Before we dive into the 50-year historical study, let’s look at how our high-probability setups from last Saturday’s Weekly Compass are performing. Of the nine setups identified, seven remain active in the expected direction: $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ : +3.1% (Bullish as expected) $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ / Bitcoin: +3.9% / +4.2% (Bullish as expected since a month ago!) Silver ( $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$ ): +2.7% (Bullish as expected) $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ : +2.5% (Bullish as expected) $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ : +2.0% (Bullish as expected) $Berkshire

Back on March 28, I highlighted in this publication how likely was the market to bounce, the call was unpopular, but my role is to assess the price action with neutrality, when the market is exhausted I call it for both directions, and that was the case back then. I highlight technical conditions, not news, not noise, price action generally precedes them, and this time was no different like in the tariff war in 2025, the further inflation fears in 2022. My statements included: “Oversold conditions have been seriously reached”, “If the market does not set a relief bounce next week, it would be against the trend of the last 25 years including the dot com and the great financial crisis” My analysis is clear and specific: I use indicators to identify potential reversals, and I use modeled pric

The week ending April 24 delivered a technically rich but internally divided market. $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ consolidated as anticipated in the previous Weekly Compass, with the SPX filling its gap at $7,051.2 as likely considered. Tech $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ surged +2.4% for the week, and the semiconductor sector printed a +9.1% breakout reaching unprecedented overbought conditions that we will study today. The Three Green Soldiers pattern on the SPX and NDX weekly chart mentioned last week is in bullish play, and Bitcoin continues moving north since it was anticipated three weeks ago. The cryptocurrency has gained +13.7% since, and Ethereum +9.9%. B

Every industrial revolution has its toll booths. In the railroad era the toll booths were the trunk lines. In the internet era they were the operating systems. In the era now unfolding, the toll booths are the enterprise software platforms that sit between raw AI capability and the workflows that actually run the modern economy. These are the companies that own the data, the user identities, the audit trails, the sales pipelines, the creative pipelines, the security telemetry, and the service tickets. They are the rails that intelligence has to ride on if it wants to do useful work inside a public company, a federal agency, or a global bank. During the last months, the software stocks have been impacted in a significant way, but today they’re signaling reversals, the question is: Is that s

Price action is becoming more nuanced, with the S&P 500 flashing short-term caution signals while the Nasdaq 100 strengthens on a higher timeframe basis. This divergence sets up a key moment for traders to watch both support levels and momentum confirmation. 1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ The gap was filled with a bearish engulfing candle as the RSI fell from overbought levels (70). A tactical pullback/consolidation usually follows. Given the afternoon's indecisive price action, keep a close eye on $7,021; if lost tomorrow, the decline could deepen. 2. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ Over the last 10 years, bullish Stochastic crossovers on the weekly chart have ma

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ During the last 2 years, RSI 70+ triggered pullbacks 8/10 times. The other 2 instances saw flat consolidations. 80% chances for a healthy pullback? Pullbacks post-2025 rally were mild. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ And rapid 10% rallies in 10 days historically show strong follow-through. Data indicates a +0.6% average move 1 week later, +2.5% at 1 month, and +17% after a year. Even in exceptions like 2000, the trend holds for the first 3 months before pathways diverge.