Taco or halo, idc. I started a position in a few oil and gas stocks about a month ago. Others like $Venture Global, Inc.(VG)$  and $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$  I've been in for a while. I'd didn't invest because of the potential war with Iran. My investment thesis was to get into some stocks that paid an ok dividend that had a history of growing over time. I also wanted to replace my private equity dividend stocks (that I think are now high risk) with less risky options. Additionally I wanted to smooth out the volatility in my growth stocks. i mean in January this year I was up $7k, in February down $8k. 

Luckily, and I do mean by pure luck. I was starting new positions when oil was between $65 and $70 a barrel. Pitty I didn't go all in. But I never do that. I always start small and build over time. But now my investment thesis is screwed. Oil and gas stocks going forward Are now more volatile than my growth stocks. 

Looking at the history of past conflicts, there is a clear pattern that repeats. A conflict starts, oil spikes, but quickly calms down A bit. Then as people realize the conflict isn't ending in a sound bite, well oil spikes even further. Could it go to $150 a barrel? Who knows. 

America has stepped on a hornet nest however. So I don't see a quick resolution. So what will I do? Sell if oil goes to $150, buy more now for a potential quick buck, or just ride out the storm?

I have yet to have a position in any oil and gas stocks, with the exception of Venture Global. But venture is a different beast. I class it as a growth stock with huge long term upside. I mite sell everything if they go up significantly. But my positions are tiny. In $Canadian Natural Resources(CNQ)$  for eg I have 3 shares. Even if it doubled in price, why sell. I'll likely just hold and accumulate longer term. I'm not a short term speculator, so I'm not buying more right now. 

Venture is another interesting one, I have already halved my position. And I'm playing with pure profits, so why sell when the long term outlook is crazy good, and it's the house's money.

Even more interesting is the halo cry's to jump on the oil and gas roller coaster. From history we see in a crisis oil spikes, drops, spikes even more. But then it crashes. The bigs  don't seem to be buying right now, because they are in already. It's being pumped for sure, but I bet they dump on highs leaving retail investors naked when the tide goes out. Oil is not sustainable at over $100 a barrel, it is extremely inflationary at that price. Governments step in and use reserves. We are seeing this already. 

So in conclusion I'm not buying, just holding for now. When the tide goes out, and it will, I'm armed with swimming trunks. No nakedness here!

So if the bigs are pumping but not buying, what are they buying? Do as I say not as I do, as the old adage goes. The bigs are buying gold massively and silver too. In conflicts oil spikes then retreats just as fast. history shows us that gold and silver just climb At a steady rate Over a much longer time frame.

Ok let's go down the rabbit hole. My personal opinion, particularly regarding silver is that the COMEX is purposely holding down the price of paper silver. The comex sets the spot price for silver which impacts the price of actual silver In western countries. So if it wasn't such a pain I'd be buying actual silver at seriously cheap prices right now. But it's pretty much sold out. And what you can buy won't be delivered for months. interesting.

So rather than oil and gas, I'm accumulating some mining stocks and one streaming stock that doesn't have the production risk. 

I've written a few articles now on gold, silver, copper, plus oil and gas. feel free to friend me, I'll friend you back. And it will be easier for you to find those other articles.

As always, happy trading my fellow tigers

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