Both Sides Watching From the Sidelines

$NVDA$

Tuesday's put flow suggests the panic has cooled — at least for this week. But institutions aren't letting their guard down. 40k of the March 20th 170 puts were bought to open $NVDA 20260320 170.0 PUT$ .

If oil's reaction is any guide, we're likely in for the scenario I laid out yesterday: chop into triple witching. So NVDA grinds 180–190 into next week.

$USO$

USO saw big blocks in puts — mostly longer-dated. Two strike buckets: 100 and 90. Means the market sees a stalemate near-term. Probability of a major drop in the next two weeks? Low.

$TSLA$

First medium-term bullish call in a while: 510 calls bought $TSLA 20260515 510.0 CALL$  — 15.9k contracts, $7M+ notional.

Sell puts are back on the menu: $TSLA 20260313 390.0 PUT$ .

$SPY$

I think Trump wants to keep things quiet through triple witching. But who knows what blows up before March 20. So this institutional bear spread for next week makes sense:

Buy 660 put $SPY 20260320 660.0 PUT$ , sell 645 put $SPY 20260320 645.0 PUT$ .

$MSFT$

More long-dated calls: $MSFT 20261218 575.0 CALL$  and $MSFT 20261218 625.0 CALL$  continue to print. Single-leg, but weird timing. Why lever up here?

Puts say this is still a bottom. Once macro clears, sell puts into next earnings.

$KWEB$

Tencent bounce brought out some long-dated call flows:

$KWEB 20261218 35.0 CALL$ , $KWEB 20260618 33.0 CALL$ .

Still like the earlier structure better: sell 28 put + buy 32 call.

$CORZ$

26k of $CORZ 20280121 30.0 CALL$  — $11.7M notional.

Far-dated. Strike is 2x spot. Given CORZ’s history with acquisition approaches, could be someone positioning for another bid. Macro downside risk is real though — small caps get wrecked in a sell-off. Might toss a small speculative long in the drawer to watch.