The week was characterized by strong swings in indices and individual names; geopolitical tensions intensified following U.S. retaliatory military strikes against targets in Iran in response to attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, this sent global oil benchmarks soaring, with Brent crude jumping over 5% and nearing the $80-per-barrel mark. This spike in energy prices immediately reignited fears regarding persistent inflation, and when combined with Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggesting potential further interest rate hikes, the 10 year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.6%, reaching its highest level since May. Later in the week the U.S. president noted that while he has agreed to continue diplomatic talks, the tentative truce has officially been scrapped; then the mar

The stock market closed with an interesting reversal today. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ held its daily level of 7464 as support (modeled yesterday after the market closed), attempting to consolidate at 7,506 during the first hour of trading and filling the early gap. This established a clean, bullish move for the day without magnets below. In this case, the SPX is validating the bullish reversal candle studied last night, providing direction to the setup charted (which featured combined signals and for that reason we use levels). The fact that the central daily level held as support, while the price remains above the central weekly and monthly levels, indicates a bullish formation. As noted over the weekend, we have been closely monitoring technology

U.S. stocks closed mixed today following a re-escalation in geopolitical tensions. Main market indexes experienced a highly volatile session, initially tumbling before trimming some losses. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ fell-1.1%, probably an initial validation of the overheated signals studied for the previous week, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed slightly negative -0.3%, and the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ closed +0.3% despite of the selloff in premarket this morning. SMH Bounced +2%, How is it Possible? Last night, I shared the $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ chart with subscribers, highlighting a bullish reversal candle at the lower band

Navigating the Semiconductor Crack and Magnificent Seven Bounce The U.S. stock market closed a holiday-shortened week with gains across large-cap indices, sentiment was fueled by a cooler-than-expected June jobs report, which eased immediate fears of aggressive interest rate hikes and encouraged a rotation out of tech and into blue-chip companies. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ reached a new all-time high, gaining 2.0% for the week, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 1.7% to close at 7,483.24, while the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ added 0.7%; our well expected decline in semiconductors kept the tech-heavy index underperforming. The Federal Reserve, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, maintains a

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ July ranks as one of the most bullish months of the year, finishing positive 79% of the time. during the last 20 year. However, if you zoom out further and analyze a different historical period, such as 1990 to 2006, the statistics completely invert, making July one of the most bearish periods of the year. Always do your own charting and verify statistics Semiconductors are cracking and the Magnificent Seven are Bouncing as considered last Saturday in the Weekly Compass. SPX bounced to 7,491 🎯 (+2%) as expected, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ to 388 🎯 (+3.4%), $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ to 125 🎯 (+11%). Reversal now? High probability setups updated

Monthly levels set the structural tone for bullish or bearish momentum in an index or stock, while also serving as major boundaries that frame price action. For example, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ traded during June between 233 and 191, which marked the resistance and support boundaries around the Central Monthly Level (CML) of 214. Once the CML was breached on June 5th, it validated a bearish momentum flip. A similar pattern played out with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ : once it lost its CML on June 5th, price found support at 7,302. What makes today’s price action interesting is the recovery back to 7,451, which is the Central Monthly Level for the month ending. Below are the monthly levels for July. The recent bounce h

Heavy trading volume has sparked renewed optimism across both the broader market and Apple, reinforcing the possibility of a short-term rebound. However, key technical levels remain under pressure. Whether buyers can sustain momentum this week will determine if the recovery gains traction or proves to be another temporary bounce within the prevailing downtrend. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ The high volume across the Magnificent Seven on Friday opened the door for today's bounce. To invalidate the recent pattern of early-week rallies that fade by Tuesday or Wednesday, price action must hold the current zone, otherwise the bearish diagonal will be revalidated. 2. $Apple(AAPL)$ Friday's gigantic volume signals val

Technical indicators are highlighting two contrasting setups among the AI megacaps. While NVIDIA is attempting a bullish reversal from oversold conditions, Alphabet is flashing a historically significant weekly MACD bearish crossover, putting traders on alert for the next major move. 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The oscillator is attempting an bullish crossover in oversold zone. The last two instances brought tactical bounces, and the one prior a 20% rally. Gaps exist both ways; bulls need 189 cleared for good. Will NVDA come to the rescue if $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ and $Micron Technology(MU)$ keep consolidating? 2. $Alphabet(GOOG)$

The macroeconomic environment for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has undergone a severe hawkish turn, fundamentally altering the trajectory of the broader market. The confluence of reaccelerating inflation, driven by geopolitical energy shocks and rising service sector costs, has forced the Federal Reserve to completely abandon any prospect of rate cuts for 2026. Instead, the market must now digest the reality of an active monetary tightening cycle. The broader market remains entrenched in a rotational phase. The technology sector is facing mounting pressure. We are observing a sequence of weakness that originated in software, transitioned into the Magnificent Seven, and is now sending its first warning ripples through the semiconductor space. Is this su

Markets remain at a critical technical inflection point. While the $SPX was rejected at key resistance, $QQQ is now testing major support, setting the stage for the market's next directional move. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ As posted last night in my daily note (subscribe, link in bio): 7,412 was a resistance zone to consider; the $MU euphoria could find rejection there. The top of the day was $7,419🎯 and the structure is still weak. 2. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $QQQ is sitting right on the edge. It found support at the 50DMA, while the 20DMA is curling down. If that 50DMA fails, the lack of volume at price could trigger a rapid trapdoor move straight toward the 682 gap. Every week, I publish high-probability setups.

In yesterday’s market update, I highlighted the confluence zone at 7,411.9 for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , a daily level I flagged to paid subscribers anticipating a potential bull trap following the after-hours rally sparked by $Micron Technology(MU)$ ’s earnings. SPX’s high today reached 7,419 🎯, validating the relevance of that resistance zone. For $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ , I flagged 724.9 as a critical level; today’s high of 726.8 🎯 confirmed the sentiment shift and showed resistance holding stronger than support lines. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ presented a similar case, I noted 646.6 as crucial for momentum confirmation,

Over the weekend, the Weekly Compass anticipated a bearish reversal for the market. This anticipation came despite the rally the market printed on Friday because, as mentioned then, many elements remained bearish beneath the surface. The Setups Blueprint highlighted strong probabilities for a bearish reversal in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , targeting 7,409 for a 1.2% drop. The actual low for the week reached 7,336.8, representing a 2% decline from Friday’s close 🎯. Another high-probability setup was a bearish reversal for $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ . I indicated that 646.6 would be breached, triggering a confirmed target of 629.3 for a 4.6% decline. The actual low hit 607 🎯 for an 8% drop, closely approa

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ is at all-time highs while the Fear and Greed Index shows fear. Should you use this index to time the market? No. Is the divergence worth considering as a risk warning? Absolutely, recent ATH at fear levels preceded pullbacks, caution is key. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ : Semiconductors is the most crowded trade, and individual names as $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ and $Micron Technology(MU)$ are showing signs of consolidation with significant intra-week swings. Capital rotates, it's not surprising to see the Mag7 ( $NVIDIA(NVDA)$