$SPY Triggers Sixth 200SMA Event as History Points to +35% Bounce

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ closed below the 200-day SMA 6 times in history.

Every single time, it recovered.

Here's every time it broke, what caused it, and the return after it crossed back above 200SMA again:

🔴 Sep 2000 – Apr 2003 (31 months)

Dot-Com bubble burst. Trillions in overvalued tech stocks imploded.

Drawdown: −49% | 1Y return after: +33%

🔴 Jan 2008 – Jun 2009 (17 months)

Global Financial Crisis. Overleveraged banks, toxic mortgage debt collapsed.

Drawdown: −57% | 1Y return after: +45%

🟡 Aug 2011 – Oct 2011 (3 months)

US credit downgraded for the first time ever. Euro debt crisis erupted.

Drawdown: −21% | 1Y return after: +27%

🟣 Feb 2020 – Jul 2020 (4.5 months)

COVID-19 shut down the global economy overnight.

Drawdown: −34% | 1Y return after: +43%

🔵 Jan 2022 – Feb 2023 (12.5 months)

Fed hiked rates at the fastest pace in 40 years to kill inflation.

Drawdown: −25% | 1Y return after: +26%

🟠 Feb 2025 – Mar 2025 (1.5 months) ← WE ARE HERE

Tariff war shock rattled global markets. SPY hit $481.

Drawdown: −31% | 1Y return after: +40%

Avg 1Y return after crossing back above the 200SMA: +35%

Episode 6 just triggered. The market has never NOT recovered. This time it will recover fast as soon as the WAR is over.

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