Weekly Overview Treasuries are the market’s pricing anchor. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, equities, gold, and crypto assets all need to be reassessed in light of high-rate pressure. The Treasury Department’s earlier buybacks failed to reverse the trend in long-dated bonds. A peak in yields still needs confirmation. If oil remains range-bound, and with the two remaining rate hikes expected this year already priced in, the rise in yields may slow. But an escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions or more hawkish statements from the Fed could change that assessment. The conditions for a bond rebound are building. CTAs’ positioning in 10-year Treasuries is low, while speculative net positions in 10-year Treasuries have moved from deeply bearish to neutral, increasing the possibility of a bon

Gold: The Short-Term Structure On September 28, with gold trading around $4,228.615, down approximately 0.06%, my short-term view was bearish. Central-bank gold purchases and concerns about U.S. government debt remained longer-term sources of support, but a stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields were exerting more immediate pressure on gold.$微型10年美債收益率主連 2609(10Ymain)$ $微型30年美債收益率主連 2610(30Ymain)$ $30年美債主連 2612(ZBmain)$ $10年美債主連 2612(ZNmain)$ On the 30-minute chart, gold formed a swing high near 4,318, then made a series of lower high

Over the past week, the core narrative shaping global asset pricing revolved around two themes. On the geopolitical front, negotiations between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reached an impasse, with both sides engaging in heated exchanges and refusing to yield. According to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data, Middle Eastern crude oil loadings fell from 20 million barrels per day in early July to 12 million barrels per day by the end of July, with the supply disruption shifting from a “risk premium” into a “physical supply shortfall.” On the macroeconomic front, U.S. headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year in July, while core CPI increased 2.5%; month-over-month growth resumed. PPI rose 4.7% year over year, while nonfarm payroll employment unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in

Over the past week, major asset classes delivered a strikingly uneven set of returns. Crude oil took first place with a 10.64% gain, silver followed with 4.04%, copper and gold posted modest gains of 1.10% and 0.81% respectively, while aluminium fell 0.73% — the only commodity to close lower. Against that broad commodity strength, U.S. equity index futures retreated across the board. Both of the week's commodity narratives point to the Middle East. On crude: renewed U.S.–Iran confrontation, a Houthi strike that shut in 400,000 barrels per day of capacity at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, Red Sea tanker traffic falling to multi-month lows, and OPEC+ preparing to stop raising output targets together pushed up the pricing of supply-disruption risk. On aluminium: according to Reuters, war in t

A recent string of mismatches between macro data and capital flows has revealed a new direction for the rotation across global asset classes. After deeply reviewing the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, the U.S. Dollar Index, the yen's trajectory, and U.S. equity fund flows, I want to discuss a new trading thesis that may differ from what many people think: the pressure that a rising Dollar Index puts on global equities is not over. Bottom-fishing is not currently suitable for U.S. stocks, but it may be relatively suitable for U.S. Treasuries. Why do I say this? To sum up my current logic chain: although over the past week the Dollar Index staged a pullback at its major resistance around 101.3, judging from the performance of the yen — the dollar's second-largest counterpart — and the t

Over the past week, renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran have shaken global equity markets, while gold has retreated sharply from recent highs and overall risk appetite has come under pressure. The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, with persistent geopolitical tensions interacting with shifting macro expectations; most investors are adopting a cautious stance, waiting for subsequent key U.S. economic data releases in order to better gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the trajectory of asset prices. As of around 4:00 p.m. on 12 June 2026, the weekly performance of major assets is as follows: In an environment where macro expectations are oscillating, looking at price moves alone is no longer sufficient to capture the main drivers of asset perf

Recently, the S&P 500 has maintained strength near its highs, but analyzing from multiple dimensions such as valuation, fund flows, and insider trading reveals that the internal market is not experiencing consistent expansion. The current US stock market is closer to a phase where 'index resilience remains strong, but structural divergence continues to deepen': At the index level, it is still supported by leading heavyweight stocks and capital inflow, but absolute stock-bond valuations are weak, sector valuations are diverging, insider trading signals and the internal strength disparities among the M7 all suggest that the constraints of operating at high levels have not disappeared. This article will systematically review the structural characteristics and potential constraints of curr

This session focused on how the U.S.-Iran situation may affect oil, gold, U.S. stocks, the dollar, Treasuries, and crypto under different scenarios, with special attention to the key one- to three-week window ahead.Guest Speaker: Cheng Jun (CME Guest Lecturer with more than 10 years of margin trading experience, specializing in gold and FX trading through a combination of macro analysis and Demark technical analysis)Course Link1. The current market narrative is still primarily driven by changes in the geopolitical situationMost assets are still following the same pattern: they come under pressure when tensions rise and rebound whe

First, let's take a step back: why did precious metals suddenly plunge? most people in the market see three main explanations for the sharp drop in gold and silver: Logic 1: Global central banks have turned more hawkish, and higher interest rates effectively raise the cost of holding precious metals. Logic 2: The Middle East conflict has created an oil shortage, and energy has replaced precious metals as the “hard currency” of choice. Logic 3: Gold and silver were heavily crowded trades, and profittaking on stretched long positions has triggered a selling spiral. But I’m not really convinced by any of the three explanations above I broke these three arguments down in detail and leaned more toward a different interpretation: gold and silver are being sold as assets to raise cash, wh

1. US Equities Outlook $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(NQmain)$ $Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2606(MNQmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 - main 2606(MESmain)$I undoubtedly remain bearish on the current trajectory of US equity indices. However, for those holding naked short positions or buying the VIX on dips,

Last Week's Recap 1. The US Market - Geopolitical Shockwaves Drive Flight to Safety The geopolitical tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, along with the resulting spike in oil prices, have significantly influenced market dynamics. Safe-haven assets like gold and silver also saw increases as investors sought refuge from the uncertainty. Negative catalysts: The U.S. indexes fell for the second week in a row. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ finished down 2.9% on a total return basis, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ retreated 2.0%, and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ ended 1.2% lower. Emerging market sell-off: Risk-off sentiment hammered international equities; the