ZNmain (10-YR T-NOTE - main 2503)
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Trump shooting offers test for stock market as investors weigh his election odds now

Unexpectedly, just as the data super week came to an end, the weekend ushered in even more exciting news. Trump, the "King of Knowing", was shot when he delivered a speech at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, and was characterized as an "attempted assassination" incident. This news has attracted the common concern of the world, and it will inevitably cause certain fluctuations in the market when the market opens next week. Therefore, investors should pay attention to the market situation after the market opens on Monday before making investment plans, so as to avoid losses caused by too much swing.As for the medium and long-term impact of the financial market, this incident mainly affected the probability of Trump being re-elected as president of the United States, which in turn caused the
Trump shooting offers test for stock market as investors weigh his election odds now
avatarFutures_Pro
2023-12-26

šŸŽ2023 Recap:Tiger Community Top 10 Futures Market Predictions

Investment Year Rewind![Miser]2023's market rollercoaster is over, and it's time to assess gains (hopefully)[Cool], losses (ouch)[Cry], and most importantly, lessons learned.But before we dive into our own portfolios, let's crown the prophet of profits!We're awarding a prize for the most accurate asset prediction among articles from our top community accounts.Did their insights guide your investments?Which predictions surprised you the most?Join the discussion and share your own 2023 investing wisdom!1. @AlexPoonFOTrading: We might expect gold to hit a record high this yearHe pointed out on January 8 that the combination of several factors ā€“ dollar weakness, the end of F
šŸŽ2023 Recap:Tiger Community Top 10 Futures Market Predictions

.SPX Has More Room to Go or A Downside Friday?

[Claw][Love]Happy Thanks givingļ¼The stock market was closed on Thursday and will also be closed early on Friday. Hopefully that the market will survive smoothly on Friday. However, some institutionsā€™s analysts give points that the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ still has room to go and have hope of reaching new highs. Some experts said the downside possible is much bigger.Are you going to trade on Black Friday?Yes or No?Below are some key findings discussed for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ on Friday.1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has more room to go1.Elliottwave Forecast@ElliottForecast, which provides forecasts for 78 markets, recalled back recentlyļ¼š
.SPX Has More Room to Go or A Downside Friday?
avatarChris23
2023-11-10

Equities vs US Treasuries: Which is a Better Investment Option?

In light of the Federal Reserve's adoption of a hawkish monetary policy, the investment landscape has witnessed a retreat from long-dated assets such as US treasuries, resulting in a notable decline in bond prices. The current 4.5% yield on 10-year Treasury bonds raises the pertinent question of whether this presents an attractive opportunity to engage in fixed-income instruments and money market funds focused on US treasuries. However, the appropriateness of this investment strategy is contingent upon individual risk appetites. For investors, particularly those with a high-risk tolerance like myself, the allure of investing purely in US treasuries for cash management must be scrutinized in light of its limited potential for attractive long-term returns. Instead, the enduring appeal of equ
Equities vs US Treasuries: Which is a Better Investment Option?
avatarRyan_Z0528
2023-11-10

Short-term Correction Needed, Bear ETFs SQQQ, SPXY are Winners

U.S. Treasury yields soared and stocks ended lower as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell poured a bucket of ice water on Wall Street's dovish sentiments with a stern tone.Based on the overbought levels territory, the longest rally of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ since 2004 that was just around the corner came to an abrupt end. Look at the ETFs tickers, 13 bear ETFs stocks rose over 2%+According to trading volume as of Thursday's close, only 3 ETFs $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ , $S&P 500 Bear 3X ETF(SPXU)$ , $VIX Short-Term Futures 1.5X ETF(UVXY)$ gained more than 2% in the ETFs list.Does the U.S. stocks still need to fall?I saw some
Short-term Correction Needed, Bear ETFs SQQQ, SPXY are Winners
avatarysawm
2023-11-07
In the ever-changing world of investments, finding a "sure thing" can be a challenging task. Lately, there's been a lot of buzz about US Treasuries and whether they are the most certain bet in today's market. As I ponder my investment strategy for the coming months, I can't help but contemplate the appeal of US Treasuries and whether they deserve a place in my portfolio. The US Treasury market has long been considered a safe haven for investors, especially during times of economic uncertainty. With the ongoing global economic challenges and geopolitical tensions, it's no surprise that many are turning their attention to US Treasuries as a reliable option. Historically, these government-issued bonds have offered a level of security that few other investments can match. The full faith and cr
avatarTechnicalHunter
2023-11-03

$SPX. short-term trend remains down until 20EMA can cross back above 50MA

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ bounced off its 61.8% Fibonacci level and closed back above its 200MA point at 4245.31 but is now coming into the trend line resistance.The short-term trend remains down until 20EMA (yellow line) can cross back above 50MA (pink ) and 50MA begins to flatten and slope up.We have entered the more bullish seasonal period of the year and with the FED ending its hike cycle and 10-year yields $10-YR T-NOTE - main 2312(ZNmain)$ coming down, there is a good chance we can end the year higher.The best five days of the year are the five trading days after October 27th. Huge gains the first four days, with one more to go tomorrow.@CarsonGroupLLCDid Mike Wilson become the new Jim Cramer?@Barchar
$SPX. short-term trend remains down until 20EMA can cross back above 50MA
avatarFutures_Pro
2023-10-24

Gold prices presently consolidating gains before advancing higher.

On Monday, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield $10-YR T-NOTE - main 2312(ZNmain)$ briefly breached the key 5% mark, reaching levels last seen in July 2007. The increase heightened concerns that rising borrowing costs could slow the U.S. economy. Typically, gold tends to fall when further interest rate hikes are likely. However, gold prices remain high due to the inflow of safe-haven funds triggered by the conflict in the Middle East. After a brief period of consolidation, safe-haven demand will continue to push $Gold - main 2312(GCmain)$ higher. We believe geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in the Middle East will continue to drive gold prices higher.$Gold
Gold prices presently consolidating gains before advancing higher.
avatarTiger_Academy
2023-10-24

How to understand US treasuries and yields?

10-year Treasury yield hit a 16-year high and suppressed the stock market. However, the relationship bewteen US treasury and yields has been confusing the investors.chart from bloombergFor example,US medium-term bonds maturing on August 31, 2024, with an coupon rate of 3.25%" has an annualized yield of 5.25%.Whatā€™s the relationship between treasuries and treasury yields? Why US treasuries have two different rates?Treasury prices and US Treasury yields are negatively correlated.The fixed face value of the US Treasury bond is $100.The true yield of US Treasury bonds = coupon rate income + trading spreadCoupon rate income: Coupon rate is fixed and determined at the time of bond issuance.Trading spread: The trading price of bonds usually fluctuates in the market.Therefore, the t
How to understand US treasuries and yields?
avatarTiger_comments
2023-10-20

Why treasury yileds hit records? Which sector may perform better?

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to a 16-year high, crossing 5% for the first time since July 20, 2007, reaching as high as 5.029%.Why do US treatury yields continue to hit new high?1) Powell speech reiterates the Fed's goal of bringing inflation down to 2%.My colleagues and I are committed to achieving a stance of policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation sustainably down to 2% over time.2) The latest auction of 30-year Treasury bonds revealed poor investor demand. The disparity between supply and demand triggers market concerns.3) The US federal deficit of $1.7 trillion for the 2023 fy led to increased interest costs for the government.Will the market dip further with higher US treasury yields?Will 2023 repeat what happened in 2007, 1987 and 1929?r/wallstreetbet
Why treasury yileds hit records? Which sector may perform better?
avatarRyan_Z0528
2023-10-18

US bond yields above 5% won't last, ETFs like TLT are bottoming?

The two-year Treasury yield $2-YR T-NOTE - main 2312(ZTmain)$ , which moves with interest rates expectations, rose 0.09 percentage points to 5.20%, its highest level since 2006. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield $10-YR T-NOTE - main 2312(ZNmain)$ is also at a high this year, exceeding 4.8%.Why do U.S. bond yields $2-YR T-NOTE - main 2312(ZTmain)$ continue to rise? What impact will it have on the U.S. economy and the prices of financial assets such as the $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , $WTI Crude O
US bond yields above 5% won't last, ETFs like TLT are bottoming?
avatarFutures_Pro
2023-10-10

How to trade oil and gold under Israel conflict?

Under the impact of the Israeli-Hamas conflict, market risk aversion sentiment is relatively evident. In addition to the sharp rise in oil prices $Gold - main 2312(GCmain)$ , the prices of gold $Gold - main 2312(GCmain)$ and silver $Silver - main 2312(SImain)$ have also gapped up, while the US stock indices $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ are trending downwards, and US bond prices $10-YR T-NOTE - main 2312(ZNmain)$ rebound.Still recommend to take profits of oil at $94?United States is likely to take significant actions on the supply side to suppress oil prices. However, the ina
How to trade oil and gold under Israel conflict?
avatarTwelve_E
2023-09-28

How Much More Upside in US Dollar?Bet UUP, USUD &Tiger Vault

How Much More Upside in US Dollar?Bet UUP, USUD &Tiger Vault
avatarTigerClub
2023-09-27

[Trade Feed] Timothy: Mastering Diverse Markets and Challenging Conditions

Trade Feed, small nuggets, big inspirations! Click Stable Master to view his trading informationTimothy, @StableMaster a software engineer in Singapore with a strong investment track record in US, Singapore, Hong Kong stocks, and A-shares markets.His initial success came from participating in high-return Hong Kong IPOs in 2020. In 2022, he successfully bottomed fish stocks during a Nasdaq downturn.Currently, Timothy is monitoring market developments and considering conservative investments like US Treasury bonds and money market funds.Want to know about Stable Master's real-time trading? Click St
[Trade Feed] Timothy: Mastering Diverse Markets and Challenging Conditions
avatarTwelve_E
2023-09-26

$TLT Fell 48% From Its ATH, Long $TMV & Short TMF as Further Interest Rate Hikes

Bond tracking ETF, $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ , falls below $90 for the first time since April 2011.The $39 billion iShares 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ has fallen 48% from its all-time high in 2020 and is currently at its lowest since 2011. Meanwhile, data from IHS Markit showed short trading in the fund increased, with short positions as a percentage of its float reaching the highest in about a month.Same sad story happened to $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares(TMF)$ In this regard, Todd Sohn, ETF and technology strategist at research firm Strategas Securities, said: It's all about interest rate
$TLT Fell 48% From Its ATH, Long $TMV & Short TMF as Further Interest Rate Hikes
avatarTiger_comments
2023-09-13

Higher CPI but rate will be unchanged in Sept. FOMC?

US headline CPI in August is 3.7% year-on-year, after rising by 3.2% in July; US core CPI growth in August is 4.3%, down from 4.7% in the previous month.CPI tonight will set the tone for the US dollar and risk assets in general the near term.CPI estimates from major institutions Energy-related segments push up CPIThe expected increase in oil prices drives most of the headline CPI growth.The Bureau of Labor Statistics citesrent, owners' equivaalent rent, motor, vehicle insurance, medical care, and personal care as pushing up core.Lodging away from home, used cars and trucks, and recreation pushed it down.Supercore CPI edged up on a monthly basis, the second straight increase. The Fed focuses on this number for a more "true" reading of inflation. In August, transportation serv
Higher CPI but rate will be unchanged in Sept. FOMC?
avatarFutures_Pro
2023-09-08

US bond yields have risen to a nearly 16-year high.What Can We Use To hedge risk?

The yield of the 10-year US Treasury Bond, known as the "anchor of global asset pricing", has been soaring recently. On August 22nd, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury Bond once rose to 4.364%, the highest level since November 2007, which also aroused the concern and worry of the global market. US Treasury Bond yield refers to the annualized rate of return of investors holding US government bonds, which reflects the market expectation and confidence in US economic and monetary policies. Rising yields in the US Treasury Bond mean lower bond prices and higher borrowing costs. So, why did the yield of the US Treasury Bond rise? What impact does it have on the global market? What will be the future trend?Reasons for the rise in the yield of the US Treasury BondUS economic recovery expectatio
US bond yields have risen to a nearly 16-year high.What Can We Use To hedge risk?
avatarFutures_Pro
2023-08-31

US Treasury Yields Retrace! How to Follow Treasuries on Tiger Trade?

Last night, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ recorded its largest single-day gain in nearly three months. At the same time, yields on various maturities of US Treasuries sharply retreated from their recent highs. Traders in the interest rate markets are betting that the latest signs of a slowdown in the US job market will ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further this year.Among them, the 2-year Treasury yield fell by 15.2 basis points to 4.905%, the 5-year Treasury yield dropped by 12.2 basis points to 4.282%, the 10-year Treasury yield declined by 8.1 basis points to 4.126%, and the 30-year Treasury yield fell by 4.6 basis points to 4.233%.Data released on Tuesday showed signs of a cooling US economy, indicating that the comprehens
US Treasury Yields Retrace! How to Follow Treasuries on Tiger Trade?