SmartReversals
SmartReversals
I care about helping you navigate this market. Nowadays, it's all about permabears & permabulls, I use technical indicators with objectivity. God First.
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03-11 15:04

MAGS Downtrend Persists, Bulls Only Above $61.2

$Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$ The Mag7 ETF shows the situation for the giants: Weakening price action and here a downtrend set by the 20 daily average. The lower highs and lower lows is narrowing. A breach of $61.2 would trigger a revisit of the lows and a validation of the reversal candle. That said, bullish above $61.2. As the oversold McClellan Oscillator and the breach of the lower Bollinger Band suggested, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ price was set for a bounce today. The index now must sustain itself above the key weekly level to validate this move. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks,
MAGS Downtrend Persists, Bulls Only Above $61.2
avatarSmartReversals
03-10 15:37

$SPX Holds Key Level as $QQQ Shows Extreme Oversold

U.S. equities staged a technical rebound after extreme oversold signals triggered across key indicators. With the S&P 500 attempting to hold a critical weekly level and Invesco QQQ Trust showing historically deep oversold readings, the recent selloff may be approaching exhaustion even as volatility remains elevated. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ As the oversold McClellan Oscillator and the breach of the lower Bollinger Band suggested, price was set for a bounce today. The index now must sustain itself above the key weekly level to validate this move. 2. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ The Money Flow Index is as oversold as the 2023 correction and the 2025 bottom. It sits BELOW COVID crash levels, exceeded only by the 2022
$SPX Holds Key Level as $QQQ Shows Extreme Oversold

$SPX $IWM $DJI Extreme Oversold Levels Hint at Bounce

U.S. equities are flashing short-term oversold signals across multiple indices, with extreme readings in breadth indicators and Bollinger Band breakdowns suggesting a potential technical bounce after the recent selloff. 📉📊 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ The McClellan Oscillator has reached levels where price action begins to form a bounce, including the August 2024 Carry Trade selloff and the 2025 Tariff Crash. 2. $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Price printed an isolated candle below the lower Bollinger Band. The high daily volume validates the significance of this formation. Sell-offs rarely move in a straight line; a formation like this often marks a local bottom or a "climax" event. 3.
$SPX $IWM $DJI Extreme Oversold Levels Hint at Bounce

When the Strait of Hormuz Decides the Price of Everything

Geopolitical events present a unique pricing challenge for financial markets. Unlike earnings reports or Federal Reserve decisions that arrive on a known schedule, geopolitical shocks are by nature unpredictable, rare, and of uncertain duration. This combination of characteristics creates a specific market dynamic: sharp initial reaction driven by uncertainty, followed by rapid reassessment as facts emerge. There are three primary channels through which geopolitical shocks affect asset prices: 1) disruption to cross-border trade and investment, 2) contagion through financial linkages, and 3) elevated macroeconomic uncertainty. Of these three, uncertainty has the longest-lasting effect because it cannot be resolved until the event either escalates or de-escalates. Markets do not price the e
When the Strait of Hormuz Decides the Price of Everything

U.S. Equities Turn Volatile as Macro Risks Rise — $SPX $NDX $IWM

U.S. equities closed a turbulent week. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ posted a -1.3% weekly loss, outperforming the other major indices despite of the decline. $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ declined -3.0% for the week, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ lost -2.0%, and the small-cap $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ fell -4.0%, reflecting the reduced risk appetite that defined the period. Our Support and Resistance levels continue to frame the price action, with the SPX oscillating between the anticipated Central Weekly Level (CWL) of $6,882 and the extended bearish target of 6,745. We see the same pattern in IWM which topped slightly above its CWL of $261.0 b
U.S. Equities Turn Volatile as Macro Risks Rise — $SPX $NDX $IWM

MAGS Lead Tech Rebound: Sector Rotation Signals Bullish Reversal vs Defensives

$Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$ The magnificent seven are showing signs of a sustainable bullish reversal. The price bounced from the lower Bollinger band and the oscillator is curling up from oversold zone. In parallel, tech $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ closed green while defensives declined today. Reversal Rotation. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Over the last two weeks, I published two special editions on Sector Rotation. Rather than chasing the "Great Rotation," I anticipated that the trend was already overextended. Tech is now reclaiming relative strength while defensives are under pressure…as expected. $Invesco
MAGS Lead Tech Rebound: Sector Rotation Signals Bullish Reversal vs Defensives

SPX Rebounds but 4H Indecision Signals Caution

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ As anticipated, the price action suggested a bounce; after a -2% selloff, the index is returning to neutral territory for the week. However, indecision in the last 4H suggests caution. The question remains: is this a sustainable reversal or merely a relief rally? Moves do not happen in a straight line, and the price action today suggest a lot of caution for bears. Be careful being too bearish right now, risk management is key. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. 🎉Cash Boost Account Now Supports 35,000+ Stocks & ETFs – Greater
SPX Rebounds but 4H Indecision Signals Caution

Sector Rotation Reversal: Tech Stabilizes as Defensives Pull Back

Over the past two weeks, I published two special analyses regarding sector rotation, highlighting that the “Great Rotation” had become overextended. My thesis was clear: Technology, Discretionary, and Finance were overstretched to the downside, while defensive sectors like Healthcare, Consumer Staples, and Materials were overbought and due for a consolidation. The market has validated this move this week: Staples are down -3.2%, Materials -2.8%, and Healthcare -2.0%. Meanwhile, Technology is in the green +0.8%, with Discretionary and Financials flattening out despite of the recent selloff. These conditions confirm the “stretched rotation” thesis based on technicals presented last week, and today we will use specific technical levels to determine if this trend has further room to run. Preci
Sector Rotation Reversal: Tech Stabilizes as Defensives Pull Back

$META $AAPL $PLTR show reversal and breakout potential

This week’s market scan shows $META poised for a possible bear trap bounce, $AAPL signaling bearish continuation after oscillator reversal, and $PLTR displaying bullish momentum with breakout potential toward 150. 1. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Each Weekly Compass provides a full market assessment covering indices, volatility, breadth, and a set of high-probability setups. While geopolitical tension kept META off the official list for now, it is my "9th setup" if we see a bear trap and bounce this week (Link Bio) 2. $Apple(AAPL)$ Indecisive price action has preceded pullbacks, and an oscillator crossover has signaled a bearish reversal. While price found support at the ascending diagonal, Friday's candle
$META $AAPL $PLTR show reversal and breakout potential

Volatility Returns? Tactical Setups in SPX, QQQ, SMH, GLD Amid Iran Risk

In early 2025, I modeled a potential decline to $4,800 for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ; the index eventually bottomed at $4,830 in April. This followed my previous warnings regarding the July 2024 selloff, which ultimately found its floor during the Yen carry-trade liquidation in August. Today, we are witnessing a distinct asymmetric condition in the market. Sectors outside of Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials are rallying, while Tech, Megacaps, and Bitcoin (BTC used as a “risk-on” thermometer), have already reached oversold conditions. This is atypical, as major market tops are usually characterized by synchronized overbought conditions across all sectors. In today’s publication you will read the different signals to watch ahead of
Volatility Returns? Tactical Setups in SPX, QQQ, SMH, GLD Amid Iran Risk

$DJI Flashes Dual Reversal Signal with RSI Above 70

$Dow Jones(.DJI)$ has printed a monthly gravestone, a rare occurrence on this long-term timeframe. With the RSI above 70, there are two conditions that have preceded significant corrections. Historically, the Dow Jones has signaled major reversals under two specific conditions: The monthly RSI exceeds 70 (as seen in 2018, 2022, and 2025). A monthly reversal candle is formed (as seen in 2020). Currently, both signals are flashing: the RSI has hit 71, and a gravestone doji has formed. This indicates that the price has erased its monthly gains, signaling a significant loss of bullish momentum. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well
$DJI Flashes Dual Reversal Signal with RSI Above 70

$SPX Slips as $NVDA and $GS Sink, Energy Rallies

U.S. equities concluded a volatile week and month on a downbeat note, with major indices finishing in the red on Friday. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.9% in February to close at 6,878.9, slipping below its 50-day moving average. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ shed 2.3% for the month, while the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ finished flat, wiping out its previous rally. Small-caps followed suit, as $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ erased its monthly gains to close unchanged. Sentiment was weighed down by hotter-than-expected PPI data, which pushed out Fed rate-cut expectations and reignited fears over AI infrastructure disruption. Technology and financi
$SPX Slips as $NVDA and $GS Sink, Energy Rallies

Is SPX Ready to Break Higher as IWM Builds a Launchpad?

1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Since only Tech sold off while $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ rallied and other sectors held firm, bullish potential remains. With MACD and Stochastic crossing bullishly, the outlook stays positive as long as $6,910 holds and the diagonal is finally breached. SPX - 15 minutes chart: Key moment to see if this time is different, and the gap is filled the next day. 2. $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ IWM closed in the green while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ suffered losses. 837M in outflows in small and micro caps last week MACD crosso
Is SPX Ready to Break Higher as IWM Builds a Launchpad?

Sector Momentum Map: Cyclical & Defensive Leadership, Tech Lags

Sector rotation occurs because different industries respond uniquely to interest rates, inflation, and consumer demand. The Early Stage: Falling interest rates typically breathe life into the Information Technology and Real Estate sectors as borrowing costs drop. The Late Stage: As an economy overheats and inflation stays “sticky” (as forecasted for much of 2026), investors rotate into Energy and Materials to hedge against rising prices. Defensive Shifting: When growth concerns arise, “smart money” often flocks to Consumer Staples and Health Care, which are sectors that provide essential services regardless of economic health. For new investors: the Momentum Map visualizes where each sector stands regarding its recent momentum and relative strength against the S&P 500
Sector Momentum Map: Cyclical & Defensive Leadership, Tech Lags

$SPX Holds 100DMA as $VIX Hedge Pressure Cools

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ : The "First-Day Trap" thesis posted yesterday is playing out. The price held its 100DMA, with the $6,818 support level acting as a bouncer. Bulls still have work to do: the primary task is to maintain price action above $6,866, followed by a necessary reclaim of $6,910. Cboe index $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ hedge readings on February 2026: Feb 10 → 53.8% Feb 13 → 51.9% Feb 17 → 54.9% ← peak Feb 20 → 42.7% Feb 23 → 45.6% Above 50% = elevated institutional hedging. Markets were under pressure during that stretch. Heading into Tuesday's open, reading is declining. Worth monitoring. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 wit
$SPX Holds 100DMA as $VIX Hedge Pressure Cools

SPX Bounce Confirms, NDX Faces Make-or-Break Week

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ : The bullish Stochastic crossover previously highlighted, combined with the bounce from the lower Bollinger Band, provided excellent confirmation for the recent move. The 20DMA must now be flipped to support to consolidate this bullish continuation for a retest of the highs. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ : A breach of the lower Bollinger Band has propelled a visit to the 20DMA at the very least in previous cases. Even during the 2025 bear market, this pattern held. If the index fails to reach $25,200ish this week and the bounce fades before then, we would be looking at a major bearish signal.
SPX Bounce Confirms, NDX Faces Make-or-Break Week

QQQ, SPY & XOM Hit Targets as AAPL and COST Fall Short

As anticipated last week, there was a chance that certain targets would not be fully reached, given how overextended the moves had become for the securities selected. The gap required to hit those primary targets was substantial. Despite this, several of our high-probability setups performed well: $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ moved toward the $583.1 target, and $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ neared well its $673.8 objective. Additionally, $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ successfully reached its target of $145.3. We also held a bearish outlook for $Apple(AAPL)$ , which serves as an important case study analyzed in the charts below. While Apple
QQQ, SPY & XOM Hit Targets as AAPL and COST Fall Short

MAGS ETF: A Critical Junction

The weekly chart for the $Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$ ETF (Magnificent Seven) suggests the worst of the bearish move may be behind us. The lower Bollinger Band was breached and oscillators reached oversold territory, conditions that mirrored the April 2025 bottom. As noted above, several securities have recently breached their Central Weekly Level (CWL) reversing from their (bearish) setups. This essential weekly price line is modeled every Friday for 44 core securities. Paid subscribers also have the exclusive benefit of suggesting five additional tickers from their personal watchlists each weekend. For the coming week, the MAGS ETF must hold above $61.8 to maintain its current bullish reversal setup. A successful hold targets $63.5 as
MAGS ETF: A Critical Junction

SPX/NDX Composite: Tech Rebound Led by NVDA & Amazon

U.S. equities finished the holiday-shortened week with solid gains, snapping multi-week losing streaks. The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ surged 1.5% for the week to end a five-week slide, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ advanced 1.1% and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ secured a 0.3% weekly gain. Friday saw broad strength across the market. Market momentum shifted dramatically on Friday following a landmark legal decision that outweighed concerning economic data. Early reports revealed that fourth-quarter economic growth slowed to 1.4%, significantly missing the 3.0% consensus forecast. Inflation metrics also ran hot, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rising 2.9% ye
SPX/NDX Composite: Tech Rebound Led by NVDA & Amazon

S&P 500 & Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF: Oversold Bounce, $61.8 Key

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Weak price action, but the chart may be interesting for bulls, even for a potential short-term bounce, considering the Stochastic crossover (none invalidated for several months), and the recovery of the 5DMA. $Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF(MAGS)$ Most of the bearish move may be in considering the lower Bollinger breached and the oscillator getting oversold in the weekly timeframe. To keep momentum, this ETF must stay above $61.8 next week. 100 likes 30 reposts to continue tracking this ETF with price levels. $Apple(AAPL)$ $Alpha
S&P 500 & Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF: Oversold Bounce, $61.8 Key

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