3091 trillion, despite a 52.66% decline in net profit.

• $MINIMAX-WP(00100)$ surged 5.5% last week. The company reported a 158.9% year-over-year increase in revenue for 2025, reaching USD 79.03 million, with over 70% of revenue coming from international markets.

• $COSCO SHIP DEV(02866)$ rose 7.6% last week. The company experienced strong gains in the maritime and port sector, reflecting positive market sentiment.

• $XTALPI(02228)$ saw a 2.9% decline. The company expects to achieve its first full-year profit in 2025, with a significant increase in revenue and profit attributable to shareholders.

• $BILIBILI-W(09626)$ fell 9.0% last week. The company reported a 13% year-over-year increase in revenue for 2025, reaching RMB 30.35 billion, and achieved its first full-year GAAP profitability.

• $COSCO SHIP ENGY(01138)$ rose 0.8% last week. The company experienced strong gains in the maritime and port sector, driven by improved supply chain expectations.

4. Singapore Market - STI Declines 2.9% Amid Mixed Market Movements

$Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ : The Straits Times Index (STI) declined 2.9% and closed at 4848.25, influenced by various stock price fluctuations and market sentiments.

• $First Resources(EB5.SI)$ surged 15.61% as a palm oil play benefiting from the geopolitical-driven oil price spike, with investors betting on increased biodiesel demand. The stock jumped 13.22% on March 6 alone, reflecting strong agri-commodity momentum.

• $AEM SGD(AWX.SI)$ rallied 12.07% on continued AI chip demand strength and semiconductor sector recovery expectations. The test equipment provider continues to ride the artificial intelligence infrastructure build-out wave.

• $ST Engineering(S63.SI)$ gained 9.83%, hitting multi-year highs as defense stocks emerged as safe-haven plays amid Middle East conflict escalation. Heightened expectations for global defense spending positioned the engineering group as a beneficiary of increased military expenditure.

• $SIA(C6L.SI)$ plunged 7.38% after Q3 net profit plummeted 68.9% due to a high base from prior-year Vistara-Air India merger gains and widening losses from its Air India associate. The stock faced additional pressure from Middle East conflict risks to travel demand and jet fuel costs.

• $ComfortDelGro(C52.SI)$ fell 5.8% despite Silchester International Investors acquiring 4 million shares on March 4 to raise its stake to 7.05%. The stock succumbed to concerns about rising fuel costs and geopolitical impacts on passenger transport demand.

• $CapitaLandInvest(9CI.SI)$ declined 5.56% as the real estate investment manager faced headwinds from persistent high interest rates and flight-to-safety sentiment. Investor concerns about property market valuations in a heightened risk environment drove the weakness.

• $Wilmar Intl(F34.SI)$ slipped 0.9% after its Indonesian unit's legal head was sentenced in a palm oil-related bribery case. Although the company posted a S$1 billion bond to contest the charges, compliance challenges introduced operational uncertainty.

• $YZJ Shipbldg SGD(BS6.SI)$ retreated 3.46% following profit-taking after a 16% rally the previous week on strong full-year results. Despite maintaining a robust $23.2 billion order book through 2028/2029, the stock was dragged down by broad market correction.

• $Venture(V03.SI)$ edged down 1.4% despite solid Q4 metrics showing NAV of USD 8.73 per share and total NAV of USD 353.6 million. The decline reflected broad-based risk aversion affecting fundamentally stable names during the volatile week.

5. Australian Market - XJO.AU declined 3.8%

$XJO: The Australian stock market with the $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ falling 3.8% and closed at 8851. The decline was driven by concerns over global economic growth and a drop in commodity prices.

Energy was the only sector in positive territory, while Materials and Financials led the decliners. WDS was the only rose stock among top 20 market cap in AU market. The violent rotation underscored investor anxiety about the global growth outlook, with domestic miners particularly vulnerable to China's slowing stimulus impact.

• $Woodside Energy Group Ltd(WDS)$ +11.66%, benefiting from a flight-to-safety into defensive energy stocks and lingering M&A speculation. As recession fears mounted, investors sought refuge in the sector.

• $SANTOS LIMITED(STO.AU)$ added 10.36%, the stock remains buoyed by the ADNOC-led consortium's $18.7 billion acquisition approach from mid-2025, the potential 27% takeover premium continues to underpin the share price despite volatile crude markets.

• $BHP Billiton(BHP)$ fell 4.24%, dragged lower by softening iron ore prices and mounting concerns over Chinese steel demand. While production guidance remains steady.

• $Rio Tinto Ltd(RIO.AU)$ fell 2.99%, despite posting record copper production (up 11% YoY driven by Oyu Tolgoi underground ramp-up). The market focused instead on a 14% plunge in net profit and a worrying spike in net debt to $14.4 billion following the $7.6 billion Arcadium Lithium acquisition.

• $NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LTD(NAB.AU)$ fell 1.86%, despite the RBA's 0.25% rate hike in February being fully passed through to borrowers, the market priced in deteriorating credit quality ahead.

• $COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA(CBA.AU)$ dropped 0.11%, as Australia's largest lender, CBA's defensive characteristics insulated it from the worst of the banking sector selloff, though it wasn't entirely immune to the broader risk-off sentiment gripping the market.

The Week Ahead

1. Macro Factors -Key Economic Data and IPO Debuts to Watch last week

• This week, the macroeconomic factors include concerns over stagflation, with a focus on the consumer price index (CPI) for February (on Tuesday)and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for January(on Friday).

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the CPI(on Wednesday), with expectations of a 2.5% year-over-year increase. The core CPI is expected to rise by 1.4%. On Friday, the PCE price index is forecasted to show a 2.9% year-over-year increase, with the core PCE holding steady at 3%.

• Additionally, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for March will be closely watched, with a consensus estimate of 56.8.

2. Earnings potlight: $Hewlett Packard Enterprise(HPE)$ , $Oracle(ORCL)$ , $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ , $Li Auto(LI)$ , $Dollar General(DG)$ , $Lennar(LEN)$

Market trends will be influenced by earnings reports from major companies such as Oracle, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Adobe, and Dollar General.