Why $CVX $VLO $PBF Benefit from Venezuela Flow?

AfraSimon
03-10 16:02

Everyone’s focused on the risk in hormuz, but I’m positioning for the workaround.

Venezuela is the spare tire when it comes to oil.

Everyone’s glued to maps of the strait of hormuz, gaming out “what if 20% of global oil gets choked off”.

But I'm focused on where spare capacity lives (...venezuela) + how fast it can be brought online (if DC treats it as emergency policy).

*If* the US is serious about price stability, the path of least resistance is to ramp venezuelan heavy crude.

And I’m NOT trying to day trade $Colgate-Palmolive(CL)$ $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ headlines, I'm betting on the companies that benefit that venezuelan oil flow:

$Chevron(CVX)$ ...only US major actually producing in venezuela, pushing to expand its license/lift exports

$Valero(VLO)$ ...already lined up to import up to 6.5M barrels of venezuelan crude in a single month, making it the top foreign refiner of that heavy slate again.

$PBF Energy Inc(PBF)$ ...can run up to 60% of its system on heavy sour crude, which is openly bullish on more venezuelan supply as a margin tailwind.

TL;DR...do not forget that venezuela sits on about 1/5th of the world’s proven oil reserves, and it's the real workaround if oil supply tightens.


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