Last year, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ crashed 17% from $580 to $480 when Trump threatened Tariffs. It took 6 weeks before SPY reclaimed it! This year, Trump says no ceasefire with Iran. SPY broke 200SMA at $660 on Wednesday. This is NOT GOOD: 1. US–Iran War → Uncertainty + Inflation Geopolitical instability raises risk premiums and keeps inflation sticky, pressuring equities. 2. Oil Spike → Cost Shock Across Economy Higher oil flows into food, transport, and shelter → squeezes consumers and margins. 3. Energy Strain → Data Centers & Chips Hit AI + data centers require massive power → rising energy costs hurt tech growth multiples. 4. FOMC Risk → Higher for Longer Rates Sticky inflation + war risk = Fed stays hawkish → valuation compressi

DAILY MARKET UPDATE — March 18 • Chart Analysis • News Brief • Trade Idea • Trading Tip CHART ANALYSIS $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is now moving into FOMC positioning after holding the recent bounce off the $662 low. Price is attempting to stabilize here, but we are still in a broader decision range. PPI came in hotter than expected, with both headline and core elevated. This reinforces that inflation remains sticky and keeps pressure on the Fed heading into today’s FOMC. Key levels today: • $667–$668 — must hold for short-term bullish momentum • $662 — key downside pivot NWOG • $672 → $675 — upside targets if strength continues If SPY holds above $667, we can see continuation toward $672 and possibly $676. If we lose that level, $662 becomes

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$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ closed below the 200-day SMA 6 times in history. Every single time, it recovered. Here's every time it broke, what caused it, and the return after it crossed back above 200SMA again: 🔴 Sep 2000 – Apr 2003 (31 months) Dot-Com bubble burst. Trillions in overvalued tech stocks imploded. Drawdown: −49% | 1Y return after: +33% 🔴 Jan 2008 – Jun 2009 (17 months) Global Financial Crisis. Overleveraged banks, toxic mortgage debt collapsed. Drawdown: −57% | 1Y return after: +45% 🟡 Aug 2011 – Oct 2011 (3 months) US credit downgraded for the first time ever. Euro debt crisis erupted. Drawdown: −21% | 1Y return after: +27% 🟣 Feb 2020 – Jul 2020 (4.5 months) COVID-19 shut down the global economy overnight. Drawdown: −34% | 1Y re

Most people think rising oil $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2604(MCLmain)$ prices only hit you at the gas pump. They're wrong. Oil above $100 raises your RENT or mortgage even if you never drive a car: 1. Oil spikes. Energy is in everything. Gas, diesel, heating oil all jump 40–90%. 2. Inflation surges. Higher transport + energy costs ripple into every good & service you buy. CPI explodes. 3. The Fed panics. To kill inflation, the Fed raises interest rates. In 2022 alone they hiked 11 times the fastest pace in 40 years. 4. Mortgage rates skyrocket. Mortgage rates track the Fed. They went from 3% → 8% between 2021 and 2023. $400K mortgage at 3% = $1,686/mo $400K mortgage at 8% = $2,935/mo That's +$1,249/mo for the SAME house. 5. Homeowners re

1 year ago, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ broke DISTRIBUTION PHASE on Feb 28, 2025. It then dropped from $580 to $480. This year on March 10, this phase is confirmed by a massive rejection at $677. I'll explain what triggered the breakdown and then where I think the SPY will bounce. SPY most likely (80%) would have bottomed in March/April 2026. US mid-terms is coming, the war can't drag on too long and Trump knows this. 5 triggers cuasing this breakdown: 1. US and IRAN war dragging on longer then 1 month 2. March 18 FOMC will be hawkish (no rate cuts and too much uncertainty) 3. US labor market clearly cooling off becuase of AI. 4. AI uncertainty and its impacts on labour 5. War causing inflation to spike and oil/commodities to spike Make sure

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ broke this DOWNTREND (bullish if we can stay above it towards $672) I give my technical analysis at BELOW for you to read. PCE came in flat, giving the market no clear macro signal. Direction now depends on 5 catalysts: 1. US–Iran war duration conflict extending past 1 month raises energy risk and volatility. 2. AI sector momentum currently peaking while supply chains face disruption from the conflict. 3. Labour market cooling continued downward revisions suggest slowing growth. 4. FOMC (March 18) policy tone will be critical for rate expectations. 5. March inflation risk oil trading above $100/bbl could push CPI higher next month. Technically, SPY remains in a short-term downtrend and is consolidating near key lev

DAILY MARKET UPDATE for March 12: • chart analysis • news brief 1.CHART ANALYSIS: $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is pulling back as the market reassesses the Iran conflict. Early optimism faded after reports suggested Iran remains largely intact, increasing the probability of a longer conflict. That uncertainty is weighing on equities. Technically, SPY remains in a clear daily downtrend. On the 5-minute chart, price has repeatedly failed to break above the trendline, confirming continued selling pressure. Key levels: Resistance: • $673.50 • $676 Support: • $670 • $668 If $662 breaks, the next major downside target is $656 near the 200 SMA. Watch the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ closely. If it spikes abov

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ has been ripping since it bounced off $660 on Monday due to Trump's positive comments about the war at 2pm EST. SPY hit a high $683.36 last night. On the way back down towards $680 it broke the uptrend for the first time in 2 days here. For today, it will have fight to stay above $680 to continue it bullish move. If it breaks down below $675 then $671-$672 is my target. CPI data fairly flat for February but it won't be for March and the market knows this. The war on IRAN and US is still going on the strait of hormuz is still closed. This still causes uncertainty for what will happen on FOMC on March 18. Which I think right now it will be hawkish. SPY can’t find direction as crude pushes toward $90 due to escalating

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ distribution on break $680 and $676 rejection is confirmed. Distribution happens after a strong move up when smart money begin selling to late buyers. Price stops trending up past $697 moves sideways near the highs, forming a range between resistance $697 and support $677. Many traders believe the market is simply consolidating before another breakout, but institutions are actually selling into the buying pressure. 3 key signs of distribution: #1. Failed breakouts. Price may briefly push above resistance but quickly falls back into the range. This means buyers tried to push higher, but sellers absorbed the demand. #2. Momentum weakens. Even within the range, price struggles to make strong new highs and starts formi

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ LESSON OF THE DAY (wait for confirmation): There are 3 candles here. Only 1 is confirmation that this has reversed towards. Which one is it? It is 3. The first candle to CLOSE above the key level at 675. CANDLE close is confirmation, candle moving up and down is information about what is happening but it is not confirmation. If the CANDLE doesn't close above the the KEY LEVEL its still bearish and sellers are in control. Being patient means waiting for the close. Yes, you will get a HIGHER PRICE but the probability is higher when a candle closes especially on the BIGGER time frame like 5mins or 10min. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimit

THIS IS NOT NORMAL. Korea’s KOSPI nearly erased all its gains for the year in a single day. Down ~20%. Not a correction. Not profit taking. Everyone says the reason is this: • Iran tensions • Strait of Hormuz threats • Oil spiking But that’s only the surface story. Something deeper just cracked. The AI supply chain. Samsung and SK Hynix control the backbone of AI memory. → ~70% of global DRAM → ~80% of high-bandwidth memory Every AI model. Every hyperscaler buildout. Every NVDA cluster. They all depend on it. And those fabs depend on energy. Energy flowing through a 21-mile strait now under military threat. 3 shocks hit at the same time: 1️⃣ AI funding concentrated in the Middle East 2️⃣ Memory supply risk if Hormuz closes 3️⃣ Oil spike pushing inflation higher One event US and IRAN fighti

IRAN is blowing up DUBAI. This means BUY THE DIP: For every major war since 1990 the market has bounced up hard! You need to understand what the data says. August 1990. Iraq invades Kuwait. The $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ drops −16.9% over 71 days. Every headline screams sell. Every pundit says it's over. The people who sold at the bottom locked in a 16.9% loss. The people who bought at the bottom made 24.2% in under 5 months. September 11, 2001. The worst attack in American history. Markets close for 4 days. SPY drops −11.6% in a single week. The world feels like it is ending. The market bottomed on September 21st. By December it had recovered +21.2% from that low. In 10 weeks. March 2003. The U.S. invades Iraq. The market had already sold o

Iran fired missiles at 5 countries at the same time. This shocks global markets. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ bleeds next week. Here’s how I’d trade it same setup, same discipline every time. This is the kind of geopolitical trigger markets use to reprice risk before FOMC on March 18. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ just posted record earnings and still sold off hard. That tells you positioning was crowded. SPY could flush below $680. If it DOES, my target is $670. Near that level I’d look at SPY calls. Panic drops often reverse fast. Headline inflation is still running around 3% year-over-year, above the Fed’s 2% target. Core services remain sticky. Unemployment rate sits near 4%, and monthly job gains have averaged