The stock market has been characterized by exceptionally choppy price action over the last seven weeks. We witnessed the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ go nowhere for three months, spanning the final quarter of 2025 through January 2026.
That directionless route is found a resolution to the bearish side as anticipated at the end of January when this publication anticipated “Cracks Under the Surface”. However, the most striking feature of the current market is the lack of conviction.
If you are a new trader feeling frustrated by the inability to find a clear trend as a bull or a bear, do not worry. This environment is uncommon. Usually, pullbacks are marked by solid bearish conviction candles that facilitate shorting, or bullish momentum markets that provide clear long entries.
For several months, we managed to navigate this by focusing on individual names, but with the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ around 30, the entire market is now presenting the same fragmented situation.
See the last part of the 2022 bear market, the -10% correction in 2023, and the healthy pullback in 2024, the candles have a solid red body that show a clear move after the opening.
When analyzing the S&P 500 since the start of the year 2026, you will notice candles with long upper and lower wicks, reflecting massive intra-week volatility. Price action frequently reaches bullish targets, breaches essential validation levels, and touches bearish targets all within a single week.
Recently, we are seeing “inverse U-turns” rallies at the start of the week that inevitably fade. While the resolution was neutral a few weeks ago, it has recently shifted toward a bearish outcome, with the index now declining 5% from its all-time highs.
In the NASDAQ 100, the choppiness is even more pronounced. Instead of solid red or green candles, we see tiny “bodies” with long wicks to both sides. This convictionless price action exhausts both bulls and bears.
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